Patient Hospitalized For Possible SARS Exposure Dies; Tests Come Back Negative

WRAL Raleigh, North Carolina ^ | 2003-06-13 | Reporter: Stephanie Hawco, OnLine Producers: Michelle Singer and Kamal Wallace

[Lessismore]

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. -- One of two patients being monitored in the Triangle for possible exposure to SARS died Friday. Preliminary tests from the Centers for Disease Control were negative. Meanwhile, dozens of people in the Triangle are under quarantine for possible exposure to SARS.

[Betty Jo]

Re your #56

I am confused again!

This article says that "ribavirin" combined with an AIDS drug is helpful.

Earlier articles I thought said "ribavirin" caused damage to the liver and other organs?

[aristeides]

As _Jim keeps reminding us, I'm just a lawyer. I'm not qualified to give medical advice.

[Betty Jo]

http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/sars/story/0,4395,192095,00.html

Like this one.

[firewalk]

Thanks for the ping

[txhurl]

I know you guys hang more with the anthrax clique but you need to check these SARS transmissibility figures out.

[Betty Jo]

and this one
http://www.ajc.com/health/content/shared-auto/healthnews/prss/513699.html

Ribavirin is talked about in "Can Good N Plenty Fights SARS?"

Also note the University of North Carolina "Researcher Resigns Amid Fraud Allegations"

Fl_Engineer,any charts showing which patients got which drugs and...how long each patient lived?

[Logical Extinction]

He said he was surprised to find the virus in about 20 per cent of an additional 250 people who were not suspected of having SARS but who were tested because they had come to Canada from affected areas in Asia or who had mild symptoms not thought to be SARS.

So let's do the math here.... 50 people not suspected of carrying SARS are in the meantime contacting how many people over a weeks' time? Say, 150 per person? 7500 people they may have come into contact with - if 20% of these are infected, that's .... 1500 people?

Is my math right here? Do I have SARS and not know it?

---

---

If I may expand upon the math a bit

N(t) ~ (TN₀/g_r ) exp( g_rt ) ,

g_r = (p_tn_h - 1)/ T

Typically, there is a period T (the transmittable interval) of a day to several days during which an infected person can give a virus to another person. The rapidness by which a disease spreads is determined by a number of factors:

          (1) the number of people N₀ who are initially infected and are in the transmittable interval,
          (2) the average number of healthy people n_h that come in contact with infected people during the transmittable interval, and
          (3) the probability p_t that a healthy person contracts the disease when in the vicinity of an infected person.


If medical methods and modern science do not intervene then the number of people N(t) infected at time t grows exponentially:

In other words, transmissible diseases with g_r > 0 should spread significantly. The growth constant g_r determines the rate of new cases.

     Because of the increase in world population, people live more closely together and n_h is greater today than anytime in the past. Two things that affect the transmission probability p_t are
(a) the nature of the virus itself (some viruses such as influenza are more easily passed from one person to another) and
(b) the natural immunity of some people to a virus because of genetic factors or of previous exposure to similar viruses.

     If p_tn_h can be made less than one, then the virus will not spread. Vaccines slow the growth of a disease by reducing p_t:
vaccinated people are immune even if they encounter an infected person. It might not be possible to find a vaccine for SARS because coronaviruses mutate quickly.

Even if it is possible, it is unlikely that it will be available this year since it takes considerable time to develop vaccines. The approach of health officials has therefore been to reduce n_h: Patients are quarantined so that they do not come in contact with others. This is manageable only if the number of people infected is relatively small.

[Betty Jo]

Or this one

http://www.nbc17.com/health/2085933/detail.html

See "Is the use of ribavirin".....

Are the terrs watching these experiments and plotting whats next?

[Betty Jo]

http://www.freedomsite.org/pipermail/fs_announce/2003/001096.html

Scrool down to "Yet by days end" to see some "ethnicity"

Hmmmm....

Also note smoking,diabetes etc in victims

I smell some charts!

[txhurl]

Thank you.

So.... what's your gut feel? Math aside, is it time to closely examine our vulnerability, daily?

[Calpernia]

Is 'Becky is Right' on your ping list? (Freeper handle is NOT spelled correctly)

She has A LOT Of research about NC and terrorism? Was she pinged? If not, I will find her correct freeper spelling and ping her. She needs to be on this thread.

[Calpernia]

CORRECTION! I meant Betty Jo I just went back and found the bookmarks of the Freeper I was mentioning. And I see she is already on this thread. So never mind. Thanks for all your research!

[Logical Extinction]

In another thread we discussed the implications of applying epidemiological equations to the SARS outbreaks.

My position remains that until we can establish the value of T (within normal limits), all bets are off.

[txhurl]

I think analyzing airline data for traffic to/from asiatic hotspots may help.

It seems that int'l trade data may help us extrapolate risk by city.

I am still concerned that the Mongolian geneset is more susceptible... our Mexican population may be sitting ducks.

Thanks again.

[Calpernia]

Interesting...

>>>If you develop a fever while this bug is around, NEVER take ANY FEVER REDUCER in order to continue your normal schedule,
(even that daily aspirin).

THAT could prove fatal.
>>>>

The past two weeks has had a LOT of 'take aspirin as a cure all' commercials all OVER 1010wins radio. Makes ridiculous claims of taking aspirin on a daily basis to prevent the sky from falling type correlations.

/tin foil hat

[TaxRelief]

Ribiviran side effects may not be worth what little the drug does to help. The most useful treatment info so far has come out of Germany (as usual).

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/928434/posts

[TaxRelief]

I am an NC freeper and I am getting local info. There are 12 workers from the physicians office and 3 hospital workers who are supposed to be released from quarantine today. There are several family members who can get out of quarantine at the beginning of the week.

We have a local freep going to get the building sterilized. Apparently Mr Engels didn't realize how long SARS lives on surfaces.

Local health officials, like Dr. Niman, are concerned that that the dead man will prove to be a super spreader. People at UNC CH are totally freaking out. The big concern is this: did the disease enter the campus before or after the school semester ended?

General question: Our kids have a swim meet in hickory, which includes the Raleigh area teams. Should they attend the meet or not?

[blam]

"Should they attend the meet or not?"

I wouldn't but that is a tough call with you kids especially if it's a big event for them.

[IYAAYAS]

What is known about the genetic profiles of those more likely to be infected vs. those least likely? (if that is known) SARS seems to me to be a disease that somehow works via the immune system. I keep running across this CCR5-D32 thing and immune system related diseases. SARS may cue on CCR5 cytokines for cell surface binding

[TaxRelief]

Rather than being a disease that works via the immune system, SARS seems to be causing an over reaction of the immune system, which is why people with aids, who have been exposed, have not apparently caught it (in Hong Kong and China).