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FreeRepublic , LLC PO BOX 9771 FRESNO, CA 93794
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Posted on 01/15/2003 1:02:35 PM PST by Conservative News Hound
January 15, 2003 11:41
Signs of More Maritime Terror Attacks
By Tom Knowlton
On Jan. 6, 2003, Egyptian lawyer Montasser el-Zayat claims to have received an email from his long time friend, terror mastermind Ayman al-Zawahri.
In the 150-word email al-Zawahri, a senior al Qaeda lieutenant and the founder of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad terrorist organization, called for further terrorist attacks on the West and a cessation of "all attacks in Egypt."
If genuine, as U.S. intelligence analysts believe it may be, the email may indicate that al Qaeda is gearing up for its first major wave attacks in 2003.
Al-Zawahri's last communication on Oct. 6, 2002, signaled the launching of a renewed wave of terrorism against Western interests. In the month following his October audiotape statements, Islamic terrorists struck a nightclub in Bali, Indonesia, a bus station and two department stores in the Philippines, the French oil tanker Limburg off the coast of Yemen, U.S. military troop exercises in Kuwait, and assassinated American diplomat Laurence Foley in Jordan.
The timing of al Zawahri's email is particularly troubling as it comes only weeks after al Qaeda spokesman Sulaiman Abu Ghaith posted a voice recording on several Islamic extremist websites announcing that al Qaeda was planning on striking "strategic interests with all means at our disposal" and that it would "use shock weapons against the enemy, by mounting lightning, well-targeted operations against him everywhere in the world so that he feels danger, insecurity and instability on land, at sea and in the air."
Terrorism experts seeking to discern the time and place of the next major al Qaeda strike should take a serious look at protecting American, British, and Australian flagged cruise ships in Southeast Asian waters on and around Jan. 26, 2003.
Such an attack would encompass all the ingredients of an al Qaeda strike. It would fulfill the terrorist network's strategic needs, produce high casualties, cause economic harm to the West, and would coincides with a significant media presence in the region.
First, the call for Islamic militants to cease their attacks within Egypt marks a major strategic shift in al Qaeda's dealings with the Cairo government.
Islamic extremists have been waging a decades-long war to overthrow the more moderate Egyptian government and install a regime based upon Islamic law. In the past 20 years, Islamic extremists aligned with al-Zawahri and his spiritual mentor, the blind Sheikh Omar Abdel Rahman (now imprisoned in the United States in connection with the 1993 World Trade Center bombing) have conducted numerous terrorist attacks in Egypt, most notably the assassination of President Anwar Sadat in 1981 and the brutal massacre of 58 Western tourists in Luxor in 1997.
The cessation of Islamic attacks in Egypt appears to be linked to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's recent overtures to Islamic militants.
Egyptian foreign minister Ahmad Maher stated in December 2002 that the Egyptian government did not support a U.S.-led war against Iraq and would "not send our forces, not send our forces, nor take part in this war."
"Egypt will not take part in this war in any form." He added.
Later that month, Mubarak extended an invitation to four Palestinian terrorist groups - Fatah, Islamic Jihad, the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine - to meet in Cairo to minimize differences between the groups and coordinate a unified stance against Israel.
Al Zawahri's email reflects al Qaeda's apparent attempt at a "carrot and stick" diplomacy of ceasing attacks against nations that do not participate in the U.S.-led war on terrorism. The message is clearly directed at European nations, such as France and Germany, that appear more willing to pursue a path of appeasement, than one of direct confrontation against international Islamic extremism.
However, for "carrot and stick" diplomacy to be effective, al Qaeda would have to launch devastating strikes against the main proponents of the war on terrorism, the United States, Britain, and Australia.
Second, interrogation of captured al Qaeda operatives has revealed that several suicide truck-bomb attacks against Australian, British and American embassies in Southeast Asia had to be aborted when it was determined that anti-terrorism measures had made the embassies too hardened for an effective attack.
The October 2002 suicide attack on a nightclub in Bali, Indonesia, and a resort hotel in Mombassa, Kenya, a month later are evidence of an increasing trend by al Qaeda of striking soft targets with the potential for high civilian casualties. Experts say cruise ships represent a likely new target category. The relatively defenseless cruise ships are commonly viewed abroad as symbols of Western opulence and prosperity, carrying upwards of several thousand predominately Western passengers.
Dave Brennan, an analyst with the Rand Corp., has pointed that cruise ships are "low-risk targets" for al Qaeda. While heightened safety measures in U.S. and foreign ports may afford cruise ships some degree of protection from attack, they are still highly vulnerable while traversing international waterways.
The International Maritime Bureau's Piracy Reporting Center has reported that the most dangerous waterways in the world are those in Southeast Asia, particularly the strategically important Straits of Malacca between the coasts of Indonesia and Malaysia where maritime attacks are three times more likely to occur than anywhere else in the world.
Panithan Wattahanayakorn, an expert in regional affairs at Thailand's Chulalongkorn University, has stated that he believes an al Qaeda presence in the Straits is the primary cause of the rise in maritime attacks in the region's waterways.
From January through September 2002, 72 incidents of maritime attacks where reported, the majority of which were attributed to Islamic insurgents in Indonesia's north Sumatran Aceh province - a region Al-Zawahiri and al Qaeda's late military commander, Mohammed Atef, visited in June 2000.
Such maritime concerns come at a time when U.S. and allied intelligence and naval forces are already scouring the oceans for what they believe to be a fleet of approximately 15 al Qaeda-controlled freighters. Moreover, a CNN special report, "Jihad in Asia?" alleged that al Qaeda operatives and allies have stockpiled over 12 tons of explosives throughout Southeast Asia.
Cruise industry experts have been quick to point out that modern cruise ships have natural defenses against a terrorist attack. They can easily outrun a freighter and their compartmentalized design would make it extremely difficult for small craft, such as the ones used to attack the USS Cole or French tanker Limburg, to deliver a blow that would endanger the ship or injure passengers.
However, these defenses may provide cruise ships with a false sense of security, experts warn.
Even the fastest cruise ship could be at least temporarily disabled by a small craft suicide attack or sabotage from within (by either passengers or crew). An attack would need to damage a cruise ship's propulsion system only long enough for a devastating suicide attack by an explosive-filled al Qaeda freighter or hijacked fuel tanker.
Industry experts note that a fully loaded fuel tanker carries the explosive force of an .8-megaton bomb. Moreover, ocean-going transport ships have proved to be an easy mark for hijackers as they are lightly manned and generally equipped with only fire hoses for repelling hostile boarders.
Al Qaeda is additionally believed to be capable of launching a multi-boat attack similar to the September 2001 attack on the Sri Lankan ship Pride of the South. Terrorist elements of the insurgent Tamil Tigers movement attacked the ship using 20 explosive-laden speedboats, and it required the assistance of the Sri Lankan Air Force and Navy to fend off the attack.
There is a significant danger that al Qaeda could employ similar tactics to launch multiple suicide strikes upon a defenseless cruise ship in international waters.
While skeptics argue that the limited range of small craft mitigates their danger to cruise ships, one research institute has already sounded a specific warning that the terrorist network has armed itself for that form of attack. The Washington-based Maldon Institute reported in its Jan 7, 2003 briefing paper, "Seahunt for al-Qaeda's 'Navy'," that "al Qaeda ships are said to have taken on board in Djibouti small speedboats fitted with high-powered engines. The vessels then sailed for Yemen, and it was there that the speedboats were packed with explosives."
Third, a major maritime attack could wreak economic havoc on the United States. According to the U.S. Maritime Administration, the U.S. maritime transportation industry contributes $742 billion to the U.S. Gross Domestic Product and employs over 13 million people.
During a hearing before the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee, U.S. Coast Guard Commandant Adm. James M. Loy testified that "recent history shows us that, throughout the world, terrorists target transportation." *He added that "a successful attack on any of these ships could result in a catastrophic number of casualties, and threaten the economic viability of the entire [maritime transportation] industry."
Finally, intelligence experts believe that members of a Morocco-based al Qaeda cell arrested in June 2002 had been planning to utilize explosive-packed Zodiac speedboats to attack American and British naval ships traversing the Straits of Gibraltar. The planned attack was to coincide with Gibraltar Day on Sept. 10, when a large news media presence already in Gibraltar would be positioned to record the aftermath of the attack.
Likewise, terrorism experts now recognize that al Qaeda designed the timing of the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon to capture maximum news media coverage.
Experts say there appears to be a potential "window of opportunity" for al Qaeda in the Southeast Asian region in and around the Jan. 26, 2003. On that day there will be a heavy regional news media presence in the region to cover both the Australia Day and Indian Republic Day celebrations in those two nations.
While al Qaeda attacks can occur anywhere and at anytime, a heightened air and naval presence in Southeast Asian waters during this timeframe would potentially deny terrorists the ability to launch a devastating attack.
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FreeRepublic , LLC PO BOX 9771 FRESNO, CA 93794
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As for the content of the article, if it is true that this individual recieved an email from al-Zawahri, then his computer should be "appropriated" by clandestine means, and taken to a secure location in McLean Virginia and given a real good scrubbing.
StrategyPage.com
October 23, 2002; A Greek warship operating near the entrance to the Persian Gulf was approached by a small, high speed, boat. The Greeks fired warning shots and the boat turned away. A nearby flotilla of Japanese support ships were put on alert, fearing the incident indicated another al Qaeda attempt to attack ships from nations supporting the war on terror. The naval ships operating in the area are searching ships for al Qaeda members or other terrorist activity.
October 22, 2002; Yemen has admitted that the recent explosion and fire aboard a 300,000 ton French oil tanker Limburg was the result of an October 6th terrorist attack. The tanker had slowed to pick up a pilot for entry to Yemen's oil loading facility. A small boat approached and there was an explosion when the boat appeared to hit the Limburg. Yemen has rounded up the usual suspects from among the many Islamic radical groups that operate openly in the country. The attack was similar to the one against the American destroyer USS Cole in 2000. At first, Yemen insisted that it was not a terrorist attack, but rather an explosion on board the tanker. But the tanker was newly built and full of safety devices. Moreover, it’s unheard of for there to be an accidental explosion in the compartment of a tanker that is full of oil. As investigators examined the ship, they found traces of military explosives (C4) on the tanker, as well as debris from another boat (apparently the speedboat that exploded.) The Limburg was taken under tow to keep if from grounding. The fire was eventually put out and the oil is being transferred. The Limburg is not in danger of sinking, but will have to be towed to a large repair facility before it can be returned to service. One member of the crew was killed in the explosion. No one has taken responsibility for the attack, the al Qaeda has publicly called for attacks on Western ("Infidel") economies and attacks on Western oil supplies would do that. Such attacks would also hurt the economic well being of millions of Moslems in nations dependent on the sale of oil for most of their export sales.
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