Spooky (Article on Founder of Stratfor.com)

New York Times Magazine ^ | April 20, 2003 | Matt Bai

[m1911]

'''If you're right 99 percent of the time, you're not making really interesting calls,'' '

I'm sure the high-rollers he claims pay him for info are thrilled with that quote. And with the performance StratFor gave in the Iraq war. LOL.

[Southack]

Ah, nothing quite like Stratfor claiming that the battle for Baghdad would be bloody beyond belief, street to street, house to house fighting to the death...

[Mr. Mojo]

And with the performance StratFor gave in the Iraq war. LOL.

How about Stratfor's prediction right after 9/11 that there would now be a sea-change in American-Israeli relations, drastically and for the worse. These guys have a (much) lower batting average than even Debka.

[Sonny M]

Personally, I think the best 2 groups are Janes and GlobalSecurity.org, I'd be very interested if someone knows better ones, Stratfor seems overrated to me.

[m1911]

I always read StratFor posts because they have a different perspective and I learn a lot from Freepers discounting their supposed intelligence. I think they got enamored of "Victor" and the iraqwar.ru guys during the Iraq war and lost their minds. But mostly I read them for a combination of humor, keeping an eye out for the times they get it right (broken clocks and so forth) and for the discussions they open up.

[Exit148]

"Then, suddenly, Meredith's cellphone rang. ''Triple A going crazy over Baghdad!'' she called out. (''Triple A,'' or AAA, I learned, is what the pros call anti-aircraft artillery.) Friedman grabbed the phone. ''Repeat,'' he commanded. He listened, then informed me that the war had begun.

I asked how he knew that, since it still wasn't on TV. ''I can't tell you where that came from,'' he replied.

Freepers who had the 'live Baghdad video cam" on heard the bombings before TV announced it. I had the 'live cam' on. My husband heard the bombs from the 'puter, looked at me and said what is that? I said it sounded like bombing --- and sure enough, a moment later it came over Fox.

Nothing like modern internetting!!

[PoisedWoman]

The big stock traders think they are doing quite well if they are correct 70% of the time. I enjoy Stratfor for long-range forecasts and broad-stroke overviews. I'm always happy to see articles from them posted here.

[boris]

"GlobalSecurity.org"

Is the new home of the hopeless, fatuous, feckless, and ignorant John Pike.

He jumped ship from the "Federation" of "American" "Scientists" to his new roost.

Look at his bio. Strangely it lists no academic institutions attended, no degrees, no credentials.

As I have pointed out before, I've written him several times to point out this 'unfortunate oversight' and urging him to update the CV to include his credentials...with no response.

This is the man who once referred to the Apollo I fire as an 'explosion'. There was no explosion, just an intense fire in a pure oxygen environment.

--Boris

[Porterville]

I prefer Art Bell, atleast I can believe in Bigfoot.

[mikegi]

I was a fan of stratfor.com after 9/11. When the standard media was falling all over themselves jacking up the number killed in the WTC attacks (it got to 20,000+ in some reports), stratfor gave a number of 3000 to 5000. It turned out that their analysis was correct.

A second hit was their analysis of the options we had going into Afghanistan. Since I knew next to nothing about Afghanistan, their list of options and background made for good reading. They were also correct.

Unfortunately, stratfor blew a gasket in early 2002. They bought into the bogus story that we had far larger casualties in Afghanistan than were reported. This was unforgivable. Any fool knew that the instant AQ took one of our people captive or had bodies, they would release video tapes. No tapes appeared.

Anyway, stratfor remains above debka.com on my credibility list but not by nearly as much as before.

[arjay]

I am bothered by the "informants" he has in the American military, especially an officer who makes himself available. It would seem to me that this is pretty close to betrayal of one's country.

[Sonny M]

I think your pretty much right, except that it also leaves him totally wide open to being manipulated (i.e. the best lie is hidden between 2 truths and giving him basic info that he will get anyway maybe a day or hours before its released, gain credibilty, then feed him crap when it counts), there is also the chance of info exchange, they give him something, he gives them something, but from my point of view, when they mess around with him, it leaves him with a lot of egg on his face.

[Leisler]

'Thay, you're not twying to sthlap a flella awound, are you?"

[fourdeuce82d]

John Pike

yeah- this guy had a staffer who posted a piece in The Village Voice about the MOAB in which he claimed:

It could only be dropped by a cargo plane (false- can be dropped by B2)

It was a "dumb" bomb (false-uses GPS/"Waffle" vanes to direct it)

Since it could only be dropped by cargo planes, which are vulnerable to AA, it was to be used against people who could not shoot back, thus it was unfair. (not even going to bother whith that one.

Went to GSOs website, and noticed they had a "begging Cup" banner up. Emailed him, asking why he would have such a twit on his payroll, when said twit was, well, a twit who would make them look bad. He eamiled back and said (approx) "we have many diverse opinions amongst out contributors"

[maro]

You can get your batting average up by sticking to the obvious. The average goes down when you take a position on tough questions. I think that is what the guy means. And so a stock trader who gets 60% accuracy on questions that move markets will be very happy--he cleans up over time.

[jokar]

Bump

[bvw]

So you are saying Pike peaked?

[wastoute]

Ever notice how much he (Pike) lookslike one of the characters from the trio of nerds in the X-files? LOL

[Prodigal Son]

"we have many diverse opinions amongst out contributors"

LOL! Sounds like the reasons the NYTs listed for not firing Jayson Blair.

That aside, this is a logical outcome of the internet. A fellow nowadays has access to a lot of intelligence. Much can be gleaned simply from reading foreign newspapers. This wasn't possible for the average person just a little while back.

As a an ever increasing premium gets placed upon timely and accurate intelligence and prognostications, intelligence gathering will become a very lucrative and competitive business. With the technology that's readily available out there and the mountains of money at stake we may eventually see private intelligence companies outstrip our government versions. It's a weird thought but we might see the CIA one day "outsourcing" their intel gathering requirements to the private sector.

What'll be interesting is when turf wars develop and the private spooks start knocking each other off.