Posted on 02/26/2003 3:46:02 PM PST by ArcLight
If the size of the Feb. 15-16 global antiwar demonstrations greatly exceeded the expectations of the organizers, their timing was also important. They closely followed the report from Hans Blix, the chief UN weapons inspector in Iraq, to the UN Security Council that was clearly far too soft for the Bush administration. One evident implication of Blix's tone and content was that inspections should continue. Indeed, a significant part of his speech was devoted to detailing the impressive inspection process that has been built up in only 11 weeks, as well as the substantial expansion in UNMOVIC's activities that is currently under way.
This combination of popular discontent, Security Council discussion, and the concurrent splits in NATO have combined to refocus intense attention on the political process, leading to a central assumption that the risk of war is primarily dependent on what happens at the United Nations.
This may be missing a key element. While so much emphasis is on the UN and attitudes in western capitals, what is actually happening on the ground may be the real determining factor of what happens next. In this respect, the pivotal reality at present is that the Pentagon is simply not yet ready for war against Iraq.
(Excerpt) Read more at alternet.org ...
Paul Rogers is professor of peace studies at Bradford University and is openDemocracy's international security correspondent. The second edition of his book "Losing Control" has just been published by Pluto Press.
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