Posted on 04/02/2003 7:55:35 PM PST by InShanghai
New Disease Scary, but Not as Bad as Flu -- Yet
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - It jumped from ducks to farmers in the densely populated southern provinces of China, spreading via jet to the whole world within a year and killing half a million people. SARS? No -- just ordinary influenza.
|
|
As world health officials scramble to identify and contain the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, they are drawing constant parallels with flu, a much more familiar -- and so far deadlier -- foe.
SARS has killed an estimated 78 people and made 2,151 ill, the World Health Organization (news - web sites) said in its latest update.
In contrast, influenza kills anywhere between 250,000 and 500,000 people every year around the world. In the United States, with a vaccine and modern medical care widely available, flu kills at least 36,000 people a year.
New strains regularly pop up, with varying degrees of lethality.
The "Spanish flu" pandemic of 1918 killed between 40 million and 50 million worldwide, most of them young, healthy adults. The "Asian flu" and "Hong Kong flu" pandemics of 1956-1957 and 1967-1968 killed a combined 4.5 million people.
The SARS outbreak is tiny in comparison, said Dr. Richard Duma, head of infectious diseases at the Halifax Medical Center in Daytona, Florida, and a member of the board of the National Foundation for Infectious Disease. "I think it is frightening a lot of people but I don't think it will produce the mortality that influenza will produce," Duma said.
In fact, when SARS cases were first reported in Guangdong early this year, experts assumed it was another outbreak of a deadly strain of influenza known as H5N1.
BIRD SLAUGHTER STEMMED OUTBREAK
In 1997, Hong Kong authorities slaughtered more than a million chickens and ducks to stem the epidemic of "bird flu" that came to be known by its genetic nickname of H5N1. It killed six people and infected 18.
Richard Webby, an influenza virus expert at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, noted that three members of a Hong Kong family who visited Fujian Province in southern China became infected with H5N1 early this year and two of them died.
They were the first known human cases since 1997.
U.S. and WHO experts knew of a larger outbreak of respiratory disease in China's Guangdong province at the time and assumed it was more H5N1, which alarmed them.
The new outbreak has since been identified as SARS, which may be caused by a different virus, known as a coronavirus.
But the parallels with influenza are obvious. Both are respiratory diseases, both are highly infectious and both, apparently, have jumped from animals to people.
And both were born in China. Influenza begins as an infection of birds, one that does not make its avian hosts ill. A slight mutation allows it to move into people, sometimes via pigs as an intermediate host.
Once a person recovers from influenza, he or she has immunity to that strain. But every year a new strain jumps from the flocks of chickens, ducks and geese raised in China, forcing vaccine makers to come up with a new formula.
Something similar may have happened with SARS, said Mike Osterholm, an infectious disease expert at the University of Minnesota who has for years been warning about such emerging infections.
"You have the world's largest population in China. You have the world's largest population of pigs in China, the world's largest population of aquatic birds. You have close contacts and you have a lot of different species where these agents are floating around, and you are going to see a jump from animals to people," Osterholm said in a telephone interview.
Only SARS looks worse than ordinary flu. It kills between 3.5 percent and 4 percent of known victims -- a rate higher than the 1918 influenza epidemic, the worst epidemic in recorded history, in which 3 percent of patients died.
In an average year, influenza kills fewer than 1 percent of patients, experts said.
"Four percent mortality -- that is a lot of people if you multiply it by a few million," Webby said.
I thought the chart you had covered more than just HK. Me memory must be failing! LOL!
Ignoring China Mainland:
March 29th: 816
April 1st: 998
April 2nd: 1033
Ignoring China and Hong Kong:
March 29th: 286
April 1: 313
April 2: 325
" NORMALLY ? As in just an everyday, common variety flu ? That's besides the point ! The Spanish, Asian, and Hong Kong flus KILLED people who did NOT Have " weakened immune systems ". That's a FACT ; not some pulled out of thin air supposition. Look it up. Oh, and BTW, I actually am a survivor of the Asian Flu. It was ghastly.
You've now backtracked THREE times. Perhaps the better part of valor, would be for you ( and everyone else, who aren't really medical/ historical experts ) to just keep mum. :-)
I'm not the one comparing the two ; the article did that. It's also factual, that the Spanish, ASian, and Hong Kong flu pandemics were VERY serious; far MORE serious and also TRUE pandemics ; which SARS isn't.
YET!!! Cripes you people! It isn't the absolute count...it's the death rate. At 4%....SARS is worse than even the horrible 1918 flu! We are in the early days of this mess. I hope it dies out....but if it does become a "true" pandemic....it will be one of the worse in history. Why is that so hard to understand?
He is wrong. SARS and the war will be used as an excuse for the coming world depression. It's called outsourcing responsibility.....or scapegoating. The real causes are corrupt politicians, corporate leaders, and bankers. Throw in abundant stupidity and greed....and you have the recipe for what is coming.
Yes, I know, facts don't matter to you guys; you just enjoy wqorrying yourself and as many others as you can gull, into mass hysteria. ; ^ )
My biggest question for this whole outbreak is: Why couldn't they pick a better name for the disease? Hoof and mouth disease, Legionaire's disease, Whooping Cough, Chicken Pox, and SARS... Maybe something like Metropole pneumonia. Anyone have other suggestions?
How about: CHINESE DUCK ( CHICKEN ? ) COUGH ? LOL
So true. The data everyone is using is the reported number of cases. There are more than likely people who have had it that have not run to the hospital for a cough or a runny nose(which only happens in socialized medicine countries). If Hillary gets what she wants then this is what will happen in the US.
Other suggestions for the virus name:
If the world medical community understands where and how these diseases start, wouldn't it be prudent and cheaper to clean up the SOURCE? If all the money spent on the flu every year were to be expended in cleaning up this farming mess, wouldn't it be better for all people in the long run?
The source of this virus has not yet been found. It's now being passed between people, so going after the source would probably have little effect today. Finding the source and educating the people who work with the livestock (assuming it is from an animal) will help curb future outbreaks.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.