Saddam's Greater Game (Hyppothesis that he “plans” to survive through 3 phases)

Wasington Post ^ | Apr 2, 2003 | Gary Anderson

[Diddley]

Many observers of the war with Iraq are focused on the looming battle for Baghdad in anticipation that it will be the culminating event of the conflict, and it may in the end be so from an American perspective. But in the view of the Iraqi leadership, it may be only the end of a first stage in a greater Iraqi plan.
. . . . .
Phase I assumes eventual defeat in a conventional war. If defeat is inevitable, he must make the most of it. Anwar Sadat of Egypt reclaimed a measure of Arab pride in 1973 in a war that, while lost tactically and operationally, was fought with enough skill to regain an Arab sense of honor and pride lost in 1967. The next precept is to make the conventional phase last as long as possible and be as bloody as possible for the American-British coalition.
The final sub-phase will be to attempt to turn Baghdad into an Arab Alamo and make "Remember Baghdad" a battle cry, not just for future generations but also for the rest of this war. At this point Hussein would go into hiding or exile, portraying himself as having led a glorious struggle against imperialism and vowing to continue. If he uses chemical weapons, I am wrong. There will be no sanctuary.

The second phase would be a protracted guerrilla war against the "occupation," which the American-British coalition bills as liberation. It is now obvious that the Baath Party has seeded the urban and semi-urban population centers of the country with cadres designed to lead such a guerrilla movement; this is not a last-minute act of desperation or an afterthought. Americans have overrun facilities that have been in place for some time. The war would be waged as an attritional struggle against the occupying forces and any Iraqi interim government.
Attempts at free elections would be subverted and portrayed as a sham. The strategic objective of this phase would be to have the Americans and British tire of the effort and turn it over to the United Nations.

Phase III would then be to amass enough semi-conventional power to overwhelm the U.N. and interim government mechanisms. In other words, the concept would be to stage a combination of "Black Hawk Down" and the 1975 North Vietnamese offensive that crushed South Vietnam.
A success here would transform Hussein from a regional pariah into a darling of the Arab world. This is a high-risk strategy, but Saddam Hussein is a high-risk kind of guy.
. . . . .

[Diddley]

The author states, "My reason for writing this is not to postulate a gloom-and-doom scenario but to suggest that we be prepared to react to an enemy game plan that may be different from our own."

I assume this won't happen, because "he's dead".

[Spruce]

[jerrymdss]

Someone has too much time on their hands...Title should be "Saddams Dream".

[BushCountry]

Hyperbole! Doom and Gloomers! Before the war all the oil fields would be afire, thousands upons thousands of dead Americans, etc... More BS from people who can not accept a conservative as president, it is their last dying gasp as they watch in horror what a man of honor can do.

[Mister Magoo]

Phase IV: Saddam's Russian doctor extracts Saddam's DNA from his dead, lifeless corpse. Saddam's Russian doctor takes said DNA to the jungles of Brazil. After successfully cloning 70 young Saddams, the Fedayeen Saddam place the young clones with the families of Palestinian suicide bombers to foster the right environment. All these young Saddams arise through puberty to command a new Iraq and to vainquish the imperialist West.

[Diddley]

ROFL

[colorado tanker]

How stupid. Dictators used to living in multiple palaces who are kept in power by secret police don't go to ground to fight a guerilla war. They either die or go into exile at a not quite so nice palace.

Has this "analyst" noticed that no one in Southern Iraq is crying any tears over Saddam; indeed many people are risking death to get away from his reamaining henchmen?

[Diddley]

[3]- Title should be "Saddams Dream". .

Yup.

[Diddley]

Well said.

[Diddley]

Shudder!

[uncbob]

The second phase would be a protracted guerrilla war against the "occupation,"

And just where and how is Saddam going to lead this war

[Diddley]

[7]- indeed many people are risking death to get away from his reamaining henchmen? .

And it’s a beautiful sight

[Poohbah]

He's not dead...he's pining for the fjords.

[Joe Bonforte]

I respect the guy for thinking this through from Saddam's viewpoint. That doesn't mean he really thinks Saddam can do it, unless we seriously screw up. (Assuming Saddam is alive, of course, which I doubt. I think he's Purina Worm Chow.)

Remember that Saddam is a megalomaniac. His view of the world is not necessarily very close to reality. He may very well have such a plan, though his chances of carrying it out against determined American opposition are approximately zero.

[randog]

This article makes some monumental leaps of faith. First, the author assumes that Saddam is alive, and if he is alive and survives the war will live in sweet luxurious exile from whence he can plan his return to the world stage. Secondly, he assumes that the Fedayeen and other goons will roam the countryside with impunity because the citizens love to be used as suicide bombers and human shields. No, the citizens would never turn on Saddam's goons.

This article is just one of many to come. Now that the left has been proven to be grossly wrong (again), they're eagerly starting in on their next bunch of sour grapes.

[Diddley]

[11]- And just where and how is Saddam going to lead this war .

In his dreams.

[Nick Danger]

If we haven't already, we will soon enough discover one or more entrances into the network of tunnels and bunkers where Saddam thinks he's going to ride out whatever is happening above. And that's if he isn't already dead.

[johniegrad]

+

[Poohbah]

Nasty person that I am...

My Baghdad Tunnel Buster Project

OK, here's how it works.

Find where the tunnel network passes under the Tigris River.

Drop an GBU-28 on the spot. Flood the tunnel.

Drop in a SEAL team.

Drop in a great big supply of calcium carbide.

SEAL team infiltrates tunnel complex, opens calcium carbide packages, and places a timed incendiary.

Them blowed up good.

Them blowed up REAL good.