Posted on 05/31/2003 5:34:02 PM PDT by D. Brian Carter
MIAMI - The dissipation of the El Nino warm water phenomenon in the Pacific will contribute to an above-average Atlantic hurricane season with eight hurricanes, a noted storm forecaster said Friday.
Colorado State University expert William Gray said the season, which begins officially on Sunday, will produce a total of 14 tropical storms, of which three will be major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or more.
The prediction would double the number of hurricanes compared with last year, a season that produced 12 ``named'' storms but just four hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
Gray's forecast paralleled that of the National Hurricane Center, which on May 19 projected 11 to 15 tropical storms, six to nine hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes this year.
Hurricane forecasting is tricky. Last September, Gray issued a mid-season forecast in which he lowered his forecast to eight storms for the entire season -- right before a dramatic rise in storm formation that took the season total to 12.
``The dissipation of El Nino and the anticipated formation of a La Nina in the Pacific are factors leading to the increase in our May update,'' Gray said in a written statement.
El Nino is the periodic warming of Pacific water around the equator. It brings strong winds in the upper atmosphere that shear off the tops of nascent cyclones in the Atlantic, dampening development.
El Nino played a role in suppressing hurricane activity in the Atlantic last year. Gray's forecasting team said it expects La Nina cold-water conditions to occur in the Pacific by mid-August, the beginning of the most active part of the hurricane season.
The circular tropical weather systems that develop into hurricanes become ``tropical storms'' and are given names when maximum sustained winds reach 39 mph. When top winds hit 74 mph, the storms become hurricanes.
The season officially runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. But this year it got off to an early start with the April formation of Ana, which disappeared harmlessly in the north Atlantic.
On average, the Atlantic season sees 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major hurricanes.
The United States has a higher-than-average probability -- 69 percent -- of being hit by a major hurricane this year, Gray said.
(Excerpt) Read more at sun-sentinel.com ...
No, that was an entirely different forecast...from NOAA. This is Dr. William Gray at CSU. He's the one who started seasonal forecasting and DISCOVERED the ENSO-Atlantic hurricane link.
Gray has never been discredited by anybody; he's shown skill above chance in his seasonal forecasts and is widely respected in the meteorological community.
He hasn't had Federal funding for 3 years; NOAA decided to do their own forecasts using his reasearch as a basis. He's been funded by Insurance companies since then but that is about to be cut off.
I follow this guy every year, from the spring through the fall. The reason he's so "accurate" is these almost weekly "updates"... geez, I could pick the winner of the NL East if you let me update my guesses every week until October.
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