Posted on 04/18/2003 11:35:09 AM PDT by ex-Texan
Deadly SARS Spreads World-Wide: Death Rate Also Increases and Doctors Worry About Mutating Virus
This is more evidence that SARS may be much worse that World Health Officials are admitting. The New York Times is reporting today that the death rate in Toronto, Canada is 9.5% and the mystery disease is still spreading rapidly around the world. Now the disease has spread to 27 countries. I quote from that report:
* * * As of yesterday, 27 countries and Hong Kong have reported a total of 3,389 cases. The number of cases in the United States was sharply reduced yesterday, to 35, from 208, when federal health officials, as expected, adopted the World Health Organization's stricter definition of probable SARS cases.In other reports, medical scientists are openly worrying that China may have greatly understated the number of its cases. CNN is reporting today that China has been secretly moving many of its SARS cases into military hospitals.Worldwide, SARS is blamed for 165 deaths, for a death rate of 4.9 percent, the W.H.O. reported.
But for unknown reasons, the death rate in Canada is about double; 12 of the country's 126 cases have been fatal, a death rate of 9.5 percent. * * *
The Taiwan News has reported this morning that WHO officials are concerned that by doing so China may have hidden as many as 1,000 cases in military hospitals and intentionally understated the number of deaths reported. As many as 100 to 200 additional deaths from this mystery virus may have been hidden by Beijing. Quoting briefly from that report:
But there is more bad news emerging about this Chinese mystery virus. Doctors are beginning to fear the virus may be mutating into an even more deadly form as it spreads around the world. From a report in New Scientist any mutation in the virus is a genuine cause for even more concern.* * * "They (the WHO experts) also estimated there are between 100-200 probable cases in Beijing, more than has been reported, and they feel that there might even be up to 1,000 people who are under observation right now," Heymann told a briefing in Geneva, adding that many of those may not be SARS cases.
The illness has already spread to a number of provinces, cities and regions in the world's most populous nation and Heymann feared the disease could spread further in coming weeks as millions of Chinese take a week-long holiday in early May.
If health officials are correct about the potential number of unreported cases in China, and also about under-reported deaths from SARS, their real concern may be understated greatly. Assuming that China has understated its cases by only 50% of number mentioned by WHO: the total number of cases would have to adjusted upwards to 3,889. Then the number of deaths would have to be adjusted upward as well by 100 or 200 -- to possibly total of 265 or even to 365.
That would mean a rather dramatic increase in the death rate percentage from the old estimate of 4.9%, to a new estimated range of 6.8% to 9.3%.
How very strange ... Because the newly adjusted death rate is nearly identical to the rate in Canada today. But I do not want to engage in wild speculation. What I would like are some answers.
What I would like to know is why China is hiding SARS patients from WHO officials in its "secretive" military hospitals. Is their goal to protect the general population ? Or is their goal to confuse health officials and prevent them from learning the true cause of this dreaded disease?
(Excerpt) Read more at newspundit.net ...
I would be too - were it NOT for outside medical personnel no in-country to observe and report on it.
It's not unhealthy to have skepticism about their reporting - they've already admitted to some foot-dragging on regarding reporting SARS!
Ofcourse, we don't know if she simply screwed up somewhere along the way and won't confess. Now, goggles are required for HCP caring for SARS patients.
The Associated Press,
WFLS News
(Richmond-AP) -- State health officials say another Virginian may be sick with severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS.
A woman in the Hanover Health District is suspected of having the illness. The health district is comprised of Hanover, New Kent, Charles City and Goochland counties.
That brings to six the current number of suspected SARS cases in the state. The number fluctuates as health officials identify new cases, or rule out others.
This latest case was reported to state health officials on Wednesday. No further details were released.
SARS has killed more than 170 people and sickened three-thousand worldwide.
http://fredericksburg.com/News/FLS/2003/042003/04182003/1050696837
What's not to trust?
Seriously, see the previous response to another poster above ...
There are other medical personnel there to observe now (NOT that they are *entirely* trustworthy either) PLUS we're working on it now (in this hemispere) and I'm *sure* they would hate to be 'shown up' working for a cure/coming up with the specifics of how this bug spreads and propagates ...
OTHERS have pointed out the weakness that poor hygene gives to these viral agents - and I think the populace is now 'scared' enough to start taking sneezing in public and other 'risky health practices' a little more seriously.
Yes, there's some reason to believe that Hong Kong is getting it under control.
On the other hand, we saw a similar, but much deeper trough after the Amoy Garden bulge. Also, fewer health care workers are being infected, so I'd suspect that what we are seeing are community or background cases. Further, there apears to be an average gap of about a week between onset of SARS and hospitalization.
So there's reason for hope, but it's much too soon to cheer.
" HONG KONG (AFP) - China's new president ordered health officials to stop covering up the SARS epidemic, amid reports of hundreds of hidden cases on the mainland and four more deaths in Hong Kong. .... ...."
My sister-in-law
workers for a giant business
in Seattle. (Not
Microsoft.) Last week
they had a big conference
with attendance from
all over the globe.
Today, my sister-in-law,
my brother, and more
than half a dozen
others from the gathering
are home, very sick,
complaining of flu.
(My brother's temperature
was 101 plus
the last time we talked.)
Just from people I've talked to,
this thing is bad. Bad.
My brother has a
regular doctor's visit
for early next week.
Even with the high
fever, he's trying to not
go to an ER.
He's assuming he
just has a bad flu. (I'm scared,
however, because
he says along with
the high fever, his back hurts
pretty bad. [?]) He wants
to struggle along
until his regular trip
next week to his doc.
(I told him to go
NOW, but, [sigh], older brothers
always know what's best...)
We're all terrified
that his wife's company held
a global meeting
in this health context,
and we're equally frightened
that, apparently,
nobody there's linked
the "flu" outbreak to something
bigger. We're hoping
for the best. (They have
a great hospital nearby.)
It's all we can do.
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