Ah, nothing quite like Stratfor claiming that the battle for Baghdad would be bloody beyond belief, street to street, house to house fighting to the death...
Posted on 04/21/2003 6:40:19 PM PDT by Mister Magoo
Spooky
By MATT BAI
'The war is going to start at 8 tonight,'' George Friedman told me on the phone. His voice, over the hum of his rental car, was hushed and urgent; I thought maybe he was being tailed. B-52's from Britain were already in the air and would be ''in country'' soon, he told me. President Bush had already decided to address the nation at 9.
On the eve of war, I had arranged to meet Friedman in Melbourne, Fla., where he was headed for a family bar mitzvah. Friedman is the founder, chairman and ''chief intelligence officer'' of Stratfor (short for ''Strategic Forecasting''), a private intelligence company based in Austin, Tex. Stratfor is an upstart in this little-known industry. While more established firms discreetly sell their expertise on world events to large corporations, Stratfor operates a more populist service, a Web site for subscribers, for whom it claims to do ''predictive, insightful global intelligence.'' In other words, for a fee, George Friedman will tell you what happens next.
Since I arrived at my hotel before Friedman, I turned on the TV in my room and flipped the channels. No one was expecting the war to begin immediately. The White House hadn't asked the networks for TV time. Some correspondents, not to mention Peter Jennings, were heading home. Friedman, ensconced in his climate-controlled sedan on I-95, was claiming to know something the best reporters in Washington didn't.
When 9 p.m. came and went without any new developments, Friedman was troubled. I found him in his new command post at the Hilton, a mauve-and-green room overlooking the ocean with a bedside desk and a high-speed modem. He was pacing, in a T-shirt and shorts, studying maps of U.S. troop deployments and ordering up situation reports from his analysts in Austin. At 54, Friedman is a bearded, owlish figure, with small, alert eyes and a slightly hunched gait. ''I need caffeine,'' he told his wife, Meredith, who is also his public relations director. ''I need sugar. I need beef.''
He turned to me. ''Understand that you're now in a superheated atmosphere,'' he said. ''There are all kinds of rumors floating around. And one of the players is deliberately feeding us lies.'' I nodded. I wondered whether I was safe.
Then, suddenly, Meredith's cellphone rang. ''Triple A going crazy over Baghdad!'' she called out. (''Triple A,'' or AAA, I learned, is what the pros call anti-aircraft artillery.) Friedman grabbed the phone. ''Repeat,'' he commanded. He listened, then informed me that the war had begun.
I asked how he knew that, since it still wasn't on TV. ''I can't tell you where that came from,'' he replied.
Within minutes, the White House announced that U.S. forces had indeed launched cruise missiles into Baghdad, and by 10:15, Bush himself was speaking from the Oval Office. It was an impressive moment for Friedman, and I told him so. But his relief at being proved right was already starting to fade as he plunged back into his maps and fired off a new round of e-mail.
''We were told he would speak at 9, and for some reason it was delayed an hour,'' he said. ''The question is: why?''
His clients would want to know the answer; indeed, their lives might depend on it. And yet Friedman's clients weren't on the battlefield. They are the financial traders and investors who get advice from Stratfor's Web site or from Friedman himself. In the global economy, unrest and uncertainty cloud the market like an Arabian sandstorm, and the Wall Street guys desperately want to know: Will oil be up or down? Is the E.U. a friend or an enemy?
''We're a place you can go,'' Friedman told me, ''to get the mysteries answered.''
The strangest thing about George Friedman -- and this is by no means an easy call to make -- is that he wouldn't know Wall Street from Little Italy. He doesn't even own stock, and he never had any aspiration to make money off the financial world. For Friedman, it's always been about war and spooks. Growing up in the Bronx, he watched his father, who served with his fellow Hungarians on the Russian front, follow the progress of Soviet troops into Hungary. Later, after earning a doctorate from Cornell in political theory, Friedman worked on some of the earliest computer war games for the Pentagon. His ambition was to create his very own military-intelligence service -- a kind of C.I.A. for the masses.
During his 20 years as a college professor, Friedman lectured at military policy centers and wrote impossibly dry books with titles like ''The Future of War.'' He was running a center on geopolitical studies at Louisiana State University in the mid-1990's when his research on ethnic enclaves took him to Eastern Europe.
''We went to Slovakia, and we were meeting with Hungarian dissidents,'' he recalled. ''One of them slides into a booth across from me and says, 'I think I'm being followed.' This is wonderful! It's like a 1930's movie.''
Friedman had a revelation: like so much else in the Internet age, intelligence was about to undergo a revolution. Foreign newspapers, once available only to the C.I.A. at great expense, were now online for free. The business of recruiting informants, once the exclusive purview of governments, could now be reinvented by a professor and a bunch of students eating pizza in a computer lab.
He set up Stratfor in 1996 and began sending out his free daily briefing on world events to contacts in national defense and business, who then sent it on to others. He predicted that the surging Asian economy would collapse by the end of 1997, while the American economy would reach unprecedented heights. These weren't exactly Nostradamus-type predictions, but Friedman found a modest following nonetheless.
Eventually, Friedman hired a former Russian colonel, who goes only by the name Victor, as his director of intelligence. Victor won't say exactly what he did in the old days, but let's put it this way: he knows 10 languages and spent a fair amount of time operating in countries like Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan. You figure it out.
Between them, Friedman and Victor say they've amassed hundreds of contacts around the world who now feed them tips or, in some cases, trade what they know for information about another country. Some of Stratfor's 150,000 Web subscribers -- who include devotees in the military, foreign governments and Fortune 500 companies -- have become informants as well. ''I'll give you a range,'' Friedman said. ''A senior commander, the head of one of the services of a NATO member, communicates with us continually. Down at the other end, I just got an e-mail from somebody at Fort Hood who's an enlisted man. And they are everywhere in between. A great deal of the information they give me is dubious, O.K.? But a lot of it is valuable.''
These sources correspond with Friedman and Victor by e-mail or cellphone at all hours of the day. This business of private-sector spying seems remarkably similar to the daily activities of your average 16-year-old: it entails a lot of sitting around with a computer, instant-messaging everyone you know.
On the morning after the opening strike of the war, I was sitting with Friedman in his hotel room when we were interrupted by Meredith. ''Apaches,'' she said.
Friedman snapped upright. ''The Apaches are moving?'' He had expected bombing first; now the ground forces were mobilizing. He returned his wire-frame glasses to his nose and swiveled his chair back toward the computer in a single motion.
''O.K. - right now, it gets really, really interesting,'' he told me, reaching for the phone. ''You don't know how badly this violates all the doctrines of joint operations we've been taught in the last 10 years.''
Soon a midlevel officer in the Air Force was e-mailing Friedman. ''Is this starting to make sense to you now?'' the officer asked, almost tauntingly. ''You had most of it laid out in your diary'' -- a daily feature on the Web site -- ''but the timing is/has been difficult to project, even from where I was/is. I'm available tonight if you have questions.''
Friedman smiled. ''I wrote a piece saying this war would be different from every other war, because it was dynamic and would not have a fixed plan,'' he told me. ''But it's really strange sitting here watching it happen.''
I watched as Friedman discussed these unfolding events with his analysts in Austin before deciding what interpretation to post on the Stratfor site. The company has about 20 full-time analysts, and the internal debate over their divergent theories -- Friedman calls it a seance -- can sometimes veer into the surreal, if not the delusional.
Several days later, for instance, as it became apparent to Friedman that the military was facing a troop shortage, he and his chief analyst, Matt Baker, studied a wall-size map of the region. Baker offered the possibility that U.S. forces might allow the Turks to invade from the north and slaughter the Kurds if that would enable the Americans to get to Baghdad quicker. Friedman pondered this as if it now fell to him to make a difficult battlefield decision. ''I can live with that deal,'' he said. ''Can you?''
In the years after the tech boom collapsed, a few unforeseen calamities befell Wall Street. First there was the attack on the World Trade towers and the following war on terrorism. All at once, a new era of geopolitical turmoil burst upon the street, as investors worried that uncontrollable events might lead to soaring oil prices or failing airlines. Then the Henry Blodgets of the world fell into disgrace, along with the brokerage firms that created them. These crises created a vacuum of credible advice.
The natural beneficiaries of this misfortune have been the handful of firms who use inside information to analyze global events for investors. One outfit, Medley Global Advisors -- founded by Richard Medley, a former Yale professor and Congressional economist -- advises clients on geopolitical risks, ranging from war in Iraq to the spreading virus SARS. Another, Eurasia Group, puts out an index with Lehman Brothers that measures the financial and political stability of emerging markets.
These larger, high-end companies look down on Stratfor, which has four Web sites -- including one for the energy industry and one specifically for the Iraq war -- with sharp graphics, a pop-up window and various price packages, starting as low as $49.95 for six months. They see it as the Drudge Report of global analysis, a tip sheet posing as serious forecasting. There's some basis for this charge; Stratfor has a habit of throwing a lot of unconfirmed rumors onto its Web site. And yet there is a kind of genius in Stratfor's approach. The markets now are increasingly dominated by jumpy day traders and short-term bettors -- the perfect audience for Stratfor's rapid-fire postings. A trader who sees a bit of good news on the Stratfor site should be able to buy stock before the mini-rally and sell it later in the day for a tidy profit.
In at least one instance leading up to the war, for example, Stratfor moved the financial markets all by itself when it reported that a Russian envoy was en route to Baghdad to negotiate peace with the Iraqis. That sent the Dow into a spasm of momentary optimism.
Day traders aren't the only ones who have taken note. In recent weeks, Salomon Smith Barney organized calls with Friedman for fund managers and clients. Immediately after the U.S. invasion, Friedman began holding early-morning conference calls, six days a week, with hundreds of traders at Wall Street's biggest firms. Access to one of these calls costs $100, but if you just can't get enough of Friedman's wisdom, you can get a package of 30 calls for just $1,800.
here is a temptation, when you are around George Friedman, to treat him like a Magic 8 Ball. Does North Korea really have the bomb? No. Will America's feud with France deepen? Yes. Will Bush win re-election? Ask again later.
As Baghdad's statues of Saddam toppled on cable TV, Friedman predicted there was little chance that the United States would ever bring Saddam into custody. ''I'm not sure we really want to capture Saddam,'' he told me. ''If we capture him, we can't just shoot him down.''
I asked about the reconstruction.
''I think Iraq will have a formally independent government that will be in perpetual gridlock and chaos,'' he said. ''And essentially, there will be a U.S. military administration utilizing NGO's that can do a lot of the heavy lifting in the country.''
''And will there still be U.S. troops there in a year?''
''Oh, absolutely,'' he said. ''The whole reason for the war is to get American troops into the region to put pressure on other governments. This is going to be the main American military base in the region.''
The next confrontation, he told me, will most likely be with Iran, although Syria and Pakistan are serious trouble spots as well. The markets will be upended by turmoil in two oil-producing countries that no one is paying much attention to: Nigeria and Indonesia.
Not all of this -- maybe none of it, for that matter -- will come to pass. This doesn't really concern Friedman. ''If you're right 99 percent of the time, you're not making really interesting calls,'' he likes to say. Either way, George Friedman is living his dream. It's the colorful battlefield maps and secret informants -- not the direction of the Dow -- that drive him to do what he does. For Wall Street, predicting geopolitics is a business. For Friedman, it's the ultimate war game, and he's getting paid to play.
''Your 15 minutes are here, Friedman,'' he muttered to himself as we drove in his Lexus from San Antonio to Austin. Meredith asked him what he meant by that.
''I'm just saying,'' he said. ''All your life you know useless and obscure things. And suddenly. . . .'' His voiced trailed off thoughtfully. ''It is a fairly strange experience.''
He stared out the window. There are some mysteries for which even George Friedman has no answer.
Matt Bai is a contributing writer for the magazine. He last wrote about Lincoln Chafee.
Ah, nothing quite like Stratfor claiming that the battle for Baghdad would be bloody beyond belief, street to street, house to house fighting to the death...
How about Stratfor's prediction right after 9/11 that there would now be a sea-change in American-Israeli relations, drastically and for the worse. These guys have a (much) lower batting average than even Debka.
I asked how he knew that, since it still wasn't on TV. ''I can't tell you where that came from,'' he replied.
Freepers who had the 'live Baghdad video cam" on heard the bombings before TV announced it. I had the 'live cam' on. My husband heard the bombs from the 'puter, looked at me and said what is that? I said it sounded like bombing --- and sure enough, a moment later it came over Fox.
Nothing like modern internetting!!
Is the new home of the hopeless, fatuous, feckless, and ignorant John Pike.
He jumped ship from the "Federation" of "American" "Scientists" to his new roost.
Look at his bio. Strangely it lists no academic institutions attended, no degrees, no credentials.
As I have pointed out before, I've written him several times to point out this 'unfortunate oversight' and urging him to update the CV to include his credentials...with no response.
This is the man who once referred to the Apollo I fire as an 'explosion'. There was no explosion, just an intense fire in a pure oxygen environment.
--Boris
yeah- this guy had a staffer who posted a piece in The Village Voice about the MOAB in which he claimed:
It could only be dropped by a cargo plane (false- can be dropped by B2)
It was a "dumb" bomb (false-uses GPS/"Waffle" vanes to direct it)
Since it could only be dropped by cargo planes, which are vulnerable to AA, it was to be used against people who could not shoot back, thus it was unfair. (not even going to bother whith that one.
Went to GSOs website, and noticed they had a "begging Cup" banner up. Emailed him, asking why he would have such a twit on his payroll, when said twit was, well, a twit who would make them look bad. He eamiled back and said (approx) "we have many diverse opinions amongst out contributors"
LOL! Sounds like the reasons the NYTs listed for not firing Jayson Blair.
That aside, this is a logical outcome of the internet. A fellow nowadays has access to a lot of intelligence. Much can be gleaned simply from reading foreign newspapers. This wasn't possible for the average person just a little while back.
As a an ever increasing premium gets placed upon timely and accurate intelligence and prognostications, intelligence gathering will become a very lucrative and competitive business. With the technology that's readily available out there and the mountains of money at stake we may eventually see private intelligence companies outstrip our government versions. It's a weird thought but we might see the CIA one day "outsourcing" their intel gathering requirements to the private sector.
What'll be interesting is when turf wars develop and the private spooks start knocking each other off.
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