Greektown(Casino) ejects winning video poker players

Associated Press ^

[RCW2001]

Greektown Casino has ejected about 30 video poker players in recent weeks because they have become unprofitable customers, casino officials said.

The players'winnings _ combined with cash-back incentives and freebies _ are costing the casino, according to Greektown officials, who said the casino would have to consider broader cost-cutting measures if it didn't bar some gamblers.

[lodwick]

Fascinating link - thanks.

[js1138]

It's quite possible -- even likely -- that the hands dealt in video poker are not random. If they are generated by software algorithm rather than being the result of some high order random number generator based on something like radioactive decay -- then someone could learn their pattern and have a consistent edge. They might even have access to the program.

[general_re]

Ah, that makes more sense. The odds on craps are relatively straightforward - where people tend to get killed is on some of those absurdly complicated side-bets that pop up along the way, like the proposition bets. Other than negating the house advantage by betting the pass line and taking the odds bet, side-bets in craps are best avoided by the casual gambler. ;)

[TankerKC]

I do not understand why anyone gambles at casinos.

[Mr. Bird]

I watched a very cool show on the Learning Channel about Vegas, gambling, etc. Two guys developed a program that could determine the algorithm used in the Keno game after entering just a few results.

So what did they do? Placed a 20 number Keno bet and hit all 20. Needless to say, the odds were astronomical which tipped the casino heads to something fishy. Upon investigation, they learned one of the guys was a former employee of an electronic casino-game manufacturer, and they found the laptop with the tell-tale program.

The idiots could have spent weeks siphoning off the same amount of money in smaller amounts, but went for the kill and got nabbed.

[TankerKC]

This is true, but the odds didn't catch up with me last week in Las Vegas. I played slots and won over a thousand dollars. Paid for the trip.

Yeah, sure it did. Somebody's paying to build all of those nice casinos. They always get you in the long run. If you are gambling because you think you are going to make money, get help. If you are gambling for entertainment and consider the losses to be the price of admission, keep doing it.

[Billthedrill]

Odds don't have a great deal to do with this issue - the fact is that chronically successful blackjack players are quietly banned from Vegas casinos as well, John Scarne being a notable early example. This is public relations. Bad, bad public relations. Everyone tends to imagine him- or herself a more skillful player than he or she actually is, which is why casinos so seldom go broke. This sends the message "if you're really good, we don't want you to play here," and will discourage not only those who really are inordinately skillful, but those who only imagine they are.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Inciteful commentary. You are right, the near-breakeven odds (and some cases player-favored odds) are calculated with the royal flush in mind, you need to hit it to stay in business, otherwise you're losing fairly modestly even playing correct strategy until you do. I think the issue in question are certain progessive jackpot machines that tilt the odds in the player's favor once the jackpot reaches a certain level, but you still have to hit it to get a payoff.

You can imagine there are plenty of other folks with no lives who have nothing better to do but be at the casino 24/7 looking for such situations, who will be lining up to get that royal for themselves. Its not worth it, IMO, unless you are playing for the comps, free rooms at a minimum...if that's your thing.

[jiggyboy]

They are indeed not random, as "random" is defined. "Pseudo-random" is the phrase in the computer biz; the algorithm itself must be registered in some cases (Nevada for sure). (Mathematical illiteracy bonus: The earliest algorithms immediately picked five "back-up" cards as the "draw" cards; people found out and complained, believing that this rigged the game somehow, so this is now prohibited.)

I don't have first-hand knowledge of the lowest-level subroutines used to generate the random numbers for video poker machines, but in practice it is impossible because true randomness in the form of keypresses and interaction with networked machines comes into the equation; never mind how hard it would be to crack the code and put to use even if you had the algorithm on a piece of paper in front of you.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Everything else in there is a guaranteed loser

Well, not everything. There is a sizeable professional poker and sports/horse betting crowd there, as well as the card counters...but that's about it. The caveat is, its not for everybody, the amount of skill required to make a living at these endeavors, would probably get you alot more money at your day job, if you were at the same level of skill. YMMV.

[js1138]

Generating random numbers is tough. At least as tough as generating cypher keys. I would think the temptation to steal or sell the algorithms for gambling machines would be overwhelming. This is probably wht lotto uses ping pong balls.

Although these have occasionally been tampered with.

[kms61]

That's true with any game you play against the house. That leaves games in which you compete against other gamblers and the house doesn't care who wins...horse racing, sports, poker. With these, you CAN win consistently if you're willing to put in the effort. Most people aren't.

[jiggyboy]

Here's a pretty good strategy for "Jacks or Better" video poker, just for fun. Dump those kickers if you have a pair!

[HIDEK6]

I do not understand why anyone gambles at casinos.

Allow me to help.

(whispers) ...It's for the rush!

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Actually, this is a pretty non-optimal strategy. The correct strategy, which changes for each machine (which is why its a pain in the @ss, which is also why the casinos don't mind too much since they know most people won't be bothered to learn), is very non-intuitive. For example, when do go for the straight or flush? What if you have 4 to a royal, but also a pair of kings? In assuming a basic Jacks or Better machine, if you get 5 garbage cards all less than a jack, you draw 5 new cards but what if you have a J-Q-A, or a J-Q-K or a J-K-A? The strategy may call for keeping the 2 non-A cards only.

And even then, unless you hit the royal, its still a loser.

For curiosity sake, I looked into this years ago but its way too much effort for me. Even in favorable conditions, spending a 100 hrs to hit the royal may only get you $10 per hour. What a waste.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Interesting. I had heard that no one has ever legitimately won a Keno jackpot in the state of Nevada. Just imagine, you hit 6 of 6 in a state lottery, you are set for life. In Keno, you hit 20 of 20 for a hundred grand...talk about a 10 sigma event, no wonder its never happened. I can understand why the casino would instantly distrust any Keno jackpot winner.

[discostu]

Things get a little trickier with jacks or better, but the basics are still the same. For straights only go for them if you're missing the outside cards (or preferably card), 6-7-8 is a good place to build a straight from, 6-7-8-9 is fantastic, 6-7-8-10 is no good, only go for flushes if your 4/5 of the way there. Either way if you're sitting on something that will make money (jacks or better) don't break it up. Computerized/ video poker rewards consistency and cowardice. Real life poker rewards bravery and bluffing (though you should STILL never try to draw into an inside straight).

[general_re]

You're both right in pointing out that I left out the poker players, where the house just facilitates the game, and the sports book and the ponies. Naturally, though, with the bookies, you're not a guaranteed loser in the long run, but the house is always a guaranteed winner - set the line on the football game (or the odds on the horses) so that the winners and losers are balanced, take a percentage of every winning bet, and you'll make a tidy profit every time.

As for trying to make a living at poker, it probably does have at least one positive factor for the adrenaline-addicted. It's probably more fun than that other form of legalized gambling that was so popular for a while - day-trading in the stock markets. ;)

[general_re]

In Keno, you hit 20 of 20 for a hundred grand...talk about a 10 sigma event, no wonder its never happened.

I can't remember who said it, but I once heard Keno described as "gambling for people who have lost the will to live" ;)

[Mr. K]

"Our decision benefits 99.99 percent of our guests because it keeps high-paying machines in play and it does not force us to reduce the very generous comp, promotions and double-points programs that we offer,"Greektown spokesman Roger Martin told The Detroit News for a Monday story."

Yes, it benefits the guest who aren't winning... If you win, you will be ejected- NICE