Assad's Situation

Slate ^ | 4/15/03 | Fred Kaplan

[BaghdadBarney]

Assad's Situation Syria's military machine may be hollow, but it isn't harmless

By Fred Kaplan Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2003, at 3:25 PM PT

Bashar Assad, the young president of Syria, has got to be more than a little nervous right now. George W. Bush's press spokesman has called his country "a rogue nation." Unnamed senior officials are labeling him a member of the "junior varsity axis of evil." Even before U.S. tanks zoomed into Baghdad, Donald Rumsfeld was warning him to stop helping high-level Iraqi refugees or face the consequences. Now that the three-week lightning war is over, Colin Powell is saying that, "in light of this new environment," Assad should review his "actions and … behavior" across the board. And unlike Saddam Hussein, who may well have deluded himself with all those video screenings of Black Hawk Down, Assad must know that the Syrian military is no match for even a lightweight U.S. assault, should Bush decide to launch one. On paper, Assad's armed forces seem formidable. His army has 215,000 soldiers with a similar number in the reserves. It includes eight armored divisions and three mechanized divisions, equipped with 4,700 tanks, 4,500 armored personnel carriers, 850 surface-to-air missiles, and 4,000 anti-aircraft guns. His air force consists of 40,000 personnel and 611 combat planes. By these measures, the Syrian military may appear to have more firepower than Saddam's did. However, in real life, it is burdened with at least as many shortcomings. . .

[BaghdadBarney]

Well... since we're in the neighborhood...

[SunStar]

4/10/03: ****RUMSFELD ORDERS PENTAGON DRAWING UP OF SYRIAN INVASION PLANS****

[alnitak]

An invasion of Syria is not on the cards (yet) for all the reasons mentioned in the article, plus the fact that it would probably result in a massive upsurge in anti-American feeling in Kuwait and the other Arab states - if they denied port access to the coalition we would have to "do a Dunkirk" and remove our troops from Iraq.

Better would be to "turn Lebanon into a new Lebanon" - send in special forces, CIA etc, and start sniping at the Syrian troops there until the Syrians detest the place and run for home.

[Sgt Hulka 123]

A mousy moustache and a hot wife. Not exactly the kind of things that inspire the arab street.

[2timothy3.16]

An intelligence source says that United States Defence Secetary Donald Rumsfeld last week ordered the drawing up of contingency plans for a possible invasion of Syria,

Like we have the US Ground and Air Forces in Iraq and the US Navy in the med off the syrian coast. And when the Preisdent says "Go" they both take off and meet in the middle.

21 days for Iraq, say 14 for Syria, maybe less.

[11th Earl of Mar]

Assad's armed forces seem formidable. His army has 215,000 soldiers with a similar number in the reserves. It includes eight armored divisions and three mechanized divisions, equipped with 4,700 tanks, 4,500 armored personnel carriers, 850 surface-to-air missiles, and 4,000 anti-aircraft guns. His air force consists of 40,000 personnel and 611 combat planes

So many targets, so little time.

[BaghdadBarney]

A little sarcasm on my part - but like all good sarcasm, it has a ring of truth in it.

I agree with much of your analysis on the Syria question. If any piece of land in the Middle East should interest us, it should be Lebanon. Lebanon's Beeka Valley is nothing more than a ClubMed for the international terrorism and should be wiped off the map. And besides, it would be nice again if Beruit were to re-assume its old title of the "Paris of the East". That way, American honeymooners could boycott Paris with a truly viable alternative...lol

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Seems like the Bush Doctrine should cover Syria , a nation with 10 major Terror organizations having their headquarters in Damascus!

I heard that on Foxnews!

Bush Doctrine Unfolds :

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[a_Turk]

Syria is chump-change. They were given this Turkish ultimatum and capitulated.

[BaghdadBarney]

"Hi, I'm Jack Berry, host of "21" ... Ladies and Gentleman, for those with so little time to pluck off 215,000 soldiers, 4,700 tanks, 4,500 armored personnel carriers, 850 surface-to-air missiles, and 4,000 anti-aircraft guns, there's the MOAB - 21,000 lbs. of pure dynamite! Sure to take out your terrorist regime in less than 5.6 seconds! And folks, just for trying out MOAB, we'll put into your order - absolutely free - our minnie-me version called the "DaisyCutter"! And no back to Twenty-One! Herb, you have 18 points...."

[RippleFire]

bump

[Bill Davis FR]

takeout the devil of damascus

[Bill Davis FR]

takeout the devil of damascus

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

ROFL!

[Sparta]

So, you've had your own dealing with the Syrians?

This time, I think Turkey would let us have bases to eliminate Al-Assad.

[Sparta]

Bump

[Brian Allen]

<< Excerpted - click for full article ^ >>

Why?

Do you work for Slate?

Do you get a kickback on the "hits?"

[foreshadowed at waco]

Apparently Assad was educated in London and he's an eye doctor...probably doesn't love the life and death politics of the Middle East...read somewhere yesterday that he has been afraid to move toward reforms because the Old Guard in Syria won't let go of power...he may step down.

[a_Turk]

I don't know.. We're pretty jealous when it comes to our neighbors :^ /

[chilepepper]

Totally agree. If GWB could get the Syrians and Iranis out of Lebanon, that would do at least as much for ME peace as taking out Saddam. If there are secret ultimatums being issued, these should be what is demanded.

if it should work, then i think GWB will start exerting real pressure on the Israelis for a peace accord w/ the Palis, and you know what? they may actually go for it since the weather around them has improved so much...