[Blue_Ridge_Mtn_Geek]

"That would mean a rather dramatic increase in the death rate percentage from the old estimate of 4.9%, to a new estimated range of 6.8% to 9.3%. "

This growth in estimated mortality rate, as experience develops, is consistent with reporting of major natural disasters. If you think about it, when a large earthquake or major storm occurs, early reports list small numbers of casualties, and then over the next several days, more complete data is reported.

In this case, the reporting delays have been increased by the reflexive suppression of bad news by the Chinese government, but even without that, the extent of this epidemic, and its severity, remain to be determined. Given the estimate of at least a year before effective vaccines can be developed (RIGHT - - - just like we have an effective vaccine for the common cold!) I would take this news very seriously, and do some reading on how past epidemics (e.g. the post-WWI "Spanish Influenza") were handled, and work from there.

[TBall]

I don't know, for weeks the news reported that SARS had a 3% mortality rate. They should have reported that there were too many yet unknowns to determine a mortality rate.