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Patient Hospitalized For Possible SARS Exposure Dies; Tests Come Back Negative
WRAL Raleigh, North Carolina ^ | 2003-06-13 | Reporter: Stephanie Hawco, OnLine Producers: Michelle Singer and Kamal Wallace

Posted on 06/13/2003 8:12:38 PM PDT by Lessismore

Edited on 04/13/2004 2:55:51 AM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. -- One of two patients being monitored in the Triangle for possible exposure to SARS died Friday. Preliminary tests from the Centers for Disease Control were negative. Meanwhile, dozens of people in the Triangle are under quarantine for possible exposure to SARS.


(Excerpt) Read more at wral.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: americansars; canada; coronavirus; heraldwave; incubationperiod; jamesdreed; niman; northcarolina; quarantine; sars; superspreader; toronto; unc; virus
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To: aristeides
Re your #56

I am confused again!

This article says that "ribavirin" combined with an AIDS drug is helpful.

Earlier articles I thought said "ribavirin" caused damage to the liver and other organs?

61 posted on 06/14/2003 5:55:56 PM PDT by Betty Jo
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To: Betty Jo; _Jim
As _Jim keeps reminding us, I'm just a lawyer. I'm not qualified to give medical advice.
62 posted on 06/14/2003 6:02:48 PM PDT by aristeides
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To: aristeides; blam; Judith Anne; TaxRelief; backhoe; CathyRyan
http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/sars/story/0,4395,192095,00.html

Like this one.
63 posted on 06/14/2003 6:06:11 PM PDT by Betty Jo
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To: FL_engineer
Thanks for the ping
64 posted on 06/14/2003 6:26:24 PM PDT by firewalk
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To: The Great Satan; Mitchell; Shermy; Badabing Badaboom
I know you guys hang more with the anthrax clique but you need to check these SARS transmissibility figures out.
65 posted on 06/14/2003 6:35:09 PM PDT by txhurl
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To: aristeides; FL_engineer
and this one
http://www.ajc.com/health/content/shared-auto/healthnews/prss/513699.html

Ribavirin is talked about in "Can Good N Plenty Fights SARS?"

Also note the University of North Carolina "Researcher Resigns Amid Fraud Allegations"

Fl_Engineer,any charts showing which patients got which drugs and...how long each patient lived?

66 posted on 06/14/2003 6:38:30 PM PDT by Betty Jo
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To: txflake
He said he was surprised to find the virus in about 20 per cent of an additional 250 people who were not suspected of having SARS but who were tested because they had come to Canada from affected areas in Asia or who had mild symptoms not thought to be SARS.


So let's do the math here.... 50 people not suspected of carrying SARS are in the meantime contacting how many people over a weeks' time? Say, 150 per person? 7500 people they may have come into contact with - if 20% of these are infected, that's .... 1500 people?

Is my math right here? Do I have SARS and not know it?




If I may expand upon the math a bit

N(t) ~ (TN0/gr ) exp( grt ) ,

gr = (ptnh - 1)/ T

Typically, there is a period T (the transmittable interval) of a day to several days during which an infected person can give a virus to another person. The rapidness by which a disease spreads is determined by a number of factors:

          (1) the number of people N0 who are initially infected and are in the transmittable interval,
          (2) the average number of healthy people nh that come in contact with infected people during the transmittable interval, and
          (3) the probability pt that a healthy person contracts the disease when in the vicinity of an infected person.


If medical methods and modern science do not intervene then the number of people N(t) infected at time t grows exponentially:

In other words, transmissible diseases with gr > 0 should spread significantly. The growth constant gr determines the rate of new cases.

     Because of the increase in world population, people live more closely together and nh is greater today than anytime in the past. Two things that affect the transmission probability pt are
(a) the nature of the virus itself (some viruses such as influenza are more easily passed from one person to another) and
(b) the natural immunity of some people to a virus because of genetic factors or of previous exposure to similar viruses.

     If ptnh can be made less than one, then the virus will not spread. Vaccines slow the growth of a disease by reducing pt:
vaccinated people are immune even if they encounter an infected person. It might not be possible to find a vaccine for SARS because coronaviruses mutate quickly.

Even if it is possible, it is unlikely that it will be available this year since it takes considerable time to develop vaccines. The approach of health officials has therefore been to reduce nh: Patients are quarantined so that they do not come in contact with others. This is manageable only if the number of people infected is relatively small.

67 posted on 06/14/2003 6:48:34 PM PDT by Logical Extinction (Reality is often much more frightening than fiction...)
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To: aristeides; FL_engineer
Or this one

http://www.nbc17.com/health/2085933/detail.html

See "Is the use of ribavirin".....

Are the terrs watching these experiments and plotting whats next?
68 posted on 06/14/2003 6:48:50 PM PDT by Betty Jo
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To: FL_engineer
http://www.freedomsite.org/pipermail/fs_announce/2003/001096.html

Scrool down to "Yet by days end" to see some "ethnicity"

Hmmmm....

Also note smoking,diabetes etc in victims

I smell some charts!
69 posted on 06/14/2003 7:02:54 PM PDT by Betty Jo
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To: Logical Extinction
Thank you.

So.... what's your gut feel? Math aside, is it time to closely examine our vulnerability, daily?

70 posted on 06/14/2003 7:02:57 PM PDT by txhurl
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To: FL_engineer
Is 'Becky is Right' on your ping list? (Freeper handle is NOT spelled correctly)

She has A LOT Of research about NC and terrorism? Was she pinged? If not, I will find her correct freeper spelling and ping her. She needs to be on this thread.
71 posted on 06/14/2003 7:19:32 PM PDT by Calpernia (Remember the three R's: Respect for self; Respect for others; Responsibility for all your actions.)
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To: FL_engineer
CORRECTION! I meant Betty Jo I just went back and found the bookmarks of the Freeper I was mentioning. And I see she is already on this thread. So never mind. Thanks for all your research!
72 posted on 06/14/2003 7:34:05 PM PDT by Calpernia (Remember the three R's: Respect for self; Respect for others; Responsibility for all your actions.)
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To: txflake
In another thread we discussed the implications of applying epidemiological equations to the SARS outbreaks.

My position remains that until we can establish the value of T (within normal limits), all bets are off.


73 posted on 06/14/2003 7:46:30 PM PDT by Logical Extinction (Reality is often much more frightening than fiction...)
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To: Logical Extinction
I think analyzing airline data for traffic to/from asiatic hotspots may help.

It seems that int'l trade data may help us extrapolate risk by city.

I am still concerned that the Mongolian geneset is more susceptible... our Mexican population may be sitting ducks.

Thanks again.

74 posted on 06/14/2003 7:55:09 PM PDT by txhurl
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To: FL_engineer
Interesting...

>>>If you develop a fever while this bug is around, NEVER take ANY FEVER REDUCER in order to continue your normal schedule,
(even that daily aspirin).

THAT could prove fatal.
>>>>

The past two weeks has had a LOT of 'take aspirin as a cure all' commercials all OVER 1010wins radio. Makes ridiculous claims of taking aspirin on a daily basis to prevent the sky from falling type correlations.

/tin foil hat

75 posted on 06/14/2003 8:03:29 PM PDT by Calpernia (Remember the three R's: Respect for self; Respect for others; Responsibility for all your actions.)
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To: Betty Jo
Ribiviran side effects may not be worth what little the drug does to help. The most useful treatment info so far has come out of Germany (as usual).

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/928434/posts
76 posted on 06/14/2003 8:26:34 PM PDT by TaxRelief
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To: jacquej; aristeides; Betty Jo; blam
I am an NC freeper and I am getting local info. There are 12 workers from the physicians office and 3 hospital workers who are supposed to be released from quarantine today. There are several family members who can get out of quarantine at the beginning of the week.

We have a local freep going to get the building sterilized. Apparently Mr Engels didn't realize how long SARS lives on surfaces.

Local health officials, like Dr. Niman, are concerned that that the dead man will prove to be a super spreader. People at UNC CH are totally freaking out. The big concern is this: did the disease enter the campus before or after the school semester ended?

General question: Our kids have a swim meet in hickory, which includes the Raleigh area teams. Should they attend the meet or not?
77 posted on 06/14/2003 8:37:39 PM PDT by TaxRelief
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To: TaxRelief
"Should they attend the meet or not?"

I wouldn't but that is a tough call with you kids especially if it's a big event for them.

78 posted on 06/14/2003 8:44:11 PM PDT by blam
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To: Logical Extinction
What is known about the genetic profiles of those more likely to be infected vs. those least likely? (if that is known) SARS seems to me to be a disease that somehow works via the immune system. I keep running across this CCR5-D32 thing and immune system related diseases. SARS may cue on CCR5 cytokines for cell surface binding
79 posted on 06/14/2003 8:48:59 PM PDT by IYAAYAS (Live free or die trying)
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To: IYAAYAS
Rather than being a disease that works via the immune system, SARS seems to be causing an over reaction of the immune system, which is why people with aids, who have been exposed, have not apparently caught it (in Hong Kong and China).
80 posted on 06/14/2003 8:56:42 PM PDT by TaxRelief
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