Shirley Franklin may be a top-notch mayor, but she can't be a senator

Athens Banner-Herald ^ | 4/16/03 | Bill Shipp

[LdSentinal]

Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin says she is entertaining a possible bid for the U.S. Senate based on a poll showing her defeating two powerful Republican congressmen, Johnny Isakson and Mac Collins.

The poll is not to be taken lightly. It was conducted for EMILY's List, a liberal women's fund-raising network whose poster woman is Sen. Hillary Clinton. (EMILY, by the way, is not a woman but an acronym: ''Early Money Is Like Yeast,'' meaning that it helps raise dough.)

The highly publicized survey is a signal that national Democrats are seriously searching for a candidate to run in the 2004 election to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Zell Miller.

At the moment, Republican 6th District Rep. Johnny Isakson appears to be way out front in the early running for the Senate. He is the only major announced candidate. He has already raised a pot full of money and pre-empted much of the business community's support. Congressman Collins has not yet said whether he will run.

Back to Mayor Franklin and her Democratic suitors. The Feldman Group, a well-known polling organization working for EMILY's List, says: ''Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin can win a United States Senate race in Georgia. Franklin begins with a lead over Republican Congressman Johnny Isakson and a stronger lead against Republican Congressman Mac Collins. After positive biographical information about each candidate, Franklin wins a 50 percent majority of voters.''

A couple of things are wrong with this poll, the first being that it's pure malarkey.

The people who designed this survey must have just dropped in from Mars. Otherwise, they would know the following almost by instinct:

A mayor of Atlanta - any Atlanta mayor, black or white, male or female - can not be elected to major statewide office in Georgia. Non-Atlanta Georgia generally detests the state's principal city and regards Atlanta-based politicians with great suspicion. (The exceptions: Congressman Wyche Fowler of Atlanta was elected to the Senate against a weak Republican incumbent, Mack Mattingly, in 1986. Fowler lost six years later to Republican Paul Coverdell who also was from Atlanta. The Fowler-Coverdell phenomenon occurred only a few years ago, but it is light years away from the present reality of Georgia politics.)

What respondents may tell pollsters on the phone is irrelevant. Respondents lie, and valid samples are almost impossible to construct. As a result, current polling is unreliable. (If you don't believe it, ask Roy Barnes, Democratic incumbent governor who had $22 million in campaign funds at his disposal and the best pollsters on his payroll. The pollsters told him he would win in 2002 in almost a walk. He lost in a near landslide.)

The Shirley Franklin senatorial poll of 400 respondents included 27 percent African-Americans. Democrats, in their best year ever, didn't even come close to getting that many black citizens to vote. In non-presidential election years, blacks traditionally compose about 22 percent of the total vote. In a presidential election, that number rises to 24 percent. That means Mayor Franklin would have to inspire black citizens to go the polls as no other candidate ever has. Perhaps she could. But such a feat would border on miraculous.

Of course, Franklin has been an exemplary mayor, tackling problems none of her recent predecessors dared touch. She also has started to reverse the general decline of the city. Leaving her present duties for a very long-shot bid for the Senate would be a disservice to the state's capital.

Sadly, Georgia is not ready to elect a woman or an African-American to the Senate. The poll numbers may not reflect that fact. But recent racially divisive debates in the legislature are clear indicators that black Democrats are replacing Republicans as the state's political outsiders. Not only did blacks lose the flag battle, they were handed a major defeat when Republicans and white Democrats voted to strip consumer-protection clauses from the state's predatory lending laws. It was a signal victory for banking lobbyists and a major setback for blacks and many moderate whites.

Black political influence was ignored again when the Republican governor, Sonny Perdue, boldly hired a private lawyer to challenge African-American Attorney General Thurbert Baker's authority as the state's No. 1 legal officer. In another time, such a move would have provoked a public outcry of ''racist!'' Not this time.

For those who like to believe competent public service ought to be rewarded with public support and higher office, Shirley Franklin as a U.S. Senator may be a nice thought. But it is a far-fetched dream at best.

In truth, Zell Miller may be the last Democrat for a long, long time to serve as a U.S. Senator from Georgia. The polls don't show it, but our state is on its way to becoming finally a part of the ''Solid South'' - solid Republican, that is.

[LdSentinal]

Ping

[T Lady]

I still can't understand why Miller never made the party switch; he voted with Bush's policies most of time he's been in the Senate; the last of the 'Blue Dog' Democrats.

-Regards, T.

[Kuksool]

The article just had to use the word racist when describing the Pubbies. It has become a religious ritual for the liberal media to use Republican and racist in the same sentence.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Well, at least they debunked that silly "EMILY's List" poll...

[fieldmarshaldj]

Miller was never going to switch, he made that quite clear. I had, however, hoped he could've at least switched to Independent and then voted to organize with the GOP.

[T Lady]

That would have been cool; but at least it looks like we may pick up another seat in the Senate-at least from Georgia anyway. I'm not holding my breath anytime soon for California.

-Regards, T.

[jra]

EMILY. Early money is like yeast. Hmmm.

Love the sweet name given to a group that is no doubt not as sweet. Emily. It sure does sound sweet, doesn't it?

I think I'll start an opposition group with an acronym for its name. Gotta use a guy's name, since they used a girl's name.

I've got it! Please espouse the extreme right. P.E.T.E.R.. Good. Got a nice double-entendre thing going for me, too.

[Kuksool]

EMILY's List is a joke. This special interest group was a big loser last year. EMILY's List wanted to make the Senate races in NH, GA, MO, CO, and MN a referendum on abortion rights. However, the pro-life candidates won those races! So much for feminazi power.

[Coop]

While I don't argue the main premise of this article, I do have a problem with an author who tells us that phone polls are notoriously invalid... and then proceeds to analyze the results anyways. :-)

[Norman Conquest]

EMILY's List is a yeast infection to the Democrat party. It crowds out moderates and ensures that far-left women win Dem primaries, leaving them no chance of beating the GOP in November.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"EMILY's List is a joke."

---

You don't know the half of it. EMILY's List published a poll about a week before the redistricting-instigated 2002 primary between incumbent Democrats John Dingell (who's been in the House since he inherited his father's seat in the mid 1950s) and Lynn Rivers (a feminist first elected in 1994) that showed Rivers up by 1%. Most political analysts spent most of the final week writing Dingell's political obituary. Not only did Dingell end up winning, he won by 17% of the vote! The EMILY's List poll must have been doctored (or completely fake) in an attempt to make Dingell look vulnerable and thus help Rivers's candidacy. The liberal media, happy to try to defeat Dingell because of his support for the Second Amendment, never questioned the poll, even after the primary proved it was a sham. Nor did they question the gun-control freaks who suffered their worst defeat ever. This is what the Detroit Free Press (who call themselves "the Freep" but should be called the "DUH") reported on August 7, 2002 (the day after the primary):

"Michael D. Barnes, Brady Campaign president, said in a statement: "Although Dingell squeaked by, this race is a warning to all of the gun lobby's congressional cronies -- standing with the gun lobby jeopardizes your congressional seat. Americans want sensible gun laws.""

The author of the story did not clarify that winning by 17% does not constitute "squeak[ing] by," nor did he seek a quote from the NRA, who would probably say that Dingell proves that the 2nd Amendment is still treasured by working Americans, and that opposing gun rights jeopardizes your congressional seat. I'm sure we can expect this same kind of biased reporting if Ms. Mayor does indeed run for the Senate.

I also take the opportunity to reiterate that Johnny Isakson would be vulnerable against a moderate Democrat and we need to convince Congressman Jack Kingston to run.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"EMILY's List is a yeast infection to the Democrat party."

---

ROTFL!

[JohnnyZ]

I've already emailed brother Kingston and told him "I and my sisters who live in Georgia want a pro-life conservative Republican in that seat, and just to clarify Johnny Isakson is NOT my idea of same" and that Jack should run.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I warned an acquaintance of mine, who owns the online "The Political Graveyard" that I contribute to, that those polls showing a narrow win for Lynn Rivers were highly dubious (he is good friends with Ms. Rivers as an Ann Arbor resident), and that Dingell would prevail, but he felt confident that his defeat would still happen. I think, too, that the polls also failed to take into account a number of Republicans who crossed over to vote in the MI 'Rat primary (in that district specifically) to keep Dingell, who although quite liberal, was far more moderate than Rivers. All of this is the reason why I put absolutely no stock in any EMILY's List poll, there didn't appear to be one race they were involved in that reflected the true dynamics of a given contest. Personally I hope they continue to stick their noses in, as they are more a menace to the 'Rats. It'll be fun to watch the 'Rats tell them to stay the hell out (inflicting yet even more damage). That's the problem you face when you have a plethora of extremist groups that comprise the very bedrock of your party.

[AlGone2001]

The author, Bill Ship, also is published in the Atlanta Journal on the political editorial section. He represents the view of the left in the AJC. He's an older white guy. Just one more race baitin' poverty pimp.

[AlGone2001]

I do not want to see Issakson in the seat. It will tick me off if he wins the primary.