Saddam's Greater Game (Hyppothesis that he “plans” to survive through 3 phases)

Wasington Post ^ | Apr 2, 2003 | Gary Anderson

[Diddley]

Many observers of the war with Iraq are focused on the looming battle for Baghdad in anticipation that it will be the culminating event of the conflict, and it may in the end be so from an American perspective. But in the view of the Iraqi leadership, it may be only the end of a first stage in a greater Iraqi plan.
. . . . .
Phase I assumes eventual defeat in a conventional war. If defeat is inevitable, he must make the most of it. Anwar Sadat of Egypt reclaimed a measure of Arab pride in 1973 in a war that, while lost tactically and operationally, was fought with enough skill to regain an Arab sense of honor and pride lost in 1967. The next precept is to make the conventional phase last as long as possible and be as bloody as possible for the American-British coalition.
The final sub-phase will be to attempt to turn Baghdad into an Arab Alamo and make "Remember Baghdad" a battle cry, not just for future generations but also for the rest of this war. At this point Hussein would go into hiding or exile, portraying himself as having led a glorious struggle against imperialism and vowing to continue. If he uses chemical weapons, I am wrong. There will be no sanctuary.

The second phase would be a protracted guerrilla war against the "occupation," which the American-British coalition bills as liberation. It is now obvious that the Baath Party has seeded the urban and semi-urban population centers of the country with cadres designed to lead such a guerrilla movement; this is not a last-minute act of desperation or an afterthought. Americans have overrun facilities that have been in place for some time. The war would be waged as an attritional struggle against the occupying forces and any Iraqi interim government.
Attempts at free elections would be subverted and portrayed as a sham. The strategic objective of this phase would be to have the Americans and British tire of the effort and turn it over to the United Nations.

Phase III would then be to amass enough semi-conventional power to overwhelm the U.N. and interim government mechanisms. In other words, the concept would be to stage a combination of "Black Hawk Down" and the 1975 North Vietnamese offensive that crushed South Vietnam.
A success here would transform Hussein from a regional pariah into a darling of the Arab world. This is a high-risk strategy, but Saddam Hussein is a high-risk kind of guy.
. . . . .

[DWPittelli]

Secondly, he assumes that the Fedayeen and other goons will roam the countryside with impunity because the citizens love to be used as suicide bombers and human shields.

I agree with you that the author's nightmare scenario is unlikely for this reason. The one risk is if liberal internationalists lead the U.S. (or U.N.) to prevent the coming, and much needed, bloodbath of Baathist scum.

[m1911]

Phase III would then be to amass enough semi-conventional power to overwhelm the U.N. and interim government mechanisms.

Thereby alienating the only friends outside Iraq they will really have.

[Bob Mc]

Phase V:

Saddam has himself cryogenically frozen and launched into space aboard a especially equipped scud. He remains frozen in space for 30 years and comes back in the year 2033 to restart his evil regime.

A time machine will be used to go back in time to 2003 to retrieve GW Bush to save the year 2033 from certain disaster.

I think I've heard it something like that.