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Analysis: Republican Guard's last stand
UPI ^ | 4/1/03 | Martin Walker

Posted on 04/01/2003 9:40:01 AM PST by browardchad

KUWAIT CITY, April 1 (UPI) -- The war entered its decisive phase Tuesday as midday temperatures in central Iraq soared toward 100 degrees and U.S. forces advanced into Iraq's so-called Red Zone around Baghdad, where local commanders may have authority to use chemical weapons, coalition leaders say.

The best of Iraq's conventional forces, five Republican Guard divisions, have now been identified gathering south of Baghdad for what looks to be the decisive battle of the war. Coalition military intelligence sources add that a sixth RG Division, the al-Adnan, is also reported moving south from Saddam Hussein's hometown of Tikrit to join them.

They are moving into a killing ground, the flood plain of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers south of Baghdad. It is a relatively confined battlefield where allied warplanes and combat helicopters now hover like predatory hawks to swoop on any target that shows itself. The clear weather conditions, and the coming of the heat of a desert summer, suggest that coalition commanders are pressing on to Baghdad without waiting for the expected reinforcement of the U.S. 4th Infantry Division.

Although no Iraqi chemical or biological weapons have yet been deployed or found, chemical alert and response units were close behind the forward U.S. troops Tuesday just in case. Large numbers of Iraqi gas masks and other protective gear have been found by advancing coalition forces, suggesting that Iraqi units are ready for chemical warfare.

The airstrikes against the dug-in RG units were backed up by the artillery from the U.S. 3rd Division, their shells now able range up to 10 miles from Baghdad itself. Units of the 3rd Division hooked around the key town of Karbala and established firing positions and pushed forward observation posts to bring direct fire only Iraqi defensive positions.

The 5 RG divisions are anchored on the Medina armored division, the strongest of all, which began the war with 20,000 troops and 270 of Iraq's most advanced Soviet-built T-72 tanks. They are outmatched by the U.S. M1-A1 Abrams tanks, which can pick them off at a distance while remaining out of rage of the T-72 guns -- if the visibility is clear enough.

Coalition spokesmen said Tuesday they believed the Medina division had lost up to a third of its force, and was reduced to filling its ranks with makeshift recruits rounded up from nearby villages. The remnants of another RG battalion surrendered to U.S. troops Tuesday, after days of battering from the air.

Two of the other RG divisions south of Baghdad, the Hamurabi and the Al-Nida, are armored units, but equipped with 1960s vintage T-62 tanks, and thought to number not much more than 10,000 troops each. The Baghdad mechanized infantry division, already worn down by a series of defensive battles against advancing U.S. Marines in the south, has been reinforced by the Nebuchadnezzar RG division which was brought down from Tikrit over the last week.

The objective of coalition commanders is to destroy these RG divisions where they stand, rather than let them fall back into Baghdad to stiffen the city's defenses. Once inside the city, where they can take cover from coalition air power, they could be a much more difficult to tackle than they are now on the relatively open ground south of Baghdad.

Coalition military sources said the advances upon Baghdad, and first ground war clashes with the Republican Guard, decisively refuted the media suggestions over the weekend of a pause in operations. They dismissed suggestions of a "race for Baghdad" between the two prongs of the U.S. advance, the Marines from the south and the 3rd Infantry Division from the southwest, noting one of the key breakthroughs to the town of Hindiya was achieved by the 101st Airborne.

"The 101st sent small reconnaissance teams by helicopter deep into Iraqi lines, where they spotted and targeted Iraqi positions and then called in artillery and air strikes," a military source in Kuwait told United Press International. "So when the main assault went in, the Iraqis had very little left to stop it."

The capture Monday of the bridge over the Euphrates at Hindiya means that the two advancing U.S. columns can now communicate directly, and coalition commanders can use it to seize tactical opportunities and push reinforcements from one front to the other.

Meanwhile in southern Iraq, British troops took the final bridge around Basra, virtually sealing off the city except for a small land route up the eastern bank of the Tigris. The British are still deliberately holding back from a full-scale assault on the city, but nibbling at its edges and raiding and bombing the buildings from which Saddam Hussein's loyalists try to maintain their grip on the city.

British Marines stepped up their patrols around Basra after two Iraqi Seersucker missiles, Russian-based projectiles modified from anti-ship missiles, were fired overnight. One landed close to the British prisoner of war camp outside Umm Qasr, where over 3,000 Iraqi prisoners are held. The other stuck close to a site previously occupied by the headquarters of the Royal Marine Commandos.

A missile related to the Seersucker, the Silkworm, hit a Kuwait City shopping mall over the weekend. No casualties were reported from the explosion, which occurred in the early hours of Sunday morning.



TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: baghdad; baghdaddefense; iraq; iraqifreedom; laststand; republicanguard; war
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To: Mark17
>>I wonder how they are getting there, without being blasted from the air?<<

We don't want them blasted until they are in the killing zone with their rear exposed.

41 posted on 04/01/2003 11:09:57 AM PST by Jim Noble
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To: BlueLancer
REFEREE: "General Custer calls "heads" ... it's "tails". Sitting Bull, you win the toss."
(Pause.)
REFEREE:"General Custer, Sitting Bull says that you and your men have to wait at the bottom of the hill while he and all of the Indians in the world ride right down on you."

Classic Cosby! Heh heh...

"...And the British lose the toss... That means the Americans get to shoot from behind the trees and rocks and everywhere, and the British have to wear red coats, and march in a straight line!"

42 posted on 04/01/2003 11:18:38 AM PST by FierceDraka (Semper Fi, Do or Die, Gung Ho Gung Ho!)
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To: Richard Axtell
Sorry; this was meant to be a reply, not A FReepmail to you:
=============================

So far, all the maps I have seen on television and online, show the 82nd Airborne still largely in Kuwait. What if they are secretly in the Western Desert of Iraq, and will be part of the northern force that will come down and drive through the weakened Iraqi defenses, to take Baghdad while the bulk of the RG divisions have deployed to the south, in repsonse to the 101, and the Marines? This may be another "Hail Mary" kind of operation, that we will only fully perceive after the fact?

Ding! Ding! Ding!

We have a winner.....

The trap has already snapped shut, but the prey doesn't even know it.

The mere fact that RG forces from Tikrit were permitted to reinforce the Southern front RG's without our airpower annihilating them is proof that we WANTED them to move those forces South. The most obvious reason is a "hidden" force that will appear out of nowhere to isolate the RG from being able to retreat to Baghdad, which would be threatened on it's flank/rear by a RG force in Tikrit.

They took the bait.... their fate is sealed.

Game, set, and match.

43 posted on 04/01/2003 11:19:47 AM PST by longshadow
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To: Mark17
"Nebuchadnezzar RG division which was brought down from Tikrit over the last week"

It is amazing how the media can be so wrong. I believe we captured some troops who claim to belong to units that were at one point defending Tikrit, and some how that gets translated to an entire division has moved south. CENTCOM has said that Iraq has made not one militarily coherent move yet.
44 posted on 04/01/2003 11:22:48 AM PST by ironman
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To: browardchad
Amazing. All of this without Spooky, Spectre, Daisy Cutter, and MOAB coming out to play.

45 posted on 04/01/2003 11:26:59 AM PST by Citizen of the Savage Nation
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To: Jim Noble
We don't want them blasted until they are in the killing zone with their rear exposed.

Interesting point. I guess that is why I defer to the Generals on strategy. I was USAF for 20 years, but I had no clue about things like this. I have heard it said that we want to pin them down and just bombard the killing zone mercilessly.

46 posted on 04/01/2003 11:28:27 AM PST by Mark17
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To: colorado tanker
Looks like the Iraqis left the back door open just as the Big Red One is landing in the north. Oops.

Say what? Got a link? I've been wondering when the haymaker was going to show up.

47 posted on 04/01/2003 11:29:12 AM PST by jwalsh07
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To: BlueLancer
REFEREE:

"General Cornwallis of the British, this is General Washington of the Continental Army."

"General Washington of the Continental Army, this is General Cornwallis of the British."

"If you'd shake hands, gentlemen."

"O.K., British call the toss."

"British called heads, it is tails."

"General Washington, what are you gonna do?"

"General Washington says his troops will dress however they wish, in any color, in buckskins and coonskin caps, and hide behind the rocks and trees and shoot out at random."

"British, you will all wear bright red, all shoot at the same time, and march forward in a straight line."

48 posted on 04/01/2003 11:38:42 AM PST by Liberal Classic (Quemadmoeum gladis nemeinum occidit, occidentis telum est.)
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To: jwalsh07
There was a post earlier today about C-17's landing on the airstrip in the north the 173rd seized and now I can't find it. Dang, I hate it when that happens. The Agonist weblog sitmap has the 63rd Armor of the 1st ID up there. http://agonist.org/annex/sitmap
49 posted on 04/01/2003 11:41:23 AM PST by colorado tanker
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To: colorado tanker
Cargo planes swarm north
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/881612/posts
50 posted on 04/01/2003 11:46:48 AM PST by ironman
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To: ironman
Thank you!
51 posted on 04/01/2003 11:48:54 AM PST by colorado tanker
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To: Richard Axtell
There's only on brigade of the 82nd in the theatre, and per one of their embedded reporters, they're being used to secure the supply lines in the south. Everybody keeps talking about a surprise from the West, but as near as I can tell, all the troops are accounted for....it's not hard to keep track of them with only 10 Army divisions and 3 Marine divisions. The land forces in-country are almost all in the south.
52 posted on 04/01/2003 12:25:41 PM PST by kms61
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To: ironman
CENTCOM has said that Iraq has made not one militarily coherent move yet.

Yes, but couldn't that mean that they've made incoherent ones? If their intel is compromised, and they believe there's no other significant threat than that in the South, anything's possible.

OTOH, I would think Tikrit would be their last stand...but who knows how they think?

53 posted on 04/01/2003 12:39:07 PM PST by browardchad
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To: BlueLancer
Bill Cosby, right? I like the one about the redcoats and patriots...
54 posted on 04/01/2003 12:46:22 PM PST by carton253 (God Bless President Bush, the USA, and the troops who are moving to protect freedom)
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To: wideawake
The real "shock and awe" may be about to begin. Destruction of these divisions will be courtesy of B52 carpet bombing, AC130's, Daisy Cutters and (perhaps) Moab. I'm glad to read that they intend to try and cut them off from retreat back into Baghdad. If they are in fact hanging out to dry south of the city, it's one more piece of evidence that the head was cut from this beast twelve days ago.
55 posted on 04/01/2003 1:07:22 PM PST by katana
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To: carton253
"Bill Cosby, right?"

Riiiggghhht.
(From "Bill Cosby is a Very Funny Fellow ... Riiigghhht".)

My personal favorite is "Noah" ...
God:"I want you to build an Ark."
Noah: "Who is this really ...?"
"

56 posted on 04/01/2003 5:18:12 PM PST by BlueLancer (Der Elite Møøsenspåånkængruppen ØberKømmååndø (EMØØK))
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To: Richard Axtell
This may be another "Hail Mary" kind of operation, that we will only fully perceive after the fact?

I was thinking the same thing. It sounds like Iraq is leaving the northern approach open. IF we have the forces to take advantage of it.

57 posted on 04/01/2003 5:23:58 PM PST by Vinnie
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To: BlueLancer
When I was younger, I knew "Little Tiny Hairs" by heart. And, even today, I know what to do when I'm sliding on the ice. That comes from $75 Car...

"When sliding, turn in the direction you are sliding. To me, that was like leaning into a left hook. So, I turned the wheel in the opposite direction. I was going down the highway sideways."

I also liked Flip Wilson's "Cowboys and Colored People", especially his skit on Christopher Columbus.

58 posted on 04/02/2003 4:50:27 AM PST by carton253 (God Bless President Bush, the USA, and the troops who are moving to protect freedom)
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To: browardchad
I hear on Imus that CENTCOM is claiming that the Baghdad Division of the Republican Guards has been "destroyed" near Al-Kut.
59 posted on 04/02/2003 4:57:14 AM PST by aristeides
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To: kms61
I concur with your post. The 82nd Brigade is not in the west. Who is there is unknown. Big Red 1? No mention of them. II MEF? perhaps.
60 posted on 04/02/2003 5:01:48 AM PST by bert (Don't Panic !)
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