Posted on 04/03/2003 10:51:07 PM PST by LdSentinal
She's making it a race. In the 2004 Democratic marathon for the U.S. Senate, Cook County Treasurer Maria Pappas has moved into a dead heat with state Comptroller Dan Hynes, according to a new poll.
But with a third of likely voters undecided and fewer than half declaring a preference for the leading contenders, the Democratic nomination is up for grabs.
This telephone survey of 800 likely voters was recently conducted by a nationally reputable polling firm for another senatorial hopeful, who asked not to be identified. The poll's margin for error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Hynes is favored by 24 percent, followed by Pappas with 21 percent, state Sen. Barack Obama with 9 percent, former Chicago Board of Education President Gery Chico and health care executive Joyce Washington, each with 5 percent, and commodities millionaire Blair Hull with 1 percent.
What is most surprising about this poll in Democratic circles is that Pappas, who is making her first run for statewide office, is in a statistical tie with Hynes, a two-term statewide officeholder.
There has long been concern in the Hynes camp that Pappas had the potential to split the vote in the Chicago area and deny him the nomination. This poll indicates that Pappas is a contender rather than a spoiler.
Even though Hynes is among his party's top vote-getters and is doing well against GOP Sen. Peter Fitzgerald in early trial heats, his vulnerabilities were exposed in the Democratic poll.
Hynes is untested in a competitive political race. It was because of the influence of his father, former Cook County assessor and longtime 19th Ward Democratic committeeman Thomas C. Hynes, that the younger Hynes got the Democratic party's endorsement in 1998 for comptroller. Dan Hynes also had the tacit support of the state GOP establishment, including gubernatorial nominee George H. Ryan, in the 1998 general election.
As a candidate for re-election last year, Hynes faced another patsy and won a meaningless landslide. He has yet to face real competition.
In contrast, Pappas is a veteran of political combat. As an independent running for an at-large slot on the Cook County Board in 1990, she defeated the Regular Democratic Organization's endorsed slate and finished ahead of such proven vote-getters as former Appellate Court Justice R. Eugene Pincham and Stanley T. Kusper, who was then the five-term Cook County clerk.
Four years later, Pappas took on the Democratic organization a second time in an unsuccessful bid to win her party's nomination for the County Board presidency. She made a credible run against party-backed John H. Stroger and Circuit Court Clerk Aurelia M. Pucinski. Without Pappas in this race, Stroger would have lost to Pucinski. If Pappas had not made this race, it is doubtful that the Democratic party would have slated her for county treasurer in 1998.
What makes Pappas such a threat to Hynes is that she isn't afraid to lose. Hynes, who likes to play it safe, won't have that option with Pappas in the race.
Another problem for Hynes is that the comptroller's office isn't a springboard to political prominence. He is the third comptroller in 20 years to run for the U.S. Senate. Democrat Roland W. Burris in 1984 and Republican Loleta Didrickson in 1998 lost their respective primaries.
Hynes is the fifth comptroller since 1978 to seek higher office. Only one prevailed--Burris in 1990 for attorney general. The harsh reality is that since the comptroller's office was created in 1970, it has become a fairly reliable ticket to oblivion.
The poll, of course, is only a benchmark and shows that Hynes and Pappas have the early advantage in name recognition. But with more than half of the likely voters undecided or expressing a preference for another candidate, a third candidate could well emerge as the nominee.
According to the poll, the Democratic race could become even more volatile as voters learn more about the other candidates. After the likely voters interviewed for the poll were presented with brief descriptions of the hopefuls, the race became even more confused.
In a second vote, Hynes was favored by 20 percent, followed by Obama with 18 percent, Pappas with 14 percent, Washington with 12 percent, Hull with 10 percent, Chico with 8 percent, and 17 percent still undecided.
The poll also indicated that less than 20 percent of Democratic primary voters are "absolutely certain" about their choice.
Obama, who has an impressive legislative record and strong support from the black community, surged when voters were told about his background.
But so did Hull, who built one of the nation's largest independent investment firms and is the only military veteran in the field.
Washington, who ran for lieutenant governor last year, clearly has the potential to be a wild card in this race.
Chico, who is sly and able, is respected by political insiders, but as a first-time candidate hasn't caught on with the voting public.
Yes.
Looks like a knock-em-down, drag-em-out primary for the democrats. Hynes, Pappas, Obama, and Hull as strong candidates, once Hull starts advertising.
I mean, "ping".
The other thing is that I hear Joyce Washington is running for the U.S. Senate now. She's basically a Carol Mostly-Fraud clone without the corruption baggage (both are kooky liberal black woman from Chicago woefully unqualified for a Senate seat) Would this cause the swing voters to reject her, or would it just motivate the 'RAT party base of ultra-liberals and "minorities" to go out and vote? I can't tell at this point.
Then there's Blair Hull, an zillionaire Dem fundraiser and egomanic. The ironic thing is that his idiot supporters like Steve Neal accuse Fitz of "buying" his senate seat in 1998, yet they turn around and promote Hull's self-financed campaign. At least Fitz held elective office PRIOR to his Senate race, more than I can say for empty suit Hull. If he's nominated, it could be the most expensive race in Illinois ever-- both candidates would spend zillions of their own money trying to get the edge over their opponent.
Who's the weakest Dem? Hynes is probably the strongest, but we want to vote in the 'RAT primary for the biggest loser we can find. With both Bush and Fitz likely to face only token opposition in the primary, it's time for Illinois Republicans to "cross over" en masse to the 'RAT primary and get revenge for the way they screwed with OUR primaries in the past.
Sharpton for Pres is a given. IL Freepers, which 'RAT Senate candidate deserves the dishonor?
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