Graham frustrates would-be successors

As newly minted presidential candidate Bob Graham heads to the cornfields of Iowa this week, he leaves behind a bewildered field of candidates for his U.S. Senate seat longing to hear him speak these words: "I will not run for the Senate."

Graham is determined to become the nation's 44th president. He acknowledges that getting there will not be easy. He speaks candidly about the difficulty of the campaign ahead, the crowded field, his rusty campaign style and the need to raise $20 million.

But Graham refuses to give a clear answer to one simple question: "If your campaign for president falters, will you run for a fourth term in the Senate?"

His answers range from "I will be the next president" to saying Democratic candidates should "get organized, start forming a campaign and be ready to go."

"It's a handicap for them," Charles Whitehead, a former state party chairman, says of the Democrats who would love to succeed Graham as senator.

"Graham has the money on hold until he makes the decision publicly," says Whitehead, who had a fund-raiser for Graham in Panama City last week. "People are just not going to go out and commit to a Senate candidate until they know what Graham is going to do."

Meanwhile, two Republicans, U.S. Rep. Mark Foley of West Palm Beach and Bill McCollum, a former Orlando-area congressman, are campaigning for the GOP Senate nomination, both saying they will run even if Graham is in the Senate race. Although McCollum showed only about $300,000 in his campaign coffers at this year's first-quarter filing deadline, Foley has raised $2.3 million.

His finger in the dike of Democratic political ambition, Graham is holding back not only Senate candidates but also scores of potential candidates down the political scale. For every congressman who wants to be a senator, there are county commissioners who long to go to Congress, and so on.

Mitch Ceasar, chairman of the Broward County Democratic Party, says as many as 20 incumbents in his county will be leaving office in the hope of winning election to a higher job, starting with U.S. Rep. Peter Deutsch, D-Fort Lauderdale, who has long wanted to be Graham's successor.

Deutsch has long been raising money for when the opportunity comes. With more than $2 million in the bank, he's the only Democrat in Foley's fund-raising league, but at least publicly he's being patient. He says Graham "deserves the respect" of being allowed to decide what's best without pressure from those who want to succeed him.

Ambition to move up, of course, is not limited to Broward. In North Florida, U.S. Rep. Alan Boyd, D-Monticello, may enter the race, spawning a slew of candidates there. If U.S. Rep. Alcee Hastings, D-Miramar, gets in the race, dozens of contests could be affected, from Miami-Dade to Palm Beach County.

Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas, who is term-limited, is running, and former banker Alex Sink of Tampa, whose husband, Bill McBride, was the party's gubernatorial nominee last year, also has said she's thinking about entering the Democratic primary.

"I think there is no question that there are a lot of people out there excited by the possibilities," Ceasar says. "This is a chance of a lifetime."

But even he, when asked what he would do if he were a Democratic contributor, says, "I don't know. I would probably sit on the sidelines."

One thing all five of the potential Democratic candidates have in common is that they emphatically say they will bow out if Graham decides to run for a fourth term.

Meanwhile, the Democratic candidates must work hard to convince contributors to write checks for a campaign that might not happen.

"I won't say it's not affecting us, but I think everybody in the political world understands the circumstances that Bob Graham could come back," says Ric Katz, a spokesman for Penelas.

But Katz also believes raising a lot of money now will prove that a candidate is strong.

"We expect to have a very strong quarter, and everyone will know that the money was raised despite the possibility that Graham could come back," Katz says.

Graham's campaign for the presidency has just gotten under way. He traveled to California and New Hampshire this month and will campaign in Iowa today and Tuesday. On May 6, Graham will formally announce his candidacy in Miami Lakes, the community his family built.

So far, there is no indication Graham will say anything clearer about the Senate on May 6, and one reason may be that the uncertainty is helping him raise the estimated $20 million it will take to win the Democratic nomination.

"That's a big stick," Whitehead says. "People know that, if they contribute to Graham now, even if he doesn't end up in the White House, he'll still be in the Senate."

Under state election law, Graham does not have to become an official candidate for the Senate until May 2004. Many believe that next year's early presidential primary season will make the Democratic nominee for president known by March, giving Graham plenty of time to file for the Senate race.

But there is a move in the Republican-controlled Florida Legislature to make the primaries for state offices earlier than their September date, which would require the filing date for Senate and Congress to be moved up to March. That would increase the pressure on Graham to make a decision earlier.

And Graham will get some national pressure to run for a fourth term. The Democrats can't afford to lose his seat. They hold 48 seats in the Senate to the Republicans' 51, although there is one independent who usually votes with the Democrats.

"As long as Bob Graham wants to stay in the Senate, he can," says Bob Poe, former chairman of the Florida Democratic Party. "If he decides not to run, it becomes a very competitive seat."

"The good news is that the election is still 18 months away," Deutsch says. "Voters are not even paying attention yet. Even if Senator Graham waits until next year, we'll still have plenty of time to campaign."

His finger in the dike of Democratic political ambition

Is that a Janet Reno reference? Or a Hillary reference?

"But Katherine Harris pretty much has it sewn up"

I disagree. As a Florida resident I think the state GOP will hesitate about putting up such a divisive candidate. The nomination belongs to Mel Martinez, if he wants it. I'm not saying I don't want Harris in the senate (she would be far better than either Foley or McCollum, our two current choices) but she is simply to polarizing and would motivate a HUGE black turnout, like that disgusting NAACP ad did. The democrats will accuse her of being the biggest racist in Florida since Spessard Holland, a conservative democrat who served as governor and later senator.

It would be great if deutsch ran. That way we get rid of cracker and lil' petey at the same time. cracker is running for president because he knows he can't win reelection. He must figure, "Hey, you never know!" clinocchio won the 92 lottery, why not me?"

"cracker is running for president because he knows he can't win reelection"

I completely disagree. Graham is the most popular (other than Jeb) politician in Florida. He's fooled everyone into beleiving he's a moderate, reasonable person but in reality he's a big government loving liberal. Graham always wins easily and 2004 would not have been any different. He's probably running because he's thinking "Hey, if that fruitcake Kucininch is running, then why can't I run for President?"

"But Katherine Harris pretty much has it sewn up."

I hope not. She needed last minute help to win her Safe R Congressional District. Her candidacy would be a disaster, and we'd lose the race to anyone but Alcee Hastings (a black liberal impeached former Judge) or Janet Reno.

couric this morning asked him about the journals, and read some stuff that was ridiculous/hilarious. Graham spun his way out, saying his dad journaled fence posts and that really, more people should journal. Finally, Katie just smiled and said it was charming!

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