Recall Sucking Oxygen From California Senate Race (Davis recall helps Boxer)

Roll Call ^ | 6/12/03 | Josh Kurtz

[Rensselaer]

A meeting this weekend of 400 California Republican moderates was supposed to be a showcase for the party’s potential 2004 Senate contenders, culminating in a straw poll to bless a favorite.

Instead, the confab in the hills above Santa Barbara is likely to be dominated by talk of the effort to recall California Gov. Gray Davis (D).

Three potential Senate candidates are still scheduled to address the Brooks Firestone Republican Weekend, an annual event organized by Firestone, a former state Assemblyman and wealthy GOP power broker. But the straw poll has been scotched.

And now, two conservative politicians closely associated with the recall drive — Rep. Darrell Issa (R) and businessman Bill Simon, the GOP’s gubernatorial nominee in 2002 — have been granted speaking slots. While hardly the favorites of party moderates, both are considered likely candidates for governor if a recall election winds up on the ballot.

“We don’t exclude anybody who wants to talk to our people,” said Brandon Gesicki, a California GOP consultant who works with Firestone.

But the urgency of the discussion about the recall highlights a dilemma for Golden State and national Republicans as they seek a strong challenger to two-term Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) next year: The recall could wind up drowning the Senate race out completely.

“The recall’s affecting everything in California politics,” said Dan Schnur, a Sacramento-based GOP strategist who is advising one potential Senate candidate, Rep. George Radanovich (R-Calif.). “There’s no reason the Senate race should be an exception.”

...

“The Senate candidate will not receive any attention while the recall is on — that much is a given,” said one Sacramento-based GOP operative. “It could also affect fundraising.”

That’s not insignificant for a race where the Republican nominee will probably need $20 million to be competitive.

...

[FairOpinion]

"The odds of the recall qualifying have increased to the point of near certainty," says Republican consultant Dan Schnur. And a Democrat strategist acknowledged: "Several people around [Davis] are of the assumption that they have to prepare as if it is going to qualify."

http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/06/09/timep.gray.davis.tm/

I also think that the recall will be successful, I really don't think Gray Davis will resign.

I think the big issue is that a large number of Republican candidates will fracture the Republican vote, and another Dem will waltz into the governor's mention, sending a Thank You note to the Republicans for putting him there, and sitting there for the next 8 years.

And while some say, that would still be a "success", I disagree. The only way the recall is worth it to the Republicans, if they can also get a Republican elected as governor. I think if we don't get a Republican in, this recall effort will have been worse than an exercise in futility, it will actually help the Democrats get a "clean start".

If a Republican would get elected, I do think he could do a lot to start pulling California out of the hole. (The only Republican who I don't think has a clue on how to do that is Schwartzeneggar, IMO. I am also choking at the idea of having a Kennedy as CA's First Lady).

The big question and issue is for Republicans to figure out which Republican has the best shot and unite behind that person, instead of having 12 factions pushing their 12 pet candidates, then having each get 5% of the vote, while a Democrat will get 50%, getting all the Democrats votes. Then the recall actually ends up leaving the Democrats stronger.

[Joe Hadenuf]

If Davis survives? Jezzz man, Davis is done. He murdered his own political career. What Davis ought to do is resign, and do it fast. Of course he wont do that, and I will enjoy this historic event, watching him go down in flames.

[Joe Hadenuf]

LOL....

[Hugin]

If Arnold puts his name on the recall ballot he will beat anybody, including DiFi. Bank on it.

[Rensselaer]

This article flies in the face of all conventional wisdom on campaigns. Usually, a dud at the top of the ticket is considered to be a bad thing for others of the same party. This article is suggesting that it is somehow good for Boxer if the most high profile person from her party on the ballot is a total loser that most of California dislikes.

Actually, that's part of my point. If Davis is recalled, he won't be weighing the Dems down in California - he'll be gone. The legislature will blame the GOP governor (the electorate tends to focus on the top guy much more than the legislature, even when it's the legislature's fault) and the state's natural Democratic leanings will have free reign in the next election.

[Maelstrom]

Nah

The moderates are stupid for ignoring the conservatives.

You will never make things better by electing a moderate, you only shove yourselves off the deepend a bit more slowly.

We'll watch you sink though.

[Maelstrom]

Once California becomes unliveable, Mexico will encourage it's secession from the US and repatriation to Mexico.

[Rodney King]

OK, I see your point.

[jammer]

Well put. You stated my opinion better than I could have. Maybe the RINOs are for Davis and a rat senator--anything to keep a conservative out.

[doc]

You are missing the point, message has to be sent by recalling Davis. All we hear is about the power of our vote, well here is our chance. This will be the first successful recall in America's history. The message is to stop wasting OUR money with high taxes and excessive government spending. Your right about leaving Davis in office he will be even more empowered just as Clinton was in his last year. So what if Feinstien is elected, we will have sent a message to her and also giving hope to the rest of the country that their is a chance for recall. How many politicians promise what you want to hear before their election and once they get elected they do what ever the hell they want?

[Rensselaer]

Maybe the RINOs are for Davis and a rat senator--anything to keep a conservative out.

And if I were a RINO, this might be a convincing argument.

[jammer]

Sorry if I inadvertently mischaracterized you. If so, then I disagree with your reasoning.

[ought-six]

"CA is too heavily liberal to elect a republican senator uless that individual is very noteworthy and charismatic."

I think Condi Rice would do just fine.

[NormsRevenge]

wooo hooo!!

The manure is rapidly fermenting. Soon, we will have an ample supply in the Capitol. When Gray goes, so follow the bulk of the rest of the demRats in 2004. It was not republican budget or signature that set California into a deep mora$$.

Sure hope I'm up upwind when she lewinskies. :-\

Oops! Almost forgot.

Draft Tom

[kellynla]

We need one strong conservative and only one. Chris Cox is the best qualified to run and most importantly win against Boxer. This state is on the brink of abyss.

[eureka!]

You may want to weigh in on this thread...

[absalom01]

Heh.

But, you know, that's already happening. Heard of MECHA? OK, so to the purist "Aztlan" isn't really "Mexico", but irredentism by any other name smells the same.

Some folks on this board rail about the danger of a future second civil war, and I always get a chuckle, 'cause it's already started, but they just havn't noticed yet.

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

This recall effort is stupid. We can't win this game.

Waaaa *sniff*

If Davis survives, he is stronger than ever.

No, if Davis survives he is limping, lame, and most of all humiliated. The 32 other recall efforts in state history never made it past 100,000.

If Davis loses and DiFi is elected

Feinstein again? Good lord I'm getting sick and tired of the cynical, defeatist idiocy of the California Republicans. I'm not originally from here, and the cowardice of you people is so glaring, so patently obvious that I'm surprised you have the guts to even be so publicly pessimistic, unless you are fishing for pats on the back and condolences. You'll get none from me.

Meanwhile, as this article notes, we're wasting time, attention, and money that could go to the Senate race next year, and various legislative and other races

Huh? Why bother. The GOP WILL lose those, remember? You are contradicting yourself here, remember the mantra; defeatist, defeatist, defeatist...

[Common Tator]

This will be the first successful recall in America's history.

People who think Davis is going down, thought that Clinton would be removed too. In the Davis case as well as the Clinton case it all depends on the Democrats staying with their man. If they do, he surivives. If they don't, he goes.

If the recall people get the 900,000 valid signatures Davis will be gone only if a Popular Democrat puts his name on the ballot. If only Republicans or weirdo Democrats are on the ballot, then Davis will spend millions scaring the voters into believing that throwing Davis out will put a whacko idiot, make things worse, Republican in office. The voters will keep Davis.

All Davis has to do is convince the voters that the alternative to Davis is worse than Davis. Davis did that against Simon. He can do it again.

But if the Democratic party turns on Davis, they will put a Popular Liberal Democrat on the ballot and win the race. Then the Democrats will blame every problem California has or will have on the "evil DAVIS". You will all cheer. If Davis takes the blame then the Democrats will hold California for the next 20 years. The best policy for Democrats in this scenerio is to paint the situation not as a Democrat problem... but as a Gray Davis problem.

What Democrats fear most is California in terrible shape and the Democrats in total control. Then there is no one for the liberal left of center voters to blame but the Democrats. That could cause a re-alignment. But by fixing it so that Davis takes all the blame, Democrats could use the liberal bias of the state to stay in control of the state for the next 20 years.

If I were advising Davis I would try to hold the Democrat party so no popular Democrat goes on the ballot. I would have the ballot filled with idiots. I would flood the paid media with spots showing how much worse all of the noname candidates are than Davis.

If I were advising the Democratic party in California, I would tell them to put a popular Democrat on the ballot and let Davis take all the blame for what is happening to the state government.

For Democrats to surivive this mess in California someone other than the Democratic party must take the blame. If Democrats with your help can shift the blame from Democrats to Davis, they will stay in power.

I think the worst thing for the Democrats is for Davis to not be recalled. That insures that Davis and the Democrats take all the blame.

The worst case for Republicans is to win the recall and put a Republican in as governor. The state legislature would block all attempts to fix the problems and do all they could to make them even worse. In a couple of years the media would have convinced the public that all the states problems were the creation of Republicans. By 2006 the Democrats would be free of blame and in total control of the state for the next 20 years.

[dalereed]

You sound like your face is attracted to Firestones backside.