Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

"The Confidence Game" (Bizarre George Gilder Article)
Forbes ^ | December 23, 2002 | George Gilder

Posted on 12/13/2002 5:04:30 PM PST by tuna_battle

I'm not sure what to think about this... Comments?!

"The Confidence Game"
George Gilder

Why do I trust Gary Winnick and Jeffrey Skilling--nefarious former chief executives of notoriously bankrupt companies--more than I trust Senator John McCain of vaunted valor in prison camps or David Broder of Pulitzer fame or Senator Joseph Lieberman of famously flinty integrity? Why do I trust Kenneth Lay of Enron and Bernard Ebbers of WorldCom more than I trust Justices William Rehnquist and Antonin Scalia, the stalwart intellectual leaders of a nominally conservative Supreme Court, or even George W. Bush, that most trusted of Presidents?

Why do I trust General Electric chief emeritus Jack Welch or AT&T Chief Michael Armstrong more than I trust the entire scientific and environmental coverage in the New York Times and all the venerable editors of the increasingly political Scientific American? Why do I trust Martha Stewart and ImClone's Sam Waksal far more than I trust the crusading journalist James B. Stewart or New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, trustbuster deluxe, as they righteously seek to banish moneylenders, marketmakers and conflicts of interest from the temples of Wall Street?

The reason I trust disgraced executives more than politicians, judges and journalists is the same reason that I trust physicists more than I trust sociologists. The answer comes from the eminent philosopher of science Karl Popper: falsifiability. In science, falsifiability means that a hypothesis is presented with sufficient rigor to be proven wrong, that is, falsified. It is the condition of trust. By contrast, the sociologist deals in broad propositions--such as "ethnic diversity improves educational outcomes" or "patriarchy causes war"--that, by sinking into a mush of definitions, defy disproof.

Except when conducting trials of identifiable crimes such as murder or assault, judges are no more truthful than politicians or journalists. They all adhere to the "ring-true" standard of sociology rather than the falsifiable standard of physics. Most of the time, as physicist Wolfgang Pauli put it in another context, they are not even wrong. Their statements lack the rigor to rate as lies and swim in the ontological soup of the verb "to be." From such a soup, no enduring truths can evolve.

Like a physical experiment, every entrepreneurial venture embodies and tests a hypothesis about products or markets. Intel is currently preparing to test the hypothesis that computer companies will choose a microprocessor that runs at 3 gigahertz, or 3 billion cycles a second, and will buy it in sufficient volumes that Intel can profitably manufacture it in a plant that costs $2 billion to build and equip. Samsung is testing whether people will buy a cell phone that takes digital photographs. Ebay is testing whether it can move beyond Web auctions of used wine openers to Web auctions of $20,000 antique cars, and to TV programs. The presence of such testable hypotheses distinguishes investment from both gambling and government planning. A true gamble does not test a refutable principle. Therefore it cannot produce valuable knowledge. Likewise, a nationalized business with guaranteed markets cannot yield falsifiable information.

Knowledge emerges not from chaos, or fixity, but from conditions of uncertainty. Under capitalism power flows to precisely the people who are willing to stake their money not on gambles or sure things but on testable hypotheses, thus generating knowledge and wealth for society. Entrepreneurs are trustworthy because they accept a moral code of testability and falsifiability rather than one based on sentiment, sanctimony, good intentions, good press, good luck, good looks or guarantees.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Constitution/Conservatism; Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Philosophy
KEYWORDS: business; capitalism; falsifiability; georgegilder; uncertainty; wealth
I'm not sure what to think about this... Comments?!
1 posted on 12/13/2002 5:04:30 PM PST by tuna_battle
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: tuna_battle
Perhaps his broadband portfolio took a big hit.
2 posted on 12/13/2002 5:16:07 PM PST by bigfootbob
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: tuna_battle
While I respect some of what Gilder is saying in this piece, the executives he cites make this just more of his recent nonsense. Free market capitalists are to be admired; crooks who abuse their positions, lie to their stockholders, and profit personally from deceit should be jailed, not hailed.

Bernie Ebbers vs. George W.? Wow, what an easy choice... Now Bubba vs. Bernie: maybe Gilder makes a point.

3 posted on 12/13/2002 5:24:45 PM PST by ReleaseTheHounds
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: tuna_battle
Lets add to Gilder's esoteric list of "why I trust blank more than blank, with our own " Who cares who Gilder trusts."?
4 posted on 12/13/2002 5:36:39 PM PST by billhilly
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: tuna_battle
A few months ago this guy came close to bankrupt did he not?
5 posted on 12/13/2002 5:41:16 PM PST by dennisw
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dennisw
http://www.vdare.com/sailer/gilder.htm

Well, guess what? The NASDAQ has since fallen over 70%. Gilder's favorite stocks, the telecoms, lost trillions in perhaps the biggest wipeout in market history. And Gilder says he's broke and has a lien on his house. His ownership of The American Spectator magazine has proved too expensive and he has given control back to R. Emmett Tyrrell.

Gilder now says, "I knew that it was going to crash, I really did." Unfortunately, he forgot to mention it in his newsletter.

6 posted on 12/13/2002 5:43:54 PM PST by dennisw
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: dennisw
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/10.07/gilder_pr.html
7 posted on 12/13/2002 5:49:52 PM PST by dennisw
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: tuna_battle
Tests of logic can take place here and now, the present. In the real world, what concerns the testable is hung up with a future then engages a world beyond the immediate present. That is why in Aristotle's Nicomachean Ethics the person of practical success was grounded in the proper wisdom which did not lose sight of the larger context of the present. The more a civilization will turn to mere practical success, the more it will resemble Roman civilization, which in the end, got hung up. Ol' Cicero appealed to the tried and true, and somehow it should've all worked. And even the most successful would turn to astrology to get a certain fix on the numbers. The weakness in Guilder's argument, (although any argument against a confused opponent will always appear somewhat credible) is that his definition of what a human being is, is defined by practical success alone. It is more a "homo making" than a "home dying." Von Mises comes to mind as the perfect testimonial to this optimism in his first chapter in Human Action. Von Mises basically tells us, here's what works, never mind whether it should. Socrates on the other hand gives the first real glimpse at the can-should argument. Just becuase you can (succeed), doesn't mean you should.

Practical success was the appeal that brought Gorbachev to tout Glasnost and visit farms in the United States.

8 posted on 12/13/2002 6:27:47 PM PST by cornelis
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

This statement points to the most important question facing Americans and their leaders today. It is a philosophic question that encompasses all the great contemporary policy questions: Were the American Founders or their Progressive-liberal critics correct about human nature and the ends of government?

From: Liberal Democracy vs. Transnational Progressivism: The Ideological Civil War Within the West

9 posted on 12/13/2002 6:50:21 PM PST by cornelis
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: cornelis
I'm bookmarking this for your reply and your link.

Excellent !

10 posted on 12/14/2002 4:25:02 AM PST by happygrl
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson