Looks like SARS will go to zero by month's end.

World Health Organization ^ | June 15, 2003 | StACase

[StACase]

The important statistic with regard to diseases such as SARS is, in my opinion, the number of active cases. WHO and News organizations don't report this stat. However, WHO since April 10th has reported total number of cases, deaths and recoveries from which the number active cases can easily be derived. So, if my Excel® generated chart of that data is correct, SARS will hit "Zero" active cases before the end of June.

[TaxRelief]

Posts 89,90,91 and 92 were a stutter on the part of Opera in conjunction with ATTglobal.net and my enter key. I have resorted to AOL (eek!) until I can get to the bottom of the problem.

Sorry...

[DPB101]

SARS will hit "Zero" active cases before the end of June.

Good research. I thought it would be early fall before SARS killed everyone on the planet.

[Betty Jo]

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/detail.asp?ID=38546&GRP=B

"Gov't to clairify true causes of SARS deaths"

[Betty Jo]

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/eastasia/view/42179/html

"Taiwan on Saturday reports one new SARS case and two deaths"

[blam]

"Lee Lung-teng, deputy chief of the Department of Health (DOH), revealed that a journalist last week raised questions concerning the accuracy of the data sent by Taiwan health authorities to the World Health Organization (WHO) concerning two sets of figures: 81 deaths of SARS patients and 331 deaths involving suspected cases."

Didn't we read that 363 dead people had been incinerated?

[Betty Jo]

You are right,I think.I'll go google for the number again.

[Betty Jo]

A whole bunch of hits say 363. So,where did the rest go?

[dc-zoo]

What happened to Judith Anne? We haven't seen her post for days. I miss her presence here on the sars threads. She always has thought provoking comments and good information. Just hope she hasn't left because of the disruptors.

[blam]

"What happened to Judith Anne? We haven't seen her post for days. I miss her presence here on the sars threads. She always has thought provoking comments and good information. Just hope she hasn't left because of the disruptors."

Don't know, she took a whole lot more than I would have. Her last post was at 8:29 AM, 6-10-2003.

[Redcloak]

I'm telling ya... This summer's blockbuster news story will be Monkeypox, not SARS. It's this year's "shark bite". Now if we could only get poxed monkeys to bite tourists on the beach...

[Future Useless Eater]

"Lee Lung-teng, deputy chief of the Department of Health (DOH), revealed that a journalist last week raised questions concerning the accuracy of the data sent by Taiwan health authorities to the World Health Organization (WHO) concerning two sets of figures: 81 deaths of SARS patients and 331 deaths involving suspected cases."
The same question was also raised by members of the Control Yuan

This is the first I realized THERE WERE TWO allegations in Taiwan of under-reported deaths.

Apparently a JOURNALIST found out that Taiwan had 81 'probable' SARS deaths, PLUS 331 'suspected' SARS patient deaths. The article also implies this was reported to the WHO, but the WHO only publishes 'probable' cases.

This gives us 3 sources of info saying about the same thing...
     -the journalist that found death numbers (412 total)
     -the watchdog group that found cremation numbers (363 total)
     -extrapolation of death rates from before the bogus flat-lines (roughly 400 dead)

[I feel it was a big mistake for the news media and WHO to ignore 'suspected' SARS cases. It is being so badly abused now that the 'probable' counts are almost meaningless. Hospitals STILL have to treat 'suspected' SARS the same as 'probable's, and the hospitals still fill up. HCW's still get infected from 'suspected' cases, and frequently after 14-21 days, the 'suspected' cases get upgraded to 'probable' cases or sometimes even die.]

Taiwan reports THREE times as many 'suspected' SARS patients as 'probable's. And we KNOW China has a HUGE number more, since their skyrocketing charts also abruptly flatlined in their 'outland' areas, and we all knew here that those areas would have the most trouble treating SARS.

[Future Useless Eater]

One of Betty Jo's links led me to a SARS page at Black Hawk College in Moline IL that I found very interesting.

One of their links was a set of SARS predictions made on April 23rd.
Those predictions assumed that 'if' SARS were not containable worldwide and if it kept spreading (under various scenarios), where would the numbers be all the way out thru October 31st 2003:

Their chart shows 3 columns, worst-case, best-case, and AVERAGE. I feel their column called "AVERAGE" represented their 'most likely' scenario. I also feel the number in that column predicted for TODAY was pretty close to right-on! 16-June = 17,000 'probable' PLUS 'suspected' patients to date.

[I feel the news media should not have completely ignored the 'suspected' cases because hospitals still need to treat those patients the same, AND many go on to being 'probable', or even die. Hospitals still fill up from 'suspected' patients, and it is taking as long as 14-21 days for 'suspected' cases to get converted to the 'probable' category in some areas.]

Here are some extractions from their 'most likely' column, PREDICTED IN APRIL!

• June 16.... 17k 'probable' and 'suspected' cases to date (worldwide)
• June 30.... 26k 'probable' and 'suspected' cases to date
• July 31.... 61k 'probable' and 'suspected' cases to date
• Aug 31....145k 'probable' and 'suspected' cases to date
• (I'll stop there because the naysayers will scream) but remember if these numbers are close, that is when Asian freshmen students will be packing up and flying to USA colleges and 'dorm'ing with our children.

Oh, and let's not forget how sloppy Canada got after it's travel warning was lifted...
China has JUST HAD it's travel warnings lifted in most of those areas with bogus containment curves that abruptly flatlined.

[Future Useless Eater]

Betty Jo and aristeides, I think you are on to something with your posts of mycoplasmosis as a co-infection and/or a CYA to avoid labelling deaths as SARS related...

Here are some interesting summaries from articles at bhc.edu on the effects of other viruses vs mycoplasmosis...

• These results show that sialodacryoadenitis virus infection can exacerbate respiratory mycoplasmosis in rats under experimental conditions; therefore, the virus probably also contributes to expression of naturally occurring mycoplasmosis.
  
  
• Rats reinfected at 6 or 9 months were infectious to their naive cage mates. The results indicate that reinfection with homologous rat coronavirus can occur as early as 6 months after the initial infection, and such rats can transmit the infection to contact controls.
  
  
• Based on these results, it is evident that SDAV enhances lower respiratory tract disease in Wistar rats whether exposure occurs at one week prior to or at various intervals following M. pulmonis infections.
  
  
• These studies show that SDAV is infectious for mice and can be a pathogen for the respiratory system. Thus, SDAV infection of mice may be responsible for spurious seroconversions to MHV.

http://www.bhc.edu/eastcampus/leeb/aids/images/SARSsialodacryoadenitis.doc

[Betty Jo]

I was wondering the same thing. Maybe she went on vacation.

[jacquej]

Looks like Dr. Niman has it nailed in this sarcastic post to Agonist...

CARS Epidemic in Toronto Area
« on: Today at 05:00:56am »

It seems that Toronto has been struck with another epidemic.  This time its CARS (Confusing Acute Respiratory Syndrome aka Conflicting Acute Respiratory Syndrome).  It is a fatal disease very similar to SARS but requires a "confused" or "conflicted" statement by a physician, researcher, or elected official. 

The "confused" part requires multiple PCR tests.  If a patient tests positive repeatedly for SARS CoV, additional tests are run until "conflicting" results are obtained, followed by a confused or conflicted statement.  See below for an example. 

The treatment for CARS is a SARS epidemic (SARS clusters are no longer effective), which forces physicians, researchers, or government officials to reclassify CARS patients to SARS patients.

http://www.canoe.com/NewsStand/LondonFreePress/News/2003/06/17/112823.html

SARS test results confuse officials

They argue it's too soon to suggest the virus has spread because of conflicting test results.

[Betty Jo]

I had just read this.How about the "Bulgarian"?

[jacquej]

I have no clue, Betty. I am hoping against reason that SARS will die out, as the poster of the thread "predicts", but am not going to take off my "too-tightly-wrapped" aluminium chapeau just yet.

Any more mycoplasma pneumonia cases in North Carolina will just make me wrap that fashionable cap ever tighter...

(sardonic smile)

[Betty Jo]

http://www.owensoundsuntimes.com/

Click on "Local man had SARS"

He had Influenza B also.

Retesting 3,000

Whats that going to do to your charts,engineer?

I dont know how to post the whole article,but this is holy cow material!

[TaxRelief]

I believe some people are on vacation for a couple weeks. Typical summer ins and outs.

[harpseal]

Let us see what hapens in two weeks shall we. You have made your prediction and if you are right I expect a flag to your thread stating you were right. If you are wrong I likewise expect a flag to your thread stating you were wrong.

I shall congratulate you if you were right and praise you for your wisdom. If wrong then I shall make not of the fact that you tried to minimize a potential threat on insufficient or eroneous data.

My Crystal ball doesn't work so I can not make either judgement yet. If you are right and we take no further precautions about SARS then we have no problems. If you are wrong and as a result we do not take sufficient precautions against this reported disease then you shall share some of the blame for any future fatalities.

I for one do not like making unqualified predictions unless I am absolutely sure I am correct. You are on the record as to what you predict for the future. Let us hope you are right.