Posted on 04/10/2003 5:19:05 PM PDT by Axion
Possible Plutonium Find Has Wide and Disturbing Implications Summary
Apr 10, 2003 - 2202 GMT
Initial reports from coalition forces at Iraq's Al Tuwaitha nuclear complex indicate the presence of weapons-grade plutonium. If this is truly the case, and tests should confirm the plutonium's presence very shortly, the finding will have disturbing ramifications for the region and American foreign policy.
Analysis
Coalition forces searching the Al Tuwaitha nuclear complex just south of Baghdad on April 10 have detected a type of radiation that could signal the presence of weapons-grade plutonium.
One of two materials is used to fuel nuclear explosions: uranium or plutonium.
The initial indications from Al Tuwaitha indicate the presence of plutonium-239. If true, this is worrying on numerous fronts. Uranium is far more abundant than plutonium and methods to separate, purify and mold weapons-grade uranium are not particularly technically advanced or expensive. Plutonium manufacture and purification, in contrast, is one of the most advanced weapon-fabrication processes. Plutonium weapons also require far less material -- as little as 5 kilograms -- and so plutonium weapons can use a wider array of lighter delivery vehicles. Unlike uranium, plutonium does not occur naturally in any form.
Using radiation detectors to determine the difference between uranium products and plutonium products without taking samples is a sketchy business, but there is one relatively clear difference. When plutonium-239 decays naturally it emits almost exclusively alpha particles, or positively charged helium nuclei. Uranium isotopes, on the other hand, emit beta particles (electrons) and gamma rays along with alpha radiation.
Alpha radiation normally cannot penetrate clothes and skin, whereas beta and gamma radiation certainly can. Initial reports from Al Tuwaitha indicate very high levels of radiation, yet there have been no reported casualties. That indicates that most of the radiation is probably not beta or gamma radiation, but alpha radiation, plutonium-239's calling card. Since the people who discovered the radiation at Al Tuwaitha have reported no health problems, the plutonium is most likely purified -- and therefore usable in a weapons program.
This has some disturbing implications.
No isotope of plutonium occurs naturally. In fact, it is normally created in only one of two ways. The first method involves bombarding a sample of uranium-238 with neutrons to make plutonium-239. In the second method, a uranium reactor creates the plutonium as a byproduct.
Unlike uranium enrichment programs required to make uranium-based nuclear weapons, plutonium enrichment and purification is an expensive and technically advanced process involving quite a bit of sophisticated equipment that supposedly is under a series of strict international controls.
If Iraq has obtained the equipment to manufacture or extract plutonium, it must either have some quite complex -- and highly restricted -- technology or a functioning nuclear reactor.
Such a confirmation would signal a colossal failure not only of the United Nations sanctions regime as relates to Iraq's weapons of mass destruction, but also of the broader global efforts to stem the spread of nuclear technology. The new fear would be that if Iraq, clearly on the to-watch list, can import nuclear materials and advanced nuclear technology, so can other nuclear wannabes.
It also means that United States will hardly want to depend upon the United Nations or the International Atomic Energy Agency for global nuclear security, for if it cannot prevent proliferation in the relatively cut-and-dried case of Iraq, it will be next to useless in cases where the subject has more international standing.
Yes indeed. If this is the case, it's not Syria, or Palestine, or any of the other third rate middle east countries we have to worry about.
"Mind boggling implicatations", if this is the case is China, Russia, France, Germany, Iran, and North Korea!
If memory serves me from my CBR training WAY back when - the significance is two-fold. (1) Smaller quantity of fuel is required, and (2) Thermo-nuclear explosion (what used to be referred to as H-bomb) results from plutonium. Much more powerful explosion - megaton range, as opposed to kiloton range of uranium explosion.
Irrelevant is the word that describes the capability of the U.N.
The sad part is that it took so long to realize this, though many have realized it for years now, and now that it's out, what are we going to do about it?
What a sham the U.N. is and what a waste of U.S. dollars.
So, you are technically correct. Stratfor's point is still well taken.
Yes...and accordinding to the UN website we just made another payment today for humanitarian needs to the tune of 146 or 147 million, ya know, give or take a million or so.
The information is only a few hours/days old. If the radiation were strong enough to produce casualties that fast, it could probably be detected by aircraft, maybe even satellites. That's about like walking into an operating nuclear reactor, or having a mass of nuclear material go supercritical in front of you (you'd know, you'd see the pretty blue flash).
That indicates that most of the radiation is probably not beta or gamma radiation, but alpha radiation,
That indicates no such thing, just that the radiation is at most only a few rads* -- thousands of times what is considered safe, but hardly instantly lethal (650 rads will kill 50% of those exposed within 30 days; a medical x-ray is measured in a few thousandths of a rad)
plutonium-239's calling card.
Also the calling card of numerous other isotopes.
Since the people who discovered the radiation at Al Tuwaitha have reported no health problems,
Yet. But see also above on dosage.
the plutonium is most likely purified -- and therefore usable in a weapons program.
That much plutonium would be quite thermally hot (as the alphas from anwhere but the surface of the plutonium get absorbed and the energy converted to heat). If there's really that much of it, it sounds like it'd be at or above critical mass and spontaneously fissioning from random neutrons.
This report sure extrapolates a lot from a lack of data. Don't buy it, wait for the test results.
(* Note for the pedants: I'm using rads, rems, roentgens, seiverts, and all those other radiation units as roughly equivalent, although I know it really depends on whether you're talking about ionizing potential, absorbed dose, biological effect, et bloody cetera.)
OK, since we actually do have people who know what they're talking about on this thread...
Hasn't SUCKFOR gotten this 100% reversed? It's easier to build the BOMB once you have the material from uranium rather than plutonium (you can build a simple "gun" for the uranium, but need a complicated implosion sphere for the plutonium) but it's actually less expensive and easier to create weapons grade plutonium with a reactor than go throug the lengthy and complicated process to chemically enrich Uranium?
My impression was that the facilities at Oak Ridge for Uranium were far more expensive and vast than the reactors at Hanford for Plutonium in the Manhattan Project.
Please correct if I'm mistaken.
I've had the same theory for many months. When otherwise quite conservative friends of mine would question the wisdom of the invasion, I've often stated your above post almost verbatim. I'll never forget Tony Blair. He's usually quite liberal, and when W began his "pre-emptive strike" rhetoric, Blair was emphaticlly against it.
Then he did a one eighty, for no obvious reason. Virtually overnight. Either he'd been told something, or shown something that alarmed him, and NOTHING would dissuade him from his alignment with Bush.
I know little about the scientific analysis, but this article was a long wind-up for the above shattering revelation. Say what?
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