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Tuesday, 12/10, Market WrapUp (Managed Markets And a Managed Economy)
Financial Sense Online ^ | 12/10/2002 | James J. Puplava

Posted on 12/10/2002 6:00:32 PM PST by rohry

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"One has to think how much the financial world has changed over the last two decades. It appears that Washington and Wall Street have become fully infected by the ghost of John Maynard Keynes. The phrase by Richard Nixon that, “We are all Keynesians now.” has never been truer. The fact that financial markets have become inflated, there is a bubble in bonds, mortgages, and real estate and consumption, and that there is a record amount of debt in this country is looked upon as signs of a robust economy. Instead, it should be raising concerns and alarm bells that something has gone amiss in our society."
1 posted on 12/10/2002 6:00:32 PM PST by rohry
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To: bvw; Tauzero; robnoel; kezekiel; ChadGore; Harley - Mississippi; Dukie; Matchett-PI; Moonman62; ...
Market WrapUp is delivered...
2 posted on 12/10/2002 6:01:45 PM PST by rohry
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To: rohry
Enjoy today's rally. We will sell off 500 Dow points into the end of the week.
3 posted on 12/10/2002 6:03:42 PM PST by montag813
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To: rohry
On Creating Wealth
"Printing Money to Induce Wealth Effects
When interest rates are positive and policy actions lower them, one channel through which aggregate demand is raised is the wealth effect generated by higher asset prices. But if interest rates are at the zero bound, then there are no wealth effects from the open market operations in these assets. This leaves wealth effects operative only if the central bank can directly engineer increases in wealth either by purchasing assets at above market values or by “printing” money and somehow distributing it to the public as a transfer payment.

WEALTH: The net ownership of material possessions and productive resources. In other words, the difference between physical and financial assets that you own and the liabilities that you owe. Wealth includes all of the tangible consumer stuff that you possess, like cars, houses, clothes, jewelry, etc.; any financial assets, like stocks, bonds, bank accounts, that you lay claim to; and your ownership of resources, including labor, capital, and natural resources. Of course, you must deduct any debts you owe.

VALUE ADDED: The increase in the value of a good at each stage of the production process. The value that's being increased is specifically the ability of a good to satisfy wants and needs either directly as a consumption good or indirectly as a capital good. A good that provides greater satisfaction has greater value. In essence, the whole purpose of production is to transform raw materials and natural resources that have relatively little value into goods and services that have greater value.

SERVICE: An activity that provides direct satisfaction of wants and needs without the production of a tangible product or good. Examples include information, entertainment, and education. This term good should be contrasted with the term good, which involves the satisfaction of wants and needs with tangible items. You're likely to see the plural combination of these two into a single phrase, "goods and services," to indicate the wide assortment of economic production from the economy's scarce resources.

Wealth is created only by engaging in value-added activities. By the same token, Service sector activities do not create wealth, they merely transfer, redistribute and eventually dissipate wealth as consumption. Thus, as value-added activities move offshore and the U.S. labor force shifts to the Service Sector, wealth is dissipated, not created. And the U.S. standard of living declines as a result.

The Road to Productive Wealth

The only true key to wealth lies in production. While you can increase your own wealth at the expense of others, we all become wealthier when productive resources are increased. Greater wealth for our economy lies in increasing the quantity or quality of productive resources -- labor, capital, and natural resources. This is done by investing in education, capital goods, research and development, and technology.

What works for our economy, can also work for each of us. You can acquire wealth by education, buying productive capital goods, inventing a new product, and assorted other improvements in productive resources.


4 posted on 12/10/2002 6:09:51 PM PST by Willie Green
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To: montag813
That's a heck of a prediction. I'm expecting to see another three to five weeks of weak upward movement, followed by declining markets through most of next year. Anyway, we'll see if you were right by this weekend.
5 posted on 12/10/2002 6:10:21 PM PST by Billy_bob_bob
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To: montag813
We will sell off 500 Dow points into the end of the week

That is a pretty bold prediction. How about we're going to be down for two weeks in a row?

Richard W.

6 posted on 12/10/2002 6:15:00 PM PST by arete
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To: arete
Speaking of bold predictions, Mahendra Sharma is predicting a new yearly high for gold within 5 days and the start of the war with Iraq on 1/7/03. I'm can't figure out if this guy really believes in astrology or just uses it as a metaphor. At least he is specific in his predictions. Not sure why Murphy includes him on lemetropolecafe as it makes the site look a bit flaky and GATA needs all the credibility they can muster.
7 posted on 12/10/2002 6:32:31 PM PST by Soren
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To: Willie Green
Hey Willy, I'm pretty dense. What is your point?
8 posted on 12/10/2002 6:35:10 PM PST by rohry
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To: rohry
Basicly just posting fundamental economic definitions of "wealth creation".

That gobble-de-gook about the Fed "creating" wealth simply reflects the narcissism of the financial community, IMHO.

9 posted on 12/10/2002 6:46:34 PM PST by Willie Green
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To: Billy_bob_bob
I'm expecting to see another three to five weeks of weak upward movement,

That would be positive. Weak downward movement would be positive too. But violent "bubble II" rallies are bad along with 10% drops in a week. The problem with both of those is they both delay the orderly bottoming of the market. The large drops end up causing technical rebounds which the press turn into "this is really the bottom" news stories which then cause more rallies in some overpriced stocks.

I believe we need a multi-year U-shaped bottom in the averages while at the same time the sectors realign themselves to more equivalent valuations. Anything that distracts from or delays that bottoming process is just delaying the return to market health. And an unhealthy market won't be able to absorb external shocks which would then drive the fed to even more market meddling.

10 posted on 12/10/2002 7:14:58 PM PST by palmer
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To: rohry
What does the US need? Oil and, if you believe recent reports, gold. The Howe/Bolser paper published last week shows a short position of 16,000 tons based on BIS numbers, the majority of which is most likely held by US bullion banks. We all know about the upcoming war in Iraq and those of us who are more skeptical, some would say cynical, can speculate on the real reasons. That covers oil. Now I ask myself, what is the endgame for the gold situation, which has the potential to blow up into a major financial crisis and scandal? We are talking about the financial wellbeing of the big money power center. These guys don't just pack it in and go home. Donning my tinfoil helmet, the first thing that came to mind is South Africa, one of the largest gold producers in the world. I've been keeping my eyes open over the last few months for any signs of creating a rationale for some kind of action. I recognize that this is highly unlikely, but these are desperate times. Today, there was a front page article in the WSJ titled "In South Africa Evidence of Al Queda Links". The article discusses, among other things, how South Africa loses 35 tons of gold a year from its mines due to smuggling and how Al Queda is shifting from cash into gold. I'm not saying this proves anything, BUT if there was some nefarious plan in the works, articles like this are exactly what I would expect as a first step.
11 posted on 12/10/2002 7:19:08 PM PST by Soren
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To: Soren
We all know about the upcoming war in Iraq and those of us who are more skeptical, some would say cynical, can speculate on the real reasons. That covers oil.

I keep a roll of foil right here on my desk. I was wondering what or maybe who would be next after Iraq. Our economy was driven by consumerism and debt -- now, excessive consumerism and excessive debt-- and next it will be super fuel injected consumism and mind numbing exploding debt. The only way to keep the standard of living increasing to to exploit the world on a much grander scale than we have been.

If the muslim world really wanted to screw up the global financial system, all they would have to do is make it a requirement for every follower to buy 1oz of gold. They wouldn't need any airplanes, suicide bombers, dirty bombs or anything else. It would be game over for JPM and the fiat currency puppet masters on Wall Street and Washington.

Richard W.

12 posted on 12/10/2002 8:16:21 PM PST by arete
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To: arete; rohry; Billy_bob_bob; Willie Green; montag813; steveegg
What really separates the men from the boys is interpreting the invisible tracks that dodge like pixies about your computer screen. These are the material factors that are not plotted on a chart. When tape reading or reviewing a chart, you can't see them there like: price, volume, money stream, tick volume, on balance volume, RSI, MACD, stochastic, etc. But they are there, making themselves felt just as surely as trendlines and moving averages. They interact with what you see, and they modify the significance of what you see.

What are these invisible gnomes, slinking craftily behind and between the trends and reversals that steal our gaze as we strain for answers? They are the long shadows of the news, the persistent pushes and pulls of the market and sectors of the market, the authoritative demands of underlying fundamentals. They are the ghosts of public mood and management fakery and fickle institutions and naïve investors and bungling media who never get it completely right. They swim in a flow of valid information and malarkey, wisdom and foolish tips, leaks and unfounded gossip - all dressed in the same garb, all claiming to be in the know.

The consummate technical analyst sees these invisible marks on a chart peeking out from the green price bars, and he uses them to rearrange his thoughts.

The experienced chart reader modifies every event with something hidden. He asks himself questions like: "Was this advance on good news, bad news, or no news - and which do I think would be best for the stock?" "Does this reporter know what he is talking about, or is he just filling in a reason to make a story?" "Can I expect the CEO of this company to give us an unbiased accounting of why he wants to merge?" "Why is this stock going sidewise despite what I read in the news?" "What is the conventional wisdom about this industry, and why do I suspect it is too pat and too easy?" "Why I am surprised by what I see on this chart?" "Why did the other two auto stocks go down today?" "I know this company issued an earnings warning today, but why has it already gone down so much?" "Why did the news program report that this stock was up ten points today without mentioning that it was down twenty points yesterday?" "After reading what they're saying about this stock, would I be able to guess, approximately, what the chart actually looks like?" "Is there hidden opportunity here?" "Is there hidden danger here?" "Am I ignoring the obvious?"

Buying stocks really doesn't take much brains at all and any reason under the sun is good enough not to buy a stock. Once one holds a security however, all that changes. Every second that one holds onto that stock requires an active decision not to sell. That's when brains really come into the picture. The results of selling after buying are indicative of how intelligent the stock trader is.

13 posted on 12/10/2002 8:31:53 PM PST by raygun
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To: arete
"all they would have to do is make it a requirement for every follower to buy 1oz of gold"

There's already talk of some muslim countries switching from paper to gold coin. If they carry through, it would have the same effect.
14 posted on 12/10/2002 8:32:16 PM PST by dalereed
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To: Willie Green
You claim that: wealth is created "only by engaging in value-added activities".

You also claim that "service sector activities do not create wealth".

Then you say that "the whole purpose of production is to transform raw materials and natural resources that have relatively little value into goods and services that have greater value".

So, in other words, services have "greater value" than "raw materials and natural resources that have relatively little value" and therefore constitute wealth since wealth is created by "engaging in value-added activities" but "service sector activities do not create wealth".

Your argument is pathetic word-shuffling and essentially meaningless.

The capacity to provide services is a valuable resource. A mechanic may or may not own a car. But if he has the knowledge to fix other people's cars (i.e. add value to cars) then his service directly adds value and is clearly a source of wealth.

If you told him he had a choice of either losing his bank account or forgetting all knowledge of how to perform his mechanic services he would choose the former. Why? Because he knows what wealth consists of - the ability to generate value.

Your Marxist distinction between production of tangible goods and intangible goods (like knowledge) is as bankrupt as the Soviet Union which adopted it.

15 posted on 12/10/2002 9:11:05 PM PST by wideawake
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To: arete
Gold is merely a commodity these days. The US dollar is the international measure of value, not Au.

I'm all for hard money - but a run on gold would be as successful for the Muslims as a run on silver was for the Hunt Brothers.

The Hunt Brothers proved that silver was less fungible than greenbacks. The same goes for gold.

16 posted on 12/10/2002 9:15:39 PM PST by wideawake
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To: Willie Green
The fact that the service economy creates wealth has nothing to do with the Fed's printing of more currency.

The Fed does not create wealth. It creates liquidity.

There's a difference.

And there's no need for a Fed at all. The market can create its own liquidity.

17 posted on 12/10/2002 9:18:16 PM PST by wideawake
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To: wideawake
Gold is merely a commodity these days. The US dollar is the international measure of value, not Au.

That is what the government propagandists and the FED would like the public to believe, but gold has always been the reserve currency of choice. The dollar is nothing but a fiat currency and can be manipulated by the government and the bankers. It is doomed to fail. It is just a question of when.

Richard W.

18 posted on 12/10/2002 9:37:25 PM PST by arete
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To: raygun
The consummate technical analyst sees these invisible marks on a chart peeking out from the green price bars, and he uses them to rearrange his thoughts.

I never thought much of technical analysis
and tend to dismiss it similar to Miss Cleo's numerology.
I'm more inclined to invest based on a specific company's fundamentals.

19 posted on 12/10/2002 9:56:03 PM PST by Willie Green
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To: wideawake
The fact that the service economy creates wealth

Services don't create wealth.
They merely transfer, redistribute and eventually dissipate wealth.

20 posted on 12/10/2002 10:00:18 PM PST by Willie Green
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