2004 Senate Update (Predictions for '04 Senate Races)

http://www.polipundit.com/ ^ | 4/17/03 2:00 | polipundit.com

[mabelkitty]

Hollings will definately retire. He isn't raising cash.

Daschle's Catholic problem may have repercussions for the whole party.

Edwards is in deep trouble. There are Dems in the state attempting to get a "same day registration/same day vote" law passed. This usually means Dems need fraud.

Asa Hutchinson is hot.

[madprof98]

Republicans will likely pick up this seat; it's just a question of which candidate will be nominated. I'd prefer a genuine conservative like Congressman Jack Kingston to a mushy moderate like Congressman Johnny Isaakson.

It's not just a matter of taste. Johnny Isakson is a Congressman right now only because Newt Gingrich "willed" him his old seat. On a statewide level, Isakson is a two-time loser whose ill-fated 1996 Senate campaign was based largely on his pro-abortion position. Unfortunately, he has already gathered in a tremendous amount of cash and the endorsement of allegedly conservative (but out-of-state corporate-owned) media outlets. If this Rockefeller RINO also gets the White House nod and takes the primary, social conservatives will sit out the race, and whatever Dem claims to be the New Zell will win.

[CyberAnt]

And ... her latest numbers are 43% to any repub 46%

[Califelephant]

Rosario Marin sounds good to beat Boxer in CA (Republican vote + Hispanic vote is a pretty good one-two punch), but hopefully she is a tough cookie, because Boxer can be brutal in the final days of a campaign.

[WillVoteForFood]

You may be right, but I've no doubts the Phlegms will gravy train any issue or subject, no matter how classless they will seem in doing so, to gain advantage.

[votelife]

Hollings- I'd be shocked if he ran again, given his age and the tragedy. He'll delay announcing for a little so as to not cause Dems to panic, but when he does, they will. I'm hoping B. Graham will see the writing on the wall, minority status for a while, and retire.

[mabelkitty]

If Jerry Springer runs in Ohio, Voinovich may lose.

Taft sux as a Governor, and the fiscal situation is a real mess.

Voinovich slashing tax cuts has caused some huge problems.

I'm not sure if Ohioans want to be called New York-stupid, but only time will tell.

We've needed Senate regime change for quite some time.

[mabelkitty]

How about this one by Pelosi:

"I stand by my no vote, I think we could have knocked down that statue a lot cheaper"

Just in time for all the troops to come stateside and vote.

[LS]

I heard Rush talk about a new poll showing "Puff" trailing Thune in a hypothetical vote by 4 points. More important, the "Puffster" is way below 50% in re-elect, which is usually a death sentence on an incumbent.

[bigfootbob]

"Just wondering how they've swung so far left over the past several years."

IMHO it has been liberal here for years. It started becoming insane when Microsoft took off and the Boeing/MacDonnell Douglas merger became reality. More Californians and other liberals moved here like fleas on a dirty dog after those two employers started recruiting.

[NYC Republican]

That's an excellent one, as is Kerry's "regime change" comment, shown in a split screen with SH's statue falling

[mabelkitty]

This Catholic thing is going to catch-on....this will have an affect Democrats.

[eureka!]

bump for later...

[firewalk]

.

[RightOnGOP]

My thoughts are.......Pat Toomey has jumped too soon. He should have waited a bit longer. Challenging Specter might not work out to our benefit. Now, Arlen could be more conservative but he's in an important seat (PA). We do not need to cannabilize our own.

And the big picture is always.......what kind of working margin does President Bush have in the Senate/House? We cannot cede any ground to those traitorous, self-interested, obstructionist Democrats.

This website's analysis makes it sound like Travelin' Johnny Edwards is wildly unpopular in NC, which is not true. Voters are just apathetic at this point, and things will be much closer than it appears, as we near Election Day 2004. NC is still a majority Dem state, which votes GOP in Prez races. It is still an uphill battle for other GOPers, both statewide and local. Edwards is too slick and too much of a liar to be underestimated, so let's don't.

[NYC Republican]

I can't imagine Thune losing the next time. Last year, he had a couple of things going against him- he had Daschle supporting Johnson, Daschle was the majority leader, so the state would lose a few perks, and he didn't have Pres Bush running on the ticket.

All of that will change this go round.

The only wild card/saving grace I see for Daschle is that he could play up a lie about not wanting to run for pres, instead wanting to serve his State for another 6 years- showing loyalty to his constituency.

I don't think it will work.

[LS]

I've called Voino already about the tax cut. That said, you must be joking: there is no way I would vote for Jerry Springer over Voino.

If you recall, Voino and DeWine BOTH voted for conviction of Clinton and against CFR. One (Voino) voted for ANWAR, and one (DeWine) voted for the tax cut. Both have voted for Estrada. DeWine is VERY strong on pro-life.

So when you look across the board, there is no way, most thoughtful conservatives would leave Voino if he faced SPRINGER. Now, a more conservative primary challenger? Sure.

[Always Right]

The only thing playing against Republicans is that moderates are uneasy having either party in complete power and will split their vote based on that. Republicans should pick up some seats, but it will be limited by moderate voters who will not vote a straight ticket.

[mabelkitty]

FBI is all over those Indian reservations for the fraud over the last election.

Tommy can't win, as they will stick around and watch it this time. I think he even know that.


However, his being the Senate Minority Leader and being slapped around by a Bishop will have repercussions.

[mabelkitty]

Remember the Governor's race this past November?

Hagan took Cuyahoga County only, out of 88 counties.
He didn't lose by a wide margin.

Springer is from Cincinnati.

He could win if he took both.

Never underestimate the fraud in Cleveland.