Posted on 12/12/2002 9:22:53 AM PST by NormsRevenge
NOAA: El Nino to Bring Warmer Winter to Northern US
By Christopher Doering WASHINGTON (Reuters) - El Nino will bring milder temperatures this winter to the northern half of the United States, government forecasters said Thursday.
The weather phenomenon will extend through spring, pounding the U.S. from southern California to the Carolinas with more storms, which will help replenish low water levels after several years of below-normal precipitation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.
But at the same time, EL Nino will worsen the drought in the Rockies and the Midwest, said NOAA which previously predicted El Nino would subside in February.
"This is a classic El Nino pattern," Conrad Lautenbacher, NOAA administrator, said in a statement. "El Nino is one of the driving forces behind these kinds of winter storm systems, which develop in the South and head east," he said.
El Nino is an abnormal warming of waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that wreaks havoc on weather patterns, mainly in the Asian Pacific region.
Forecasters said this El Nino will not be as devastating as the one in 1997-98 which killed nearly 25,000 people and caused billions of dollars in damages due to withering drought in Indonesia and rampant floods in Ecuador and Peru.
Meaning "little boy" in Spanish, El Nino was named after the Christ Child by anchovy fishermen of South America in the 1800s because it usually appeared around Christmas time.
MIDWEST, WEST DROUGHT TO CONTINUE
El Nino will bring no relief to drought-stricken farmers and ranchers in the Rockies and parts of the Midwest, NOAA forecasters said. Drier-than-normal conditions will linger in Montana and northern parts of Idaho and Wyoming.
"Drought may intensify in the northern Rockies and parts of the Midwest," said Jack Kelly, director of NOAA's National Weather Service (news - web sites).
About 53 percent of U.S. land west of the Mississippi River remains in a drought, a slight improvement from 55 percent in September, NOAA said. In states east of the Mississippi River where drought festered through the summer, only 9 percent of the land remains in drought. Last summer, the United States battled one of the worst droughts in its history, with high temperatures and a lack of rain scorching corn, wheat and soybean crops in the Plains and Midwest. The drought also evaporated streams and created tinder-like conditions that helped ignite devastating Western wildfires. Earlier this week, the U.S. Agriculture Department said the domestic corn harvest this year would fall to 9 billion bushels, soybeans to 2.69 billion bushels and cotton to 17.83 million bales. The U.S. wheat crop is the smallest since 1972, but rising prices and recent rains have encouraged planting of winter wheat crops. El Nino is also expected to worsen conditions in the Pacific Northwest, where mountain snow is important to help generate hydroelectricity.
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This is great news considering it got down to 10 below zero here in NY State the other night. As soon as that warming tend comes though I'll have my swimming trunks ready.
That's warming trend.
When's this going to start? Indiana has had only one day so far in December when the temperature has been up to average for this time of the year.
In parts of PA, too. We've gone through almost as much wood so far this year as we used all of last year...and winter hasn't even officially started yet.
The sooner we get weather in Michigan to be like North Carolina (without ice) the happier I'll be!
I want a 9 month boating season. The other 3 months can be Fall, Winter & Spring. :)
By Oyaol Ngirairikl, and Scott Radway
ongirairikl@guampdn.com; Pacific Daily News
President Bush declared Guam a federal disaster area yesterday morning, while Federal Emergency Management Agency officials were welcomed at a Civil Defense meeting yesterday afternoon.
FEMA officials were on Guam because they anticipated Supertyphoon Pongsona would hit Saipan, making Guam strategically ideal for a quick emergency response.
"We're really here to support all of you. We're going into the long haul here ... and the weight of the federal family is behind all of us," said David Fukutami, FEMA's coordinating officer.
Instead of Saipan, Pongsona hit Guam with sustained winds of 150 mph and gusts to 184 mph, essentially flattening parts of the island.
Maj. Gen. Benny Paulino, acting director of military affairs, asked agency directors to provide preliminary damage assessments, to get a comprehensive look at the island's current status.
"We're going to give the governor an immediate assessment of each of your respective areas. We're not looking for details. We're looking at quick assessments so we can get an appreciation of what we're dealing with," Paulino said.
Civil Defense officials yesterday could not yet provide the number of people injured, homeless, or dead because of the supertyphoon.
Don Weakley, acting associate director at Guam Memorial Hospital, confirmed one death related to the supertyphoon. He said an elderly woman was cut badly during the peak of the storm and apparently went into cardiac arrest.
He said no one could get an emergency crew to the house, which was only a short distance from the hospital. The family of the woman attempted cardio-pulmonary resuscitation, he said, but the woman was dead when she finally arrived at the hospital.
Five other deaths occurred during the storm, two at the hospital, but Weakley could not confirm if those deaths were related to Pongsona.
Guam Fire Department and Guam National Guard members were assigned to search for possible typhoon survivors who were stranded without shelter or transportation, officials said.
John Ryan, spokesman for Gov. Carl Gutierrez, said during the first hours after the storm, recovery efforts were only beginning to take shape as crews concentrated on pulling trapped people from collapsed houses and finding shelter for the homeless.
"This was a bad typhoon. We are trying to rescue people who may still be trapped and getting people who may have lost their homes into shelters by nightfall," Ryan said.
Airport
For those residents waiting for visiting family members, or those expecting to leave Guam, the good news is the airport might reopen by 5 p.m. today.
"Frankly, I question if that's really feasible," said Gerald Yingling, executive manager of the Antonio B. Won Pat International Airport Authority.
The airport's priority at this time, Yingling said, is to ensure FEMA planes arrive safely.
Current issues facing the airport are safety and inoperable navigational equipment. Yingling said he was in contact with Federal Aviation Administration officials regarding those matters.
Pongsona steamrolled about 60 percent of the metal security fences surrounding the airport. Yingling said airport police were patrolling the area.
Andersen Air Force Base's airport was hit worse than the civilian airport, so asking the Air Force for help is not feasible, he added.
Port
Port Authority of Guam officials said damage assessments at that facility were slow going, hampered by fires at a fuel tank farm.
Sometime Sunday afternoon, a tank of jet fuel caught fire. Firefighters from Anderson Air Force Base, the airport and the local fire department were working yesterday to keep other tanks of airplane fuel from catching fire.
Utilities
Government directors urged people to stay home or at shelters, as traffic has hampered agencies' efforts to reach telephone lines, utility poles and other utilities that need to be assessed and repaired.
Anyone who doesn't have to be on the road should stay at home, one official said.
Although Guam was returned to Typhoon Condition 4 at 2 p.m. yesterday, many residents hit the road for a look at the damage caused by Pongsona, weaving through jet skis, tree branches and swinging poles held up by power lines.
Guam Power Authority General Manager T. Ann Aguon Perez said unnecessary traffic was slowing her agency's efforts to assess the number of downed power poles.
"It's taking my crews more than an hour to get to different areas they need to work at," she said.
Perez said although the utility sustained damage, many generators at the power plants looked intact and need to be fired up to ensure they are fully operable.
The governor Sunday said full power, water and sewage restoration would take several weeks.
Debris
Mayors' offices already have begun cleanup and recovery efforts in their respective villages.
Mayors' Council President Robert S. Lizama said mayors are concerned that residents whose homes were destroyed by Supertyphoon Pongsona need different types of assistance.
"They have families out there who are calling the mayors' offices because they have no place to stay," said Lizama, who also is Yigo's mayor.
Other people are asking for tarps and tents so they can sleep near their homes because they are afraid that people may loot them, he said.
Guam Police Department officials said officers are on rotating shifts to ensure maximum force, especially during evenings "to keep vulnerable stores and homes safe."
Jesse Garcia, Department of Public Works acting director, said crews already are on the streets, clearing debris.
Garcia added anyone with debris can leave it on the side of the road, and his crews will pick it up. He could not say how long it will be until his crews picked up the debris.
But Guam Environmental Protection Agency officials said residents are already piling debris at waste sites that were designated for use after July's Typhoon Chata'an.
"There are no dumps open yet ... so right now, what people are doing is illegal," said David Longa, GEPA acting administrator.
Longa said five dumpsites were identified earlier, but the storm was stronger than anticipated, so more sites need to be identified.
Meanwhile, residents should wait to dump their debris until those sites are opened.
Telephones
Guam Telephone Authority officials are working to restore to residents.
"We do have a downed fiber ring that covers the south. ... We're assuming that's part of an ocean break," GTA General Manager Vince Arriola said yesterday.
Crews were assessing the break yesterday morning, but officials did not know how long it would take to repair the break and restore service to residents in the southern ring, which include the villages of Piti, Agat, Inarajan and Umatac.
With the exception of those southern villages and other isolated areas, officials are expecting telephone service to be restored by early today.
Schools
Vince Leon Guerrero, Department of Education response activity coordinator, said 15 public schools are being used as shelters, and administrators have been told to begin damage assessments at schools.
Before Sunday's storm, at least two shelters, Astumbo Elementary School and Maria Ulloa Elementary School, reached capacity and several people were directed to other shelters.
At least one school locked its gates during relative calm of the passage of the storm's eye, when families were hurrying to find shelter from demolished homes.
Leon Guerrero said each school had different capacity levels, but added several of the schools exceeded capacity.
"But there has to be a limit," he said.
"At one of the schools, there was a fight in the middle of the parking lot during the typhoon."
I know I'm in the minority, but I've lived in Iowa all my life because I enjoy all 4 seasons.
I happen to enjoy snow and yearn for the winters of my youth, when we had snow from November through March. The dry, warm winters are depressing, especially around Christmas time.
Pretty wierd, huh? I keep telling my wife we need to move to the mountains, where at least we'll see some snow guaranteed.
I Guess the warming is not very abnormal after all if it usually appeared around Christmas in the 19th C. and it still does?
Rippin
And all that leftover rain is now headed straight for my neighborhood. Wonderful...
Heck, they can't even predict the weather three hours ahead sometimes. So many times in the past few years, I've checked the weather when we were having a blizzard and already had a foot of snow on the ground...only to have the forecasters insist on telling me we were having snow showers or flurries, with 1-3 inches of accumulation. Or have them say it's sunny, when the wind is blowing like a hurricane and the rain is pounding down with the force to down trees...and we're huddling on the porch watching the 'nipple clouds', and wondering which one of those funnels will make it to the ground.
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