How Assault Weapons Import Ban Cost Bush 41 Re-Election

"Unintended Consequences" ^ | 1996 | John Ross

[Atlas Sneezed]

What follows is an excerpt from a historical novel:

"Haven't seen a single Bush bumper sticker," Henry Bowman said calmly as he took another drink of his soda. John Parker nodded.

"No sh**. I think he's going to lose."

"Lose, hell," Henry said. "He's already thrown the election." Parker raised an eyebrow in a questioning gesture. Henry continued. "We'd've been much better off with Michael Dukakis, from a civil rights standpoint, at least."

"What do you mean?" This came from a slender man in a khaki shirt who had overheard the conversation.

"Bush banned semiauto imports by executive order in '89. Got his 'Drug Czar' buddy to say it was a wonderful idea. Could Dukakis have gotten away with that? Hell, no. He wouldn't have dared try it, because the Republicans in the House and Senate wouldn't have played ball. They'd have screamed bloody murder. Bush got away with it, though, 'cause he's a Republican, and now it's going to cost him the election."

"Come on, Henry," Parker said, forcefully but without rancor. "Bush has all kinds of problems. The economy is lousy, and people haven't forgiven him for breaking his 'no new taxes' promise."

"And let's face it," Karen Hill added, "a lot of voters, particularly women, don't like his anti-abortion stance. Those are the things that're going to end up costing him the Presidency." Henry Bowman was shaking his head. A crowd was starting to gather, but no one interrupted.

"I'll give you the taxes thing, but that's still only a small factor, and I'll prove it to you in a second. Your other issues are curtain dressing. Economy? The economy was terrible in 1982, and the public didn't turn against Ronald Reagan. Reagan was also at least as much against abortion as Bush, and more women voted for him than Carter in '80 or Mondale in '84. The reason George Bush will lose in three weeks is because he sold us out on gun rights." Henry Bowman and John Parker both saw a number of the people around them nodding in agreement. John Parker began to protest.

"That may be a part of it, but-"

"No 'buts', John. I'll prove it to you. Look around. How many guys do you see here right now who you know saw active duty and are proud of it? I don't mean everybody wearing camo--anyone can buy that at K-Mart. I mean guys wearing boonie hats and dog tags with their division numbers on' em, or guys in Gulf War uniforms, or old guys with tattoos and shrapnel wounds and arms missing. How many do you see around here right now? A lot, right?

"George Bush is a genuine war hero from the Second World War, right? And last year he got a half million men over to Iraq, ran Hussein out of Kuwait, and only lost- what? Eighty soldiers? That's less than I would expect would get killed in a half-million-man training exercise with no enemy." The people gathered around were nodding in agreement.

"So?" John Parker said.

"So Bush is a war hero--I really mean that--and look who he's running against. Should be no contest among vets proud of their military service, right?" Henry grinned wickedly at John Parker. "Just go around and ask some of these vets here if they're going to vote for the President in three weeks. Take your own poll."

"I'm not!" shouted a veteran of Korea who had been listening to Henry's argument. "Your friend's dead right."

"Me neither," spat another. "He sold us out." A half-dozen other veterans grunted in agreement. No one contradicted what Henry Bowman had said.

"Is anyone here--not just veterans, but anyone--planning to vote for Bush?" Henry asked in a loud voice. No one volunteered with an affirmative answer. John Parker's mouth opened in amazement.

"Too many Republicans have this crazy idea that since their party usually isn't quite as much in favor of throwing away the linchpin of the Bill of Rights, they can take our votes for granted," Henry said to what was now a crowd of forty or fifty people. "In a few weeks, they're going to find out that taking us for granted was the biggest mistake they ever made in their lives. Except that the news will undoubtedly focus on the abortion issue, or the bad economy, or how Bush didn't seem compassionate, or some other horse-sh**, and miss the real story."

"You really think we're the ones going to cost him the election?" a man in his fifties asked. "Not sayin' I disagree with you, but...everyone always acts like all the other issues are the real important ones. You know-the ones that get elections won or lost."

"Let me ask everyone here a question, then," Henry said. It was obvious he believed in what he was about to say.

"Pretend I'm George Bush, and it's Monday, the day after tomorrow. The first debate-which is tomorrow night-is over. I didn't say anything at all about the gun issue in the debate. It's now Monday, okay? Since I'm still the President, I tell the networks I'm going to give a State of the Union address, or a press conference, or whatever you call it on short notice. I'm going to give it that night, since the second debate isn't for a couple of days. I get up in front of the cameras, and here's the speech that goes out over every network Monday night." Henry looked over at John Parker. "Cut me some slack if I get some details wrong; I'm winging it here, okay?" He cleared his throat.

"My fellow Americans, I would like to address a serious issue which faces our country today: the gradual erosion of the individual rights of our honest citizens. Our government, including my administration, must shoulder much of the blame for this problem. It is time for me to acknowledge and repair the damage that has been done."

Henry paused for a moment to collect his thoughts before continuing.

"The Soviet Union has collapsed. People around the world are throwing off their yokes of oppression and tasting freedom for the first time. It is an embarrassing fact, how-ever, that our government has forgotten about individual rights here at home. It is time to acknowledge and correct the infringements we have inflicted upon our citizens in the name of 'crime control'.

"Decent, honest Americans are being victimized by a tiny fraction of the population, and it is our government's fault. It is our fault because we politicians have continually passed laws that stripped the law-abiding of their rights. As a result we have made the crime problem much worse.

"Our great economic power comes from the fact that Americans determine their own economic destiny. It is time we let Americans once again determine their own physical destiny." Henry Bowman saw the audience hanging on his words. He took a breath and went on.

"In 1989 I prohibited importation of firearms mechanically and functionally identical to weapons made before the Wright Brothers' invention of the airplane in 1903. I hoped that banning these guns would reduce crime. It hasn't. The only people denied the weapons that I banned are those citizens in our country who obey our laws. These are not the people our government should punish, and I now see what a terrible decision that was. "Some politicians are now calling for a national 5-day waiting period to purchase a handgun. The riots last spring showed us the tragedy of that kind of policy. One congressman has even introduced a bill to repeal the Second Amendment to our Constitution. The Bill of Rights enumerates human rights, it does not grant them. That is something that we in government have forgotten. Repealing the Second Amendment would not legitimize our actions any more than repealing the Fifth Amendment would authorize us to kill whoever we wanted."

Henry noticed several people smile at the notion of George Bush acknowledging his responsibility for government intrusions in a State of the Union address.

"All dictatorships restrict or prohibit the honest citizen's access to modern small arms. Anywhere this right is not restricted, you will find a free country.

"There is a name for a society where only the police have guns. It is called a police state. The Second Amendment in the Bill of Rights is not about duck hunting, any more than the First Amendment is about playing Scrabble. The entire Bill of Rights is about individual freedom.

"In my recent trip to St. Louis, Missouri, I found that violent criminals have a government guarantee that honest people are unarmed if they're away from their homes or businesses. It's a felony for a citizen to carry a gun for protection. Giving evil, violent people who ignore our laws a government guarantee that decent people are completely helpless is terrible public policy. It is dangerous public policy. Our Federal and State governments have betrayed the honest citizens of this country by focusing on inanimate objects instead of violent criminal behavior, and I am ashamed to have been a party to it. It is time to correct that betrayal.

"Accordingly, I am lifting the import ban on weapons with a military appearance, effective immediately. I am abandoning any and all proposals to ban honest citizens from owning guns or magazines that hold more than a certain number of cartridges. I will veto any bill that contains any provision which would make it illegal, more difficult, or more expensive for any honest citizen to obtain any firearm or firearm accessory that it is now lawful for him to own. I will also encourage the removal of laws currently in effect which punish honest adults for mere ownership or possession of weapons or for paperwork errors involving weapons. I will work to effect repeal of the Gun Control Act of 1968 and the National Firearms Act of 1934 in their entirety.

"Tomorrow I will appoint a task force to investigate abusive practices of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms. I will ask for recommendations as to how that department can be made to shift its focus from technical and paperwork errors to violent criminal activity. I will demand the resignations of all agents and supervisors who have participated in any entrapment schemes or planting of evidence.

"Our government has betrayed its citizens and tomorrow morning I intend to start correcting that. Good night."

Screams of "Yeah!," "Damn right!," and "That's it!" came amidst tremendous applause from the several dozen people who had been standing around listening.

"Okay, that's the speech," Henry said in his normal voice after the applause had died down. He did not notice the look on John Parker's face. "Then, the next morning on the news, you see that Bush has indeed rescinded the import ban, he's named the people on the Task Force, and he's fired Bill Bennett. A couple of senators have offered to draft legislation repealing the National Firearms Act and GCA '68, and you hear Bush say on camera that he's all for it, and you hear him encourage other legislators to support this much-needed reform.

"Question number one: What are all of you going to do now?"

"Do everything we can to get George Bush re-elected!" one man yelled immediately. He was joined by a dozen similar responses. Henry Bowman laughed.

"Not bad. And we haven't even asked question number two, and it's the real clincher: If George Bush gave the speech I just gave and did the things I just described, how many people who were already going to vote for him do you think would change their minds? How many people do you think would say 'Boy, I was going to vote for Bush, but now I'm not going to'?"

"Nobody," John Parker said under his breath. "Anyone who didn't like your speech would already be against the President." John Parker was thinking frantically.

"Exactly. So he picks up four or five million votes, and loses none."

[Atlas Sneezed]

From page 488 et seq. of the 5th printing.

[Atlas Sneezed]

Bang

[Terpfen]

Of course, Clinton's economy rhetoric and Perot's vote-sapping had NOTHING to do with Bush 41 leaving office... nothing at all...

[HuntsvilleTxVeteran]

We need to come up with a way to defuse these
one issue Republicans.
They say if you don't agree with my one issue,
we will keep democrats in power to punish any-
one who doesn't agree one hundred percent with
my one issue!

[Tailback]

And Al Gore losing West Virginia (a rural state that always votes Dem) in the 2000 election had nothing to do with the perception that Gore would continue with Clinton's anti gun policies.

[Tailback]

Who's we?

[HamiltonJay]

hahahahahaha Bush 41 lost because he RAISED TAXES and RAN A HORRIBLE RE-ELECTION CAMPAIGN, and also had the press overwhelmingly ejaculating over his Democratic opponent... may not like the Ban on "assault weapons"... but that's not what cost him the election

[gtech]

We need to come up with a way to defuse these one issue Republicans. They say if you don't agree with my one issue, we will keep democrats in power to punish any- one who doesn't agree one hundred percent with my one issue!

This one's EASY! Do your part to make sure congress doesn't pass this awful bill, and make sure the president knows that you have an interest in it not getting passed. Simple as that and thousands of "one-issue" voters start working for your candidate, let alone millions voting voting for him.

[jeremiah]

George Bush lost the election all by himself. He was solely responsible for the lack of focus of his campaign, the rise of Perot, and 8 years of Clinton. He was a horrible campaigner, endearing himself only to hard-core Republican voters. Any candidate must nail down his base, and sway the independents. He did a poor job on both counts.

[Servant of the Nine]

There is no way I would vote for a democrat, but if Bush signs a renewal of the "assault Rifle" ban, I am staying home.

Call it half a vote against him.

So9

[coloradan]

You could vote libertarian ... hypothetically speaking.

[Shooter 2.5]

We might get a better answer as to what cost him the election after September of 2004.

[Brian S]

I remember that election day quite well in 1992. It was the first time I walked into a voting booth to vote for President undecided. Clinton certainly wasn't an option but I toyed with a protest vote for Perot. When it was time to punch, Clinton flashed through my mind and I voted for Bush.

He ran a horrible campaign and his heart just wasn't in it. Somebody on TV was discussing the '92 election and kept mentioning 41's health problem. I can't remember what that problem was?

[Nick Danger]

Something about this doesn't make any sense. The assault weapons ban is not due to expire until September 2004. That means that any struggle to renew it will be going on as the 2004 elections approach.

Many people in the Democratic Party believe that Al Gore would be President today were it not for his stand on gun control. They think it cost him several states, including his home state of Tennessee. Not many Democrats, therefore, will be all that anxious to champion this renewal. The usual suspects from states like New York and California will certainly be trumpeting the cause, but they are likely to see less support than they'd like from their colleagues in less urban states.

Left to proceed on its own, an assault weapons ban renewal is likely to be a big issue for the media, Chuck, Hillary, and Diane... and that's about it. Most Republicans will be against it, and most Democrats will be hiding in a bunker until it goes away. The likelihood of it getting through the Senate, let alone the House, is near zero.

So why would the White House send some "spokesman" (you'll notice it wasn't Bush, Ari, or Karl) out to raise this issue more than a year before it is likely to come up in Congress? The White House could have ignored the whole thing; odds are it will never land on Bush's desk. Why take a position at all? And if you're going to take one, why take one that will be as popular with the base as "read my lips"?

This is not what it seems, folks. Bush has no reason to start crusading for a renewal of the assault weapons ban 16 months before it's due. It's not his issue, and it isn't time. Even if he was going to crusade for it, he wouldn't have sent some under-assistant deputy spokesman out to sound the trumpet.

This is some kind of Stategery. It's probably intended to bait the Dems into doing something stupid.

[GunRunner]

Bush lost for one reason: Ross Perot. Nothing more, nothing less.

[longtermmemmory]

can anyone tell me if a child is prescribed ritalin, do they lose their second ammendment rights? ability to get a CCW permit?

I know this is not directly related but there is another thread where this would be useful.

[Paul C. Jesup]

Of course Bush Jr. could use the renewing of the "Assault Weapons Import Ban" as leverage to get the tax cuts HE WANTS passed through the Senate.

[longtermmemmory]

I agree this comming out now stinks. What is the back ground of the person who said this? is this a leaker? This feels more like a troll by democrats to divide republicans who feel strong about the second ammendment.

[always vigilant]

up

[AAABEST]

Of course, Clinton's economy rhetoric and Perot's vote-sapping had NOTHING to do with Bush 41 leaving office... nothing at all...

Actually, there are some very credible studies that show Bush would have lost anyway, with or without Perot. Rush was just talking about this the other day.

Bush I lost by a small margin, just as Bush II won by a small margin. There are many reasons why either could have won or lost. Point is it's stupid to take for granted millions of gun owners votes to kneepad for liberals who can't make up for it.