| New Reality Jonathan Rhodes 13 April 2003 |
Hussein's Regime fell in under three weeks Civilian casualties were held to an unprecedented minimum US troops were not showered with chemical weapons and the Israelis were not hit by Scuds T he oil wells aren't ablaze The Turks aren't fighting with the Kurds, Al Qaida has not been able to mount terror attacks against the US nor her allies Arab leaders friendly to the U.S. aren't are not threatened by civil instability |
As the Grand Strategy unfolds, the balance of power in the middle east has dramatically changed.
The United States Grand Strategy in the War on Terrorism is to eliminate the fundamentalist Islamic terrorist hegemonists and worldwide terrorism - the tools and offspring of despotic state sponsors - and in the end to eliminate the seeds of discontent that spawned that terrorism. The elements of that strategy are:
That strategy is in operation as follows:
The US defeated the Taliban and al Qaida in Afghanistan. Worldwide arrests occurred. The organization was severely diminished but not destroyed. Worldwide operation against al Qaida continue. And now, with the fall of Saddam, the most blatant state sponsor of terrorism and purveyor of WMD is gone, replaced by the jubilant populace of Iraq.
Remember well the harbingers of horror who forecast disaster - they were wrong.
Hussein's Regime fell in under three weeks
Civilian casualties were held to an unprecedented minimum
US troops were not showered with chemical weapons and the Israelis were not hit by Scuds
The oil wells aren't ablaze
The Turks aren't fighting with the Kurds
Al Qaida has not been able to mount terror attacks against the US nor her allies
Arab leaders friendly to the U.S. are not threatened by civil instability
Importantly, the terrorists and state sponsors of terrorism have seen the power of the United States military - now the unparalleled military power in the middle east.
Washington is no longer impeded by the United Nations and certainly not by France, Germany or Russia despite their continued diplomatic efforts to impede US policy. The three have been lateralized. By President Bush's definition, the United Nations has become irrelevant. Without the ability to use their veto power, these three have little or no impact on the US besides effecting opinion. France has, by all accounts, joined the side of the fundamentalist Islamic hegemonists and continues to attempt to obstruct US policy even after the Iraq war has been won. Chirac can snipe from the sidelines, but without significant military or economic weapons there is actually little chance his threats can be effective. Germany is the puppet of Chirac as Schroeder sold out the US to keep his domestic power. Russia is so deeply involved with the Hussein regime that they can only put their tail between their legs and keep their heads down.
The coalition formed for the war with Iraq has every reason to grow in stature. The former eastern bloc European nations, freed from their own brand of tyranny with the fall of the Soviet Union, sided with the coalition and now look forward to their expanding world role, militarily, financially and politically, alongside the United States. Britain, Japan and Australia have shown their integrity and remain solid allies. However, they too realize that the United States is entirely militarily independent. The US now needs only political partners.
Who is left to deal with in the middle east? Scattered al Qaida cells in the badlands of the middle east, and their support in Syria and Iran.
Iran and Syria are now isolated by the United States and her allies.
Look at the map from Iran's and Syria's perspective. The US military controls Iraq to the west and Afghanistan to the east. US ally Pakistan is to the southeast, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan to the north, the Persian Gulf coalition states of Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar to the south.
Syria sees 300,000 US troops in Iraq to the east, Turkey with its US airbases to the north, coalition Jordan and Israel to the south. To their west, the Mediterranean - US Aircraft Carriers, and NATO state Greece.
Osama bin Laden's fatwas explained his attacks on the US were intended to drive the US out of the middle east. By any reckoning, he has failed miserably.
In the Islamic world, it is striking how little response there has been. Except for a few demonstrations, there has been no rising in the Arab streets. Iraq had one of the strongest militaries in the Arab world. Their complete defeat in under three weeks has given pause to the stridency of anti-American sentiment. The realization that the US actually did minimize civilian death and injury while annihilating the Iraqi military and is in fact acting as a liberating rather than an occupying force has given great pause to arguments of the US as the great Satan. The reality of Iraqi jubilation for freedom in the face of prior intransigence to their plight by their so-called Arab brethren has shocked the Arab world. Their realization is they could have been wrong.
Iran became the first to recognize the new reality in middle east .
Iran's former president, Hashemi Rafsanjani, offered yesterday to help restore diplomatic ties with the United States, breaking with hard-liners in Iran. Those relations were severed after the seizure of hostages at the American Embassy after the Islamic revolution of 1979.
Rafsanjani still occupies a powerful position in Iran as the head of the powerful Expediency Council, which advises Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader.
The official Islamic Republic News Agency quoted Rafsanjani as saying one way to resolve "the problem of Iran-U.S. relations" would be to hold a referendum on the matter, appealing to the population of Iran to exercise their democratic powers.. "The other option is to leave it to the Expediency Council," he said. Reformers in Iran have been advocating such a vote and Rafsanjani had preciously sided with the fundamentalist hard liners.
Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei does hold ultimate power in Iran and can void any electoral secular decision made in by the elected government, but the movement toward a secular democratic society in Iran is quite strong, and is now energized by the US victory over the despotic Hussein."We missed certain opportunities, or took late or wrong measures or even did not take action," Mr. Rafsanjani said in a reference to past impasses between both nations.
"Our ideology is flexible," he said. "We can choose our interest based on Islam." The New York Times
There are suggestions and concrete examples that Iran/US relations have already begun through back-door channels before and during Operation Iraqi Freedom. When Ansar-al-Islam was driven out of their camps in northeastern Iraq, escape into the Iranian mountains was officially blocked by Iran's Revolutionary Guard. Some the stragglers fled into the mountains of Iran and were reportedly picked up by Iranian forces. There are unconfirmed reports these terrorists will be turned over to Washington. There are also reports that during the Iraq war the anti-Iranian revolutionary group Mujahedin-e-Khalq was attacked by Iranian troops that killed 18 and wounded 43 of the mujahedin and destroyed their base. Last week an announcement was made by the Iran's information ministry that the mujahedin that were repentant could return to Iran. Apparently a number of them did just that - a convenient way for Iran to deal with this revolutionary problem without interfering with US efforts in Iraq and unlikely to have occurred without Iran/US cooperation.
The Iranian people and government feel no sympathy for Saddam's fall - in fact they welcome it. Their government's problem now is their own survival. If Bush wants to confront Iran there is nothing to stop him. Iran has another choice. The issue is al Qaida and nuclear weapons. If Iran will share their intelligence with the US and help shut down al Qaida operations as well as give verifiable guarantees on its nuclear weapons program, the US is likely to open the doors to diplomatic and economic ties.
This will leave Syria and Hezbollah isolated.
The US has accused Syria of harboring WMD's and members of the Iraqi regime leadership. Certainly the reports of Hussein compatriots exiled in Syria are quite valid. US Secretary of State Colin Powell warned today
"We have designated Syria for years as a state that sponsors terrorism, and we have discussed this with the Syrians on many occasions. We are concerned that materials have flowed through Syria to the Iraqi regime over the years. We are making this point clearly and in a very direct manner to the Syrians. We hope the Syrians will respond accordingly."
Mr. Powell added: "Also, we think it would be very unwise ... if suddenly Syria suddenly becomes a haven for all these people who should be brought to justice who are trying to get out of Baghdad. It seems to me that Syria would not find it in its interests ... (if) Syria would become a place of haven for people who should be subject to the justice of the Iraqi people."
Asked on NBC's "Meet the Press" if senior Saddam aides have fled to Syria, Mr. Rumsfeld said,
"Oh, there's no question but that they did. Absolutely. ... Some left and went to Syria and stayed, and some have left Iraq, gone to Syria and transited to other countries."
"The Syrian government needs to cooperate with the United States and our coalition partners," President Bush said at the White House. "It must not harbor any Ba'athist, any military officials who need to be held to account."
"We believe there are chemical weapons in Syria," President Bush said - without elaborating.
