Posted on 04/30/2003 10:13:20 PM PDT by Sweet_Sunflower29
The mounting death toll exacted by SARS in China has triggered speculation that the virus could ultimately be traced back to a leak from military bio-weapon programs. Although most reporting favors a natural origin for SARS, a bio-weapon link should at least not be ruled out, according to Richard Fisher, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, a Washington-based think tank.
"While there is no reported evidence that SARS is indeed a weapon, there are plenty of ways that a real weapon with the properties of SARS could prove decisive in a military conflict," he said.
China's most famous dissident, the exiled Wei Jingsheng, in an opinion piece this week cited rumors circulating in China, such as the idea "that SARS emanated from China's biological weapons research facilities."
Without explicitly dismissing the possibility, Wei noted in the piece, published in the International Herald Tribune, that Chinese President Hu Jintao had visited a bio-military research facility to dampen the rumors.
Many analysts consider a link between Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and bio-weapons far-fetched, citing the lack of any evidence to support it.
"This speculation is pretty baseless," said Stephanie Lieggi, an East Asia expert at the California-based Center for Nonproliferation Studies.
"I have seen nothing in recent reports that would support any connection between SARS and biological weapons," she said.
No known biological weapon has all the properties so far associated with
But rough parallels -- deadly viruses that reproduce and spread through a human population by multiple means -- do exist, according to analysts.
The main argument against the theory is the low kill ratio associated with SARS, as more than 90 percent of those struck by the virus seem to recover.
And although it is transmitted relatively easily, it seems to be less contagious than most known viral bio-weapons, according to experts.
But it is exactly the innocuous nature of SARS that could make it militarily useful for someone wanting to sow panic and prompt political instability, Fisher argued.
"A seemingly 'natural' epidemic would lessen suspicion of the main 'enemy state' by the target country and its main allies," he said.
"With that target government increasingly preoccupied by a major health crisis, it would then be distracted from other possible threats, thus increasing the chances an outside attack could succeed," he said.
The theory that SARS was a leaked weapon would depend on the existence of an offensive biological weapon program in China, and not just a defensive effort aimed at protection from foreign attack.
According to US intelligence sources, the People's Liberation Armydoes have an offensive program, although it appears to have been scaled down over the past two decades.
The Institute of Military Medicine near Beijing has been engaged at least in defensive research, while some other biotechnology facilities could have both civilian and military uses.
One crucial but unknown factor is the role played by biological weapons in China's military doctrine.
Overseas analysts simply do not know for sure whether China envisages the use of biological weapons in future wars.
Strategic planners in China are fascinated by the concept of "asymmetrical warfare", which facilitates victory over a stronger enemy, such as the United States, by hitting it where it is relatively weak.
Much of this research is believed to focus on high-technology capabilities such as satellite jamming, rather than biological weapons.
However, the exact thinking of the higher rungs inside the PLA remains obscure to the outside world, leaving several possibilities open.
"In the absence of clear knowledge of PLA doctrine in this area, one can presume that the PLA at a minimum maintains a stock of bioweapons for retaliation purposes," said Fisher.
But it was not natural and people began to suspect as much. No doubt some folks would have claimed "we" did it, but it was their own goof. And they later admitted this.
If anything, the case would be more compelling in the anthrax case since there was little chance of it spreading to the US from the USSR with everything closed off in that society. In the case of China, attacking it would only end up introducing the stuff into the US in short order owing to the relatively free travel. It would be stupid for the US to do that sort of thing.
Were this some sort of engineered bug, my gut instinct would be to look at history; from that my guess would be that if it isn't a natural mutation, it's like the old Russian anthrax case and Chinese goofed up with sloppy containment procedure in their own lab, or they have a mad scientist.
WE ? Please adjust your over abundance of tinfoil; it's closed down your brain.
ROFLMBO!!!!!!!!!!!!!
My dog is emitting noxious fumes from the vicinity of its hind quarters. Could this be a WMD attack?
I don't think it is bio-warfare virus, but it is not inconceivable.
Concerning your knee-jerk communist defense, and your comment:
If China had invented the virus, they would also have the anti-dote for it, right?
Read the #6 article at here from an April 24 report and then translate the key part that addresses your comment for piasa and the rest of the folks here at FR.
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