Heads up on Gold

Kitco live gold ^

[Cicero]

Just a heads up that gold appears to be breaking through another resistance level at 370 in early trading in Asia. Platinum has also broken above a 5-year resistance level. Here's the chart. Since it's a live chart, I have no idea whether it will stay at these levels or not, but it seems worth a heads-up, at any rate. Make of it what you will:

[Cicero]

The Iraq war is what the media are talking about in connection with gold's recent rises, but the basic cause of gold's breaking through a succession of strong resistance levels, IMHO, is a sick stock market and a falling dollar.

[xzins]

Among other things expect inflation to increase.

[Dog Gone]

Here's my problem with gold. The time to sell it is exactly the time when you want it in your portfolio.

[steveegg]

Minor ping for the next step in the gold bull run.

[Cicero]

If I knew when to buy and when to sell . . . I could pay off some of my bills. In any case, I don't think it's a very good time to be in the general stock market.

[Dog Gone]

If it weren't for gold mining stocks, my stock portfolio would be in the red. I guess a little gold insurance is a good thing.

[dennisw]

So you're a goldbug too? I follow it. It's a good barometer. Yahoo finance doesn't quote gold prices. When it does then you know that .......

[rohry]

Sell 1/3 of your gold at $650...

Hold the rest until $1,700...

Pretty easy...

[LandofLincoln]

How about the fact that FIAT MONEY is under pressure everywhere. Gold, the only real money. I believe that it will be a lot higher in a year, but I do think that we will see lower prices as well. No question about it, you should be long, and buy more back around 340.00 (we will see it again).

[habs4ever]

It's an indication that LIQUIDITY is returning to the banking sector and that the monetary deflation the US has endured since 1997 is probably coming to an end.Take a look at a 10 yr log scale chart on the US dollar index, and you'll find the dollar is where it was in 1999.It goes through gyrations and the world still keeps on turning.

[weikel]

Gold will sink like a Polish battleship once the war uncertainty clears up.

[Bogie]

As always Cicero, you know exactly what you're talking about. Yes, people are looking for a new form of currency. All through the Clinton years the emphasis was on having dollars flow out of the country so that their return would be a boom for the American economy. But alas, it didn't work, and now the dollar is falling. I think platinum is going to do the best, since it is actually a much more precious metal than gold.

Remember how upset, what a panic mode, Clinton was in over the Mexican crisis? He just didn't want it to happen on his shift.

Anyhow, the USA still has the biggest economy in the world, and has been through worse things in the past.

[Ken H]

Yahoo! gold quotes-- http://finance.yahoo.com/m5?a=1&s=XAU&t=USD

[steveegg]

Maybe so, thanks for the tip on when to BUY into the next strong bull market.

I'm no goldbug, but you're looking at what's passing for a bull market in 2003.

[dennisw]

Many thanks. I just bookmarked it!

[carl in alaska]

If the war goes well for the American-lead coalition with no major damage to Iraqi oil wells and rapid progress towards Baghdad, expect to see major profit-taking in gold back down to a base at 330-350. At that point, traders should wait to see if the war ends quickly and how rapidly oil production will ramp up in Iraq after the war. If the war ends within 1-2 months and Iraqi oil production is expected to increase substantially after the war, there could be major technical damage in the gold markets with further sellling down to the 300-320 range.

If this optimistic scenario does not occur (especially if SH is able to torch a large number of Iraq's oil wells), or if North Korea starts causing major trouble, then all bets are off and gold could test long-term resistance at 380. Assuming that later this year the geopolitical situation finally calms down, gold should trade based on inflation data and the dollar. I don't expect much increase in inflation or continued declines in the dollar, so long-term I'm not real bullish on gold. IMO, stock market trading is more systematic, predictable, and profitable then attempting to trade the gold commodity markets. But if you can do it, good for you and you sure can make a ton of bucks.

[Cicero]

I have kept half an eye on gold, but it's been dead for a long, long time. Now it seems to be stirring again. I don't know if that makes me a gold bug. But I'm out of stocks, and I'm getting nervous about long-term bonds.

For the past three years, most people would have done better putting their money under a mattress than putting it into the stock market. I think the odds are we are in for a fourth year of that.

[Cicero]

There's usually a seasonal low for gold in the summer as well, with the bottom in July or August. Something to do with the jewelery purchasing schedule. But in an extraordinary year, which this might be, that seasonal pattern could be broken.

[arete]

Sell 1/3 of your gold at $650... Hold the rest until $1,700...

So you're a pessimist.

Richard W.