Posted on 03/18/2003 12:06:06 PM PST by LdSentinal
ALLAHASSEE - As Sen. Bob Graham heads for the hustings of presidential politics, Florida Democrats are obsessing over one question: Will Graham try to keep his U.S. Senate seat if his White House bid sputters next year?
Graham's repeated refusal to entertain that question -- he jokingly raps querying reporters as ''pessimists'' -- is putting party strategists and would-be successors in an awkward position as they straddle the line between building their own campaigns and showing proper deference to a political icon.
The issue is so sensitive that few are willing to openly acknowledge the tension, fearful they would alienate Graham or, worse yet, his loyal fans.
Others perform a verbal tiptoe when the question arises and send signals so as not to offend the senior senator.
''He's more than entitled to take his time and decide,'' said U.S. Rep. Peter Deutsch, D-Pembroke Pines, who is rapidly stashing away millions of dollars in the hopes that Graham will be leaving the Senate. ``I've expressed to him through third parties that I would not open a Senate account unless it were OK with him.''
But some party operatives and others are more blunt, saying the uncertainty is a matter of great consternation in the early battle among a growing list of contenders for legitimacy and money.
''Every month that goes by means you have less ability to raise money and do the things you need to do,'' said state Sen. Walter ''Skip'' Campbell, D-Coral Springs, a possible U.S. Senate candidate who would have to resign his seat in order to run. ``Half of the money will be dried up by [Graham's indecision] and the other half will give donations of $500 instead of $2,000.''
DELAYING CALLS
Campbell, like some other Democrats, said he will delay calling dozens of potential donors and political leaders across the state to build a campaign until he hears Graham speak the words himself that he would not run for reelection.
Graham, the hugely popular former governor and three-term senator, is planning a formal announcement next month of his presidential campaign on the steps of the Old Capitol in Tallahassee.
If Graham finds success in a series of early primaries next year in states such as New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan and even Florida, political experts expect him to pursue the nomination all the way to the party convention in the summer of 2004.
But if Graham, who is already far behind other presidential candidates in fundraising and organization, should falter, he would have until the state filing deadline of May 7, 2004, to reenter the race for the Senate.
The pressure from Senate Democratic leaders -- who do not relish spending critical campaign funds on a competitive race in Florida -- on Graham to seek reelection would be intense.
But Graham and Florida Democrats would face a quandary if the senator would still hope to be considered as a vice presidential contender.
Running mates are typically not selected until well past the May filing deadline in Florida, and Florida state law -- unlike in Sen. Joseph Lieberman's home state of Connecticut -- would not permit Graham to run simultaneously for Senate and vice president.
Despite repeated attempts in recent months to pin him down, Graham has declined to answer the question.
He said Friday that he has not considered what happens ''if the unexpected occurs'' in his presidential campaign, ``that I'm not elected.''
''I will face that pessimistic prospect at a later time,'' Graham said.
So, at least five Senate prospects in Florida are forced to wait for a man they all consider a mentor.
Deutsch has already raised more than $2.5 million, ostensibly for his congressional reelection, but is opening a Senate account as well.
Miami-Dade County Mayor Alex Penelas plans to open a campaign account early next month, while U.S. Reps. Alcee Hastings of Miramar and Allen Boyd of the Panhandle have said they might run if Graham does not.
Former Bank of America executive Alex Sink, wife of 2002 gubernatorial candidate Bill McBride, is also said to be eyeing a Senate bid, sources said. She did not return phone calls for comment.
Sink, like Campbell, would bring personal wealth that could help make up for a late start. All the Democrats would likely halt their campaigns if Graham reenters the race.
But strategists worry that Graham's desire to play it safe gives the Republicans a clear path to campaign in Florida while Graham performs patented ''workdays'' in Iowa.
Matters are further complicated for candidates who would get a late start because of new campaign finance laws that ban unrestricted ''soft money,'' making it harder for Senate candidates to raise money quickly.
Fort Lauderdale attorney Mitchell Berger, a leading Democratic fundraiser who is national finance chairman for Lieberman's presidential campaign, said Graham's indecision ``will naturally impact the ability of other campaigns to gain momentum financially and politically.''
Two Republicans, Rep. Mark Foley of West Palm Beach and former Orlando-area Rep. Bill McCollum, are already touting themselves for the Senate while Housing Secretary Mel MartÃnez is considering a bid.
Republicans are already trying to milk the advantage.
MartÃnez, the former elected chairman of Orange County, issued an uncharacteristic attack last week on Graham, saying that the senator's vote against judicial nominee Miguel Estrada was ``not in keeping with his long tradition of being supportive of the interests of Hispanics.''
GOP partisans charged that Graham's vote, which helped prevent the GOP from ending a Democratic filibuster in the Senate, showed he was more interested in pleasing interest groups with sway in his party's presidential primaries than Hispanic Republicans in Florida that have backed Graham.
''All of this becomes more problematic the longer this goes on,'' one Democratic operative said of the vacuum in the Senate race. ``The Democrats need to be out there raising money [and] defining the issues of the race before the Republicans do.''
BEYOND SENATE RACE
Graham's situation also carries repercussions beyond the Senate race, unnerving politicians eyeing promotions to Congress, the state Legislature and even city councils.
Barbara Herrera-Hill, a commissioner in the Broward County city of Weston, for example, just opened a campaign account for the seat now held by state Rep. Nan Rich.
Rich is expected to run for the state Senate seat now held by Sen. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Weston, who opened a campaign account Friday to run for the congressional seat held by Deutsch.
All would be for naught if Graham steps back into the Senate race and Deutsch keeps his House seat.
''My candidacy for this seat is contingent on the Bob Graham dominoes falling,'' Herrera-Hill said.
Excellent. We've already had impeached men in the House and White House in the last few years. Why not complete the trifecta?!?
Eeeesh--for a moment there I thought we had something earth-shattering like he had changed the colors of his obsessive-compulsive diaries.
Last I heard, they were color-coded by seasons of the year -- red for summer, yellow for fall, blue for winter and green for spring.
:o)
Yes, but the deadline isn't until most or all of the key primary races are over, so Graham benefits himself by waiting. He doesn't help the party at all, however, should he pull a surprise and win the Presidential nomination.
And Dasshole already announced he's not running for Prez. Just as well, because if he had any prayer at all he torpedoed it with his most recent attack on President Bush.
Pretty much. As I understand it, the deadline effectively means he can wait and see if he's got a good shot at the nomination. If yes, he resigns his seat and probably screws over his party. If no, he takes all his money and puts it toward his re-election campaign.
We need to think GOP for 2004 and support all of them, even if they're not in our district to hold the House and increase our margin in the Senate so we can stop all the foolishness.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.