[arete]

We all know about the upcoming war in Iraq and those of us who are more skeptical, some would say cynical, can speculate on the real reasons. That covers oil.

I keep a roll of foil right here on my desk. I was wondering what or maybe who would be next after Iraq. Our economy was driven by consumerism and debt -- now, excessive consumerism and excessive debt-- and next it will be super fuel injected consumism and mind numbing exploding debt. The only way to keep the standard of living increasing to to exploit the world on a much grander scale than we have been.

If the muslim world really wanted to screw up the global financial system, all they would have to do is make it a requirement for every follower to buy 1oz of gold. They wouldn't need any airplanes, suicide bombers, dirty bombs or anything else. It would be game over for JPM and the fiat currency puppet masters on Wall Street and Washington.

Richard W.

[raygun]

What really separates the men from the boys is interpreting the invisible tracks that dodge like pixies about your computer screen. These are the material factors that are not plotted on a chart. When tape reading or reviewing a chart, you can't see them there like: price, volume, money stream, tick volume, on balance volume, RSI, MACD, stochastic, etc. But they are there, making themselves felt just as surely as trendlines and moving averages. They interact with what you see, and they modify the significance of what you see.

What are these invisible gnomes, slinking craftily behind and between the trends and reversals that steal our gaze as we strain for answers? They are the long shadows of the news, the persistent pushes and pulls of the market and sectors of the market, the authoritative demands of underlying fundamentals. They are the ghosts of public mood and management fakery and fickle institutions and naïve investors and bungling media who never get it completely right. They swim in a flow of valid information and malarkey, wisdom and foolish tips, leaks and unfounded gossip - all dressed in the same garb, all claiming to be in the know.

The consummate technical analyst sees these invisible marks on a chart peeking out from the green price bars, and he uses them to rearrange his thoughts.

The experienced chart reader modifies every event with something hidden. He asks himself questions like: "Was this advance on good news, bad news, or no news - and which do I think would be best for the stock?" "Does this reporter know what he is talking about, or is he just filling in a reason to make a story?" "Can I expect the CEO of this company to give us an unbiased accounting of why he wants to merge?" "Why is this stock going sidewise despite what I read in the news?" "What is the conventional wisdom about this industry, and why do I suspect it is too pat and too easy?" "Why I am surprised by what I see on this chart?" "Why did the other two auto stocks go down today?" "I know this company issued an earnings warning today, but why has it already gone down so much?" "Why did the news program report that this stock was up ten points today without mentioning that it was down twenty points yesterday?" "After reading what they're saying about this stock, would I be able to guess, approximately, what the chart actually looks like?" "Is there hidden opportunity here?" "Is there hidden danger here?" "Am I ignoring the obvious?"

Buying stocks really doesn't take much brains at all and any reason under the sun is good enough not to buy a stock. Once one holds a security however, all that changes. Every second that one holds onto that stock requires an active decision not to sell. That's when brains really come into the picture. The results of selling after buying are indicative of how intelligent the stock trader is.

[dalereed]

"all they would have to do is make it a requirement for every follower to buy 1oz of gold"

There's already talk of some muslim countries switching from paper to gold coin. If they carry through, it would have the same effect.

[wideawake]

Gold is merely a commodity these days. The US dollar is the international measure of value, not Au.

I'm all for hard money - but a run on gold would be as successful for the Muslims as a run on silver was for the Hunt Brothers.

The Hunt Brothers proved that silver was less fungible than greenbacks. The same goes for gold.

[steveegg]

Very interesting. While the one-time spike in gold prices may well sink the likes of JPM, unless that "Muslim gold" keeps on getting traded to support that spike, it's survivable.

[razorback-bert]

I keep a roll of foil right here on my desk.

Ah, I see your problem, the foil goes on your head, not the desk.