People who think Davis is going down, thought that Clinton would be removed too. In the Davis case as well as the Clinton case it all depends on the Democrats staying with their man. If they do, he surivives. If they don't, he goes.
If the recall people get the 900,000 valid signatures Davis will be gone only if a Popular Democrat puts his name on the ballot. If only Republicans or weirdo Democrats are on the ballot, then Davis will spend millions scaring the voters into believing that throwing Davis out will put a whacko idiot, make things worse, Republican in office. The voters will keep Davis.
All Davis has to do is convince the voters that the alternative to Davis is worse than Davis. Davis did that against Simon. He can do it again.
But if the Democratic party turns on Davis, they will put a Popular Liberal Democrat on the ballot and win the race. Then the Democrats will blame every problem California has or will have on the "evil DAVIS". You will all cheer. If Davis takes the blame then the Democrats will hold California for the next 20 years. The best policy for Democrats in this scenerio is to paint the situation not as a Democrat problem... but as a Gray Davis problem.
What Democrats fear most is California in terrible shape and the Democrats in total control. Then there is no one for the liberal left of center voters to blame but the Democrats. That could cause a re-alignment. But by fixing it so that Davis takes all the blame, Democrats could use the liberal bias of the state to stay in control of the state for the next 20 years.
If I were advising Davis I would try to hold the Democrat party so no popular Democrat goes on the ballot. I would have the ballot filled with idiots. I would flood the paid media with spots showing how much worse all of the noname candidates are than Davis.
If I were advising the Democratic party in California, I would tell them to put a popular Democrat on the ballot and let Davis take all the blame for what is happening to the state government.
For Democrats to surivive this mess in California someone other than the Democratic party must take the blame. If Democrats with your help can shift the blame from Democrats to Davis, they will stay in power.
I think the worst thing for the Democrats is for Davis to not be recalled. That insures that Davis and the Democrats take all the blame.
The worst case for Republicans is to win the recall and put a Republican in as governor. The state legislature would block all attempts to fix the problems and do all they could to make them even worse. In a couple of years the media would have convinced the public that all the states problems were the creation of Republicans. By 2006 the Democrats would be free of blame and in total control of the state for the next 20 years.
LOL..
Humpty DUMPty Davis will take this fall, and all the media king's horses and talking heads will not be able to put him over the top again.
The tax payers and not the benefit claimers will show up in numbers that will surprise.
Leaving Davi$ in place would be like putting Chamberlain back in power in England after WW2, imo. Why reward incompetence and bungling. The polls say a lot,, repear a lot of folks are pissed off, not just republicans or conservatives.
He is toast politically, a whipping boy for all and a national laughing stock, like eGore.
Californians who care have more pride then to let this drama'tragedy continue. GrayOut this November, The demRats in 2004.
That's it in a nutshell. And the critical factor, as always is the media. As long as they can spin for Democrats they'll do it. The situation you describe would give them no place to go. They'd have to pin the tail on the Donkey. If a Republican is elected as a result of the recall and cuts spending he'll get all the media blame for starving the homeless, putting cops and firemen on the street, the entire litany of liberal whining.
When your enemy is digging himself into a hole, by all means let him keep digging.
Meanwhile, can you believe all the media furor over the Chocolate Mountains gold scam? I read all about it daily in my local paper...NOT!! All I see published or broadcast is what a great idea locking all that desert up for the "endangered" tortoises is. The fact their eggs are being eaten by a flock of non-native crows who vary their diets with scraps from nearby fast food restaurants (which attracted them in the first place) never seems to make the local media either. Between the tortoises and suicidal California condors (who are kept from extinction by vast amounts of our tax money), most of southern CA will be off limits for humans soon.