Regards, Ivan
Posted on 05/01/2003 12:15:08 AM PDT by MadIvan
BEFORE the start of the campaign to liberate Iraq, pundits and exiles had cast the Shiite community as an almost unconditional ally of the United States.
Iraqi Shiites were supposed to be as keen to rise against Saddam Hussein as the so-called "Arab street" was sizzling to explode in his support.
In the event, however, there was little or no uprising of the Shiites. Terrorised by Saddam’s machinery of fear, the community did not wish to repeat its tragic experience of 1991 when it rose and, abandoned by the US, was crushed by the regime.
Less than two weeks after the liberation, the tune has changed.
The same pundits and exiles now claim that Shiites represent the biggest threat to US plans in Iraq.
That claim is supported by television footage of a pilgrimage held last week by hundreds of thousands of Shiites to the shrine of Imam Hussein at Karbala, which lies 80 miles south of Baghdad.
The gathering was impressive by any standards, as was the fervour of the pilgrims. Coming on the occasion of Arba’in, the 40th day of the martyrdom of Imam Hussein more than 1,300 years ago, the pilgrimage attracted the faithful from all over Iraq.
For the first time in 32 years Shiites were able to perform a pilgrimage that had been banned by the Baathist regime. It was also the first free mass gathering in Iraq in almost half a century not to be crushed by the regime’s tanks and helicopters.
Was all that a show of anti-Americanism or, at least, a "warning" to Washington as some pundits claim? On the contrary: The gathering showed how isolated anti-American groups are among Iraqi Shiites.
Throughout Arba’in, small bands of militants, some freshly arrived from Iran, were posted at the entrance of streets leading to the two main shrines. They carried placards and posters calling for an Islamic republic and shouted anti-American slogans. But it soon became clear that few pilgrims were prepared to join them.
All the pilgrims that this reporter could talk to expressed their "gratitude and appreciation" to the US and its British allies for having freed them from the most brutal regime Iraq had seen since its creation in 1921.
Needless to say, however, most television cameras were focused on the small number of militants who had something "hot" - that is to say, anti-American - to say.
After days of talking to Shiites in Karbala and Najaf, it is clear that there is virtually no undercurrent of anti-Americanism in the heartland of Iraqi Shiaism. Even some clerics who have just returned from exile in Iran were keen to advertise their goodwill towards the US. All that, however, could quickly change.
The advent of liberty has unleashed energies that could both create and destroy. Here you have millions of people, mostly aged below 25 and never allowed to take the smallest decision without the fear of political authority, who suddenly feel no-one is in charge.
"We have been freed from a despotic father and feel like orphans: both happy and terrified," says Mahdi Khadhim, a Karbala schoolteacher, expressing a widely held sentiment.
Many Iraqis find it puzzling that the US is not telling them what to do or not to do. One question a reporter is persistently asked is whether the Americans or "at least the British" have a plan for Iraq?
"Where do we go from here?" asks Hassan Naqib, a theology student . "Are we supposed to sort things out as we like?"
The US and its allies impressed the Iraqis by the efficiency of their military machine. Although little noticed by the media, few Iraqis outside Baghdad, and, to a lesser extent, Basra, directly experienced the war.
Some Iraqis wonder whether that efficient military machine might lack a political brain. The political vacuum created by the collapse of the Baathist regime widens by the day, and there are no signs that the US or anybody else for that matter might have a clue as to how to fill it.
Having no jobs or schools to go to, millions of young men gather at teahouses or at private homes to discuss politics, something they had never dared indulge in. The atmosphere is charged with expectation and uncertainty. These young men want to be heroic and revolutionary, the makers of a history of which they had always been objects. Few are looking towards Iran either as model or as a source of inspiration. But that, too, could change.
George Bush, the US president, needs to get a grip on situation that could run out of control. He must decide who is in charge of the political aspect of the Iraqi project. And, indeed, what that project consists of.
Amir Taheri is the Iranian author of ten books on the Middle East and Islam.
Regards, Ivan
When I noticed we kept seeing the same couple dozen guys flagelating themselves and the same handful of anti-American signs over and over again I figured that was probably what was going on. Good to hear I was right.
Naturally we can expect the same media editors to do the same thing to coverage of Iraq.
There will be work, plenty of work. But first things first. We have to get basic services going, then put the Iraqis back to work.
The Coalition can organize nationwide non-stop soccer tournaments in Iraq while they prepare for the governing bodies.:) That will take anxiety off these people. Play soccer all day and go home for sound sleep.
It appears that my concern about militant Shi'ites hijacking this pilgrimage did not materialize. They do not look hostile. This is a great relief. I am glad that I prove to be wrong.
Yes, and you may want to do some homework first.
And of course, those who want power are those who can least be trusted with it.
George Bush, the US president, needs to get a grip on situation that could run out of control. He must decide who is in charge of the political aspect of the Iraqi project.
He has. It's the Iraqi people. And that's blowing some minds:
"Where do we go from here?" asks Hassan Naqib, a theology student . "Are we supposed to sort things out as we like?"
Yup. Kind of a weird feeling, ain't it? Try it...you'll like it...
I'm a big fan of President Bush, but I think the US has been very slow to fill the power vacuum in Iraq, and that is dangerous. Extremists move in when there is a power vacuum.
It's time to take a deep breath. There is NO way for all of this to sort itself out overnight. I see the glass much more than half full, it just seems that many want to BLAME every problem on us. How would YOU fill a power vacuum in a country of 25 million or so with a few troops. Think back to 91. I wonder how long it took them to get the power back on that time. I'm going to try to focus on the big picture and wait at least a year before trying to JUDGE our efforts.
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