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Posted on 02/26/2003 11:33:13 AM PST by Willie Green
For education and discussion only. Not for commercial use.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Pentagon planners believe the cost of a war with Iraq could balloon to $95 billion or higher, eclipsing earlier estimates, administration and congressional sources said on Wednesday.
The White House cautioned that it was impossible to put a dollar-figure on a war and military occupation because no-one knows how long it would last and what measures Iraqi President Saddam Hussein would take to destroy the country's critical infrastructure, including oil wells.
"It is too soon to be able to have any type of reliable number," White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said.
But Pentagon officials have discussed the $95 billion figure with the White House, which could scale back the package as it prepares an emergency spending plan that must then be approved by Congress.
"That's the figure that's been put forward," said a senior defense official.
Sources involved in the deliberations say the price-tag of a war could still come in at close to the $61 billion spent on the 1991 Gulf War, and called the $95 billion figure a Pentagon "wish list."
Administration officials say they planned to present detailed cost estimates to President Bush in the next week. "It's a big bill," acknowledged Robin Cleveland, associate director for national security programs at the White House Office of Management and Budget.
"At the appropriate time, we will submit a supplemental (budget request) to the Congress to deal with the cost of war and the humanitarian package," Fleischer told reporters.
"No decisions have been made about the size of it. It is something that will, of course, be discussed with the Congress," he said.
According to internal White House documents provided to key congressional committees, the Bush administration expects to spend about $1 billion on humanitarian relief and reconstruction in Iraq in the first year after any U.S.-led invasion.
U.S. officials say they are preparing for the worst, including up to 2 million refugees in the weeks after any American-led invasion.
They are already sending blankets, water, tents, medicine and other supplies for up to 1 million people to the region. Nearly 2.9 million daily rations were also being stockpiled to meet emergency food needs.
But they acknowledge the cost could skyrocket if Saddam sets the country's oil fields on fire and uses chemical or biological weapons against civilians.
Although the administration is counting on Iraqi oil revenues to help pay for reconstruction, it has yet to say how the United States would manage the oil industry and whether oil income would cover the full cost.
In contrast to the 1991 Gulf War, the United States this time could be forced to pick up almost the entire bill.
COSTS MOUNT
It is unclear how much funding would be needed for a two-year U.S. military occupation, which is envisaged under U.S. war plans, and for peacekeeping after an invasion. Congressional aides say this could cost as much as $20 billion.
In addition to the huge expense of dropping bombs and distributing food in Iraq, the administration is assembling economic aid packages for key allies in the region.
Aid to Turkey and Israel alone could cost U.S. taxpayers more than $10 billion.
Jordan is seeking more than $1 billion in grants and a supply of subsidized oil. Egypt wants duty-free access to the U.S. market for its goods.
Excluding these Iraq-related costs, Bush is already projecting record U.S. budget deficits of $304 billion for the current fiscal year and $307 billion next year.
"It's staggering," one congressional aide said of the impact on the budget.
Reconstruction costs could be far greater than even the largest White House estimate.
A recent report by the James Baker Institute at Rice University and the Council on Foreign Relations estimated it would take $5 billion just to bring the Iraqi oil industry back to pre-1990s production levels, in addition to $3 billion in annual operating costs.
Michael
It's not a defense of Stainmaster Klintoon,
but let's not forget that it was Papa Bush who let Saddam off the hook.
How much would an attack of anthrax, small pox, or a dirty nuke in LA, NYC, Boston or DC cost America? I dare say it would be a lot more than 100 Billion. As for the death toll, the next attack would make September 11th look like a picnic.
As for my family, and me we choose NOT to live in fear of WMD attacks from Islam the "religion of peace". We support the President. Go in, hit them fast and hard, kill em, deliver the Iraqis and get rid of the WMD's.
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I don't know if we can afford this. It might be better to just sit here and let them spray diseases on us. If we died quickly, without running up any big medical bills, it could be cheaper than going to war.