Deadly SARS Spreads World-Wide: Death Rate Increases and Doctors Worry About Mutating Virus

NewsPundit.net ^ | 4/18/2003 | Douglas Oliver

[ex-Texan]

Deadly SARS Spreads World-Wide: Death Rate Also Increases and Doctors Worry About Mutating Virus

This is more evidence that SARS may be much worse that World Health Officials are admitting. The New York Times is reporting today that the death rate in Toronto, Canada is 9.5% and the mystery disease is still spreading rapidly around the world. Now the disease has spread to 27 countries. I quote from that report:

* * * As of yesterday, 27 countries and Hong Kong have reported a total of 3,389 cases. The number of cases in the United States was sharply reduced yesterday, to 35, from 208, when federal health officials, as expected, adopted the World Health Organization's stricter definition of probable SARS cases.

Worldwide, SARS is blamed for 165 deaths, for a death rate of 4.9 percent, the W.H.O. reported.

But for unknown reasons, the death rate in Canada is about double; 12 of the country's 126 cases have been fatal, a death rate of 9.5 percent. * * *

In other reports, medical scientists are openly worrying that China may have greatly understated the number of its cases. CNN is reporting today that China has been secretly moving many of its SARS cases into military hospitals.

The Taiwan News has reported this morning that WHO officials are concerned that by doing so China may have hidden as many as 1,000 cases in military hospitals and intentionally understated the number of deaths reported. As many as 100 to 200 additional deaths from this mystery virus may have been hidden by Beijing. Quoting briefly from that report:

* * * "They (the WHO experts) also estimated there are between 100-200 probable cases in Beijing, more than has been reported, and they feel that there might even be up to 1,000 people who are under observation right now," Heymann told a briefing in Geneva, adding that many of those may not be SARS cases.

The illness has already spread to a number of provinces, cities and regions in the world's most populous nation and Heymann feared the disease could spread further in coming weeks as millions of Chinese take a week-long holiday in early May.

But there is more bad news emerging about this Chinese mystery virus. Doctors are beginning to fear the virus may be mutating into an even more deadly form as it spreads around the world. From a report in New Scientist any mutation in the virus is a genuine cause for even more concern.

If health officials are correct about the potential number of unreported cases in China, and also about under-reported deaths from SARS, their real concern may be understated greatly. Assuming that China has understated its cases by only 50% of number mentioned by WHO: the total number of cases would have to adjusted upwards to 3,889. Then the number of deaths would have to be adjusted upward as well by 100 or 200 -- to possibly total of 265 or even to 365.

That would mean a rather dramatic increase in the death rate percentage from the old estimate of 4.9%, to a new estimated range of 6.8% to 9.3%.

How very strange ... Because the newly adjusted death rate is nearly identical to the rate in Canada today. But I do not want to engage in wild speculation. What I would like are some answers.

What I would like to know is why China is hiding SARS patients from WHO officials in its "secretive" military hospitals. Is their goal to protect the general population ? Or is their goal to confuse health officials and prevent them from learning the true cause of this dreaded disease?

[HELLRAISER II]

Can you say "The Stand".

[iceskater]

Hey per loin, did you see this one?

[Black Agnes]

ping.

[blam]

" Or is their goal to confuse health officials and prevent them from learning the true cause of this dreaded disease?"

These Chinese actions sure lend more credence to these suspicions.

Other than buying surgical masks, how does a family prepare?

[jnarcus]

Death rate is hghest in those countries and cities were hygiene is not what it is in the US---handing washing is not a common occurrence throughout the world. SARS no matter the origin is similar to the common cold and the best way to avoid it or limit its effects is to practise the usual extra and washing during flu season

[Judith Anne]

I don't know what to do to prepare for an epidemic. The same as for any other natural disaster? I'm prepared for a natural disaster, but living during an epidemic is not something I can imagine...

[CathyRyan]

I guess look to see what HK is doing? people are people and what they do is probably what we will do too?

[CathyRyan]

My cat just killed a snake and left it at the backdoor. Outside and the great weather are not looking as inviting as it did a few hours ago. LOL

[CJ Wolf]

Hide in your house, don't go to church(continue your donations though) or malls. Get your kids out of schools/day care and don't go to work. Riding elevators with coughing people who have recently traveled to toronto is really dangerous.

[blam]

"The same as for any other natural disaster? I'm prepared for a natural disaster, but living during an epidemic is not something I can imagine..."

I have the natural disaster covered too. I guess I'll stay in the woods.

[aristeides]

handing washing is not a common occurrence throughout the world.

But I assume it is in Canada.

[_Jim]

This is more evidence that SARS may be much worse

There is MORE evidence to say that SARS is coming under control ...

[Blue_Ridge_Mtn_Geek]

"That would mean a rather dramatic increase in the death rate percentage from the old estimate of 4.9%, to a new estimated range of 6.8% to 9.3%. "

This growth in estimated mortality rate, as experience develops, is consistent with reporting of major natural disasters. If you think about it, when a large earthquake or major storm occurs, early reports list small numbers of casualties, and then over the next several days, more complete data is reported.

In this case, the reporting delays have been increased by the reflexive suppression of bad news by the Chinese government, but even without that, the extent of this epidemic, and its severity, remain to be determined. Given the estimate of at least a year before effective vaccines can be developed (RIGHT - - - just like we have an effective vaccine for the common cold!) I would take this news very seriously, and do some reading on how past epidemics (e.g. the post-WWI "Spanish Influenza") were handled, and work from there.

[RicocheT]

It's not just hand washing that's rare outside the US.

A common sight in China is someone bending over, pinching his nose and blowing the result onto the ground. For some reason, they think a handkerchief or kleenex is rude. Oh, they spit all the time too. This is most common with people from the countryside.

[per loin]

Thanks for the ping. The death rate for Hong Kong seems now to be at a minimum of 7% of the hospitalized cases. Too little info is getting out to tell how far above that mimimum the actual figure will be.

[RockyMtnMan]

I wouldn't say that, remember we are talking about China here. I would not put it past them to intentionally spread the outbreak if they thought it would hurt their own country. What we are seeing now could be the tip of a very large iceburg in China.

[aimhigh]

What I would like to know is why China is hiding SARS patients ..

Get serious. China's government says there is no God, trust us to provide your every need. They have to lie, or else their godlessness is exposed.

[TBall]

I don't know, for weeks the news reported that SARS had a 3% mortality rate. They should have reported that there were too many yet unknowns to determine a mortality rate.

[sytole]

I’m not a fear monger, I don’t panic easily and I’ve always been an optimist. Having said that I have been watching this thing from day one and I really can’t understand why you think it’s coming under control. I first watched this about a month ago with the first Toronto case. It started with 1 person. The entire medical establishment was informed and took every measure to bring it under control yet it has mushroomed from 4 probable cases in Canada to over 200 with over 300 suspected and many more under quarantine.

I just wish it would go away since I have a great many plans for the immediate future and they don’t involve plinking squirrels for dinner :). If it were under control then why did the death rate increase to 9.5% today and why has it spread to Montreall and even to the U.S. via Montreall. The numbers have been on a steady increase since day one. They do not indicate a diminishing problem.