Hong Kong SARS Turns Deadlier.

perloin

[per loin]

Hospitalized Hong Kong SARS (Chicom Flu) Cases

Time			Cases				Increase			Disposition														Dead as % of prior time
Day	Date		New	Week	Total		One Day	Week		Got well			Dead			Total Gone			Now In Hospitals			Total Hosp Days		Week	2 Week	3 Week
										Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%
Wed	03/12		10		10														10	10	100.0%	10
Thu	03/13		14		24		140.0%												14	24	100.0%	34
Fri	03/14		5		29		20.8%												5	29	100.0%	63
Sat	03/15		8		37		27.6%												8	37	100.0%	100
Sun	03/16		5		42		13.5%												5	42	100.0%	142
Mon	03/17		53		95		126.2%												53	95	100.0%	237
Tue	03/18		28	123	123		29.5%												28	123	100.0%	360
Wed	03/19		27	140	150		22.0%	1400.0%		5	5	3.3%	5	5	3.3%	10	10	6.7%	17	140	93.3%	500		50.0%
Thu	03/20		23	149	173		15.3%	620.8%		0	5	2.9%	1	6	3.5%	1	11	6.4%	22	162	93.6%	662		25.0%
Fri	03/21		30	174	203		17.3%	600.0%		2	7	3.4%	0	6	3.0%	2	13	6.4%	28	190	93.6%	852		20.7%
Sat	03/22		19	185	222		9.4%	500.0%		0	7	3.2%	2	8	3.6%	2	15	6.8%	17	207	93.2%	1,059		21.6%
Sun	03/23		25	205	247		11.3%	488.1%		0	7	2.8%	2	10	4.0%	2	17	6.9%	23	230	93.1%	1,289		23.8%
Mon	03/24		13	165	260		5.3%	173.7%		5	12	4.6%	0	10	3.8%	5	22	8.5%	8	238	91.5%	1,527		10.5%
Tue	03/25		26	163	286		10.0%	132.5%		2	14	4.9%	0	10	3.5%	2	24	8.4%	24	262	91.6%	1,789		8.1%
Wed	03/26		30	166	316		10.5%	110.7%		2	16	5.1%	0	10	3.2%	2	26	8.2%	28	290	91.8%	2,079		6.7%	100.0%
Thu	03/27		51	194	367		16.1%	112.1%		3	19	5.2%	0	10	2.7%	3	29	7.9%	48	338	92.1%	2,417		5.8%	41.7%
Fri	03/28		58	222	425		15.8%	109.4%		6	25	5.9%	1	11	2.6%	7	36	8.5%	51	389	91.5%	2,806		5.4%	37.9%
Sat	03/29		45	248	470		10.6%	111.7%		18	43	9.1%	1	12	2.6%	19	55	11.7%	26	415	88.3%	3,221		5.4%	32.4%
Sun	03/30		60	283	530		12.8%	114.6%		21	64	12.1%	1	13	2.5%	22	77	14.5%	38	453	85.5%	3,674		5.3%	31.0%
Mon	03/31		80	350	610		15.1%	134.6%		15	79	13.0%	2	15	2.5%	17	94	15.4%	63	516	84.6%	4,190		5.8%	15.8%
Tue	04/1		75	399	685		12.3%	139.5%		5	84	12.3%	1	16	2.3%	6	100	14.6%	69	585	85.4%	4,775		5.6%	13.0%
Wed	04/2		23	392	708		3.4%	124.1%		5	89	12.6%	0	16	2.3%	5	105	14.8%	18	603	85.2%	5,378		5.1%	10.7%	160.0%
Thu	04/3		26	367	734		3.7%	100.0%		9	98	13.4%	1	17	2.3%	10	115	15.7%	16	619	84.3%	5,997		4.6%	9.8%	70.8%
Fri	04/4		27	336	761		3.7%	79.1%		1	99	13.0%	0	17	2.2%	1	116	15.2%	26	645	84.8%	6,642		4.0%	8.4%	58.6%
Sat	04/5		39	330	800		5.1%	70.2%		8	107	13.4%	3	20	2.5%	11	127	15.9%	28	673	84.1%	7,315		4.3%	9.0%	54.1%
Sun	04/6		42	312	842		5.3%	58.9%		9	116	13.8%	2	22	2.6%	11	138	16.4%	31	704	83.6%	8,019		4.2%	8.9%	52.4%
Mon	04/7		41	273	883		4.9%	44.8%		11	127	14.4%	1	23	2.6%	12	150	17.0%	29	733	83.0%	8,752		3.8%	8.8%	24.2%
Tue	04/8		45	243	928		5.1%	35.5%		11	138	14.9%	2	25	2.7%	13	163	17.6%	32	765	82.4%	9,517		3.6%	8.7%	20.3%
Wed	04/9		42	262	970		4.5%	37.0%		4	142	14.6%	2	27	2.8%	6	169	17.4%	36	801	82.6%	10,318		3.8%	8.5%	18.0%
Thu	04/10		28	264	998		2.9%	36.0%		12	154	15.4%	3	30	3.0%	15	184	18.4%	13	814	81.6%	11,132		4.1%	8.2%	17.3%
Fri	04/11		61	298	1,059		6.1%	39.2%		15	169	16.0%	2	32	3.0%	17	201	19.0%	44	858	81.0%	11,990		4.2%	7.5%	15.8%
Sat	04/12		49	308	1,108		4.6%	38.5%		46	215	19.4%	3	35	3.2%	49	250	22.6%	0	858	77.4%	12,848		4.4%	7.4%	15.8%
Sun	04/13		42	308	1,150		3.8%	36.6%		8	223	19.4%	5	40	3.5%	13	263	22.9%	29	887	77.1%	13,735		4.8%	7.5%	16.2%
Mon	04/14		40	307	1,190		3.5%	34.8%		6	229	19.2%	7	47	3.9%	13	276	23.2%	27	914	76.8%	14,649		5.3%	7.7%	18.1%
Tue	04/15		42	304	1,232		3.5%	32.8%		14	243	19.7%	9	56	4.5%	23	299	24.3%	19	933	75.7%	15,582		6.0%	8.2%	19.6%
Averages			35	258			17.7%	197.0%		9		11.0%	2		3.0%	11		14.0%	27		88.8%			9.3%	18.6%	40.1%
										Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%
Day	Date		New	Week	Total		One Day	Week		Got well			Dead			Total Gone			Now In Hospitals			Total Hosp Days		Week	2 Week	3 Week
Time			Cases				Increase			Disposition														Dead as % of prior time

[Nebullis]

I don't think the route of delivery made the difference. People who self-innoculated did so with a milder strain of smallpox, variola minor, that carried a much lower mortality rate.

[Judith Anne]

As I understand it, the connection between cowpox and immunity to smallpox was understood by some before Jenner tried it...of course I could be mistaken.

[Nebullis]

The milk maids were immune.

[Judith Anne]

Yes, due to the cowpox sores they got from milking cows with cowpox...

[backhoe]

Thanks, aristeides-- I'll add this to the mass email I'm working on now and add it to the Dark Underbelly.

I usually won't reply to a ping ( unless it requires a personal response ) to avoid clogging my "comments to me" box, but I will be paying attention.

[justshe]

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[CathyRyan]

I wish I knew.

[riri]

Portland Company thinks it can make SARS Drug

[TaxRelief]

I think everyone who cares about this should buy stock in AVI BioPharma so that they have the capital necessary to bring the anti-corona drug to market.

[Domestic Church]

Singapore had medical staff clusters that incubated around March 29 but they didn't put on the jupitor suits until March 31st...so that explains why it wasn't contained there. I don't know if they were using NG95 masks on the 29th.

[Domestic Church]

"What happens if Hong Kong's medical system collapses?"

A nightmare. I would imagine the economy there would go down the tubes too.

[Domestic Church]

"probably enough to save most victims' lives."

That's a good start. That will prevent the medical crisis overload that Hong Kong is in. I hope they get this quickly.

I still think this wasn't an accidental release. That first Doc who brought this to Hong Kong did *not* infect his family but managed to tell the hospital staff how extremely virulent this bug was.

[CathyRyan]

Thanks!

[Domestic Church]

"reduced reproduction and growth rates "

BINGO! Population control

[InShanghai]

SARS may exist in persons as an asymptomatic disease.

Asymptomatic: People could have the virus and not exhibit the symptoms. This virus could already be out there, widespread, and the people we are seeing are the ones reporting to the hospital.

And you thought you just had a head cold, little did you know it was SARS: only at that time it didn't have a name. How many people have had influenza and not reported to the hospital?

At which point should I move to a small island in the Pacific?

[flutters]

I've been following the SARS threads and I have a suggestion. I wonder if we should start a SARS daily thread (opposed to several different post) for each day. I know we have a number of threads posted daily and it's difficult to keep up with all of them. I'd be willing to start it, but I don't log in until around 11-12 o'clock (est) and it would be to late. Can anyone start it?

[Judith Anne]

A great idea, but my hours change daily...I'm working call-in at two hospitals....

[per loin]

From the NY Times:

UNITED NATIONS, April 15 ? Monkeys experimentally infected with a new coronavirus have developed an illness similar to the mysterious human respiratory disease SARS, and it is now almost certain that the coronavirus causes the disease, a World Health Organization official said here today.

article

[First Amendment]

After reading the linked article, I noticed a reference to "lung damage" similar to that suffered by human SARS patinets. I remember reading something a few days ago concerning autopsies on SARS patients, showing hemmorhage (sp?) in the lungs. Anyone remember that or know any more? Also, anyone read anything about possible permanent damage?

[EternalHope]

Should we have a daily SARS thread? Personally I think it's a great idea!

Today's thread became a defacto "SARS update" thread, and it seemed to work pretty well. I'm on the Pacific coast, so I may not be up early enough for some of you.

We all know the daily update from Per Loin is the best hard data on the web, and that's what started it off today, so maybe Per Loin can be imposed upon to do it every day?