Powell: Summer No Obstacle to Fighting Iraq

Reuters via Yahoo! ^ | November 21, 2002 | Reuters

[Momaw Nadon]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States could fight Iraq in the summer, especially in the cool of the night, if Iraqi President Saddam Hussein (news - web sites) waits until the winter passes and then obstructs U.N. weapons inspections, Secretary of State Colin Powell said on Thursday.

Powell told CBS television in an interview that the winter was the ideal time for a military operation but the United States should not be bound by any calendar.

"Many battles have been fought in the heat of summer, and the United States armed forces are very effective at night, when it is much cooler," Powell said.

"So if Saddam Hussein or anyone else thinks that once this ideal window passes they are safe for another year I suggest that may be false hope," he added.

The conventional wisdom in Washington has been that the United States would prefer any military operation to take place well before the heat of summer, which makes it difficult for U.S. troops to operate in the clumsy suits they might wear to protect themselves against chemical or biological weapons.

In the 1991 war with Iraq over Kuwait, the United States fought from mid-January to the end of February. U.S. generals had worried that any delay would have complicated the war.

Powell, speaking from the Czech capital Prague, said the United States was not seeking war anyway, provided Saddam cooperates with the U.N. weapons inspectors, as required in a U.N. resolution passed on Nov. 8.

The next test for Iraq comes on Dec. 8, the deadline for giving the United Nations a declaration of any nuclear, chemical and biological weapons programs it may possess.

President Bush said on Wednesday that Saddam would be entering his "final stage" if he says in the declaration that he has no such weapons.

Other members of the Security Council say that a false declaration alone would not justify war.

Powell said: "I don't think that any of us have any illusions about what he will put in his declaration on the 8th of December or whether he'll try to deceive the inspectors."

"If the declaration is patently false and everybody can see it, if he does not let the inspectors do their job, and he reverts to his ... previous pattern, then the president is fully ready to take the necessary step, which is military force," the secretary of state added.

In a separate interview with NBC News on Thursday, Powell said that a false declaration by Iraq on Dec. 8 would be "a big signal to the international community as to what we might have to do in the future."

POWELL DEFENDS U.S. MIDEAST EFFORTS

Powell defended the Bush administration's attempts to mediate in the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, denying that its Middle East policy was a failure.

He told CBS: "The Bush administration cannot solve this problem in and of itself. It's going to take others to come to the table and try to solve this problem."

"It's going to take a commitment on the part of the Palestinian leadership to end terror attacks. It's going to take a commitment on the part of the Israeli government to demonstrate to the Palestinian people that they are committed to a Palestinian state," he said.

The United States has put its diplomatic efforts into a Middle East peace plan, known as the "road map," which remains under discussion with three other mediators -- the European Union, Russia and the United Nations.

But Israel told the United States on Wednesday that work on the plan should wait until after Israeli elections in January.

The violence continued on Thursday when a Palestinian suicide bomber killed 11 people on a Jerusalem bus.

Powell said: "We're not going to give up trying. ... Everything's a failure until suddenly one day it produces a success. But we're going to keep working on it."

[Momaw Nadon]

FYI and discussion

[LibKill]

Our riflemen will always shoot their butts off.

They are "Men for All Seasons".

I know. I was one of them when I was young.

[Mixer]

I doubt GWB will have the patience to wait that long. If Sadaam messes up before or on the Dec 8th deadline we can almost surely see the war begin before the new year.

[Argus]

I prefer the President's original formulation: "We shall deal with our enemies at a time of our choosing." (a paraphrase)

[umgud]

I know it gets very hot in Iraq in the summer, but how cold does it get in the winter? I've done time in chem suits (most of which don't breathe) and they are almost unbearable in the heat of summer for extended periods and can also be uncomfortable in very cold climates, which I doubt describes Iraq.

[Momaw Nadon]

Attack on Iraq Betting Pool

[Dog Gone]

Bush wants to send the signal to Saddam that stalling for a few weeks won't stop us. Hence, this statement.

[Common Tator]

It is time for the FOG of war to set in. It is getting very foggy.

Every memeber of the Bush administration including President Bush is engaged in keeping Saddam from knowing what is coming.

It is a simple strategy. Bush talks tough and every one under him talks soft. He has been doing that and having his staff act like that ever since the start of the talk about taking down Saddam. The obvious object is to get Saddam thinking he can fake his way throught it one more time.

Just remember we will find out when we are going to attack Saddam shortly after Saddam finds out.

That is the only way we can attain surprise. Surprise is the most important asset in war. Just go back and read our newspapers in the month before D day in world War II.

[Once-Ler]

SOP for Bush has been to analyze a problem, decide on a course of action, announce what he would do, and then wait for people to beg him to implement it.
As you pointed out, Bush knew all along that he would have to explain Iraq to congress, America, and the world.
Bush waited until the media and ‘rats demanded he explain it to congress.
Then he waited for them to demand he explain it to America.
Then he waited for them to demand he explain it to the un.
Republicans are already demanding we do Iraq.

Of course Bush and our military planned out long ago the optimal timeframe for the launch of attacks.
So if it was decided Jan 15th was best...it will be Jan 15th regardless of conflicting political concerns.
But if March is just as good as January, and Bush stays true to form he will wait for the media-‘rats to demand he start the war, and not a minute sooner.

[samtheman]

No matter how he spins it, winter is better.

[JennysCool]

Let's see ... We were told to fear the "brutal Afghan winter," now it appears we must dread the "brutal Iraqi summer." Just a good thing our first line of defense isn't the journalists.

[defenderSD]

I think Powell's statement is also an indication that we have great confidence in our ability to capture and destroy Iraq's chemical and biological weapons before a major ground invasion begins. The chem and bio weapons will be destroyed by air power or captured by special forces backed by overwhelming air power. Those early missions could be done at night in the Spring. After the chem/bio weapons are gone, our soldiers won't be wearing chem suits and the heat won't matter that much. I also get a sense that Bush & Powell are expecting a large number of Iraqi defections. Perhaps the CIA is already distributing some cash inside the Iraqi army. I've read some reports about the CIA making a lot of "deals with Iraqis in the Basra region." ("Cash is king", all over the world.)

[Stavka2]

Old Arab saying: When Allah created Hell, he wasn't satisfied, that's when he created Mesopatamia.

[Stavka2]

	Iraq Climate
	Iraq is characterized by continental areas and semi- tropic climate, relatively influenced by Mediterranean climate. The atmosphere of this climate is hot, it might be (50) c. Thats approx: 122 degree F...most computerized equipment will fail around 100 degrees without adequet cooling...which eats up fuel. Humans will fail too..especially in a chem suit which ups your body temp another 10 to 15 degrees and a flack vest adds about 10 more degrees and that's if you're standing still. Freezing may appear in the mountainous area, where temperature may be (-18) c This is about 18 degrees F...not so bad.. Rain falls mainly during winter, spring, ranging (40-1000) mm annually. While 70% of Iraq areas receive only 200 mm of rain falls or less. Iraq can be divided into four main parts according to the rain:-   Plains (area between two rivers, at the middle and south of the country) the rain ranging (100-200) mm annually in the area. Mound (in the southern and western area) the average rain is about (100) mm annually or less. The waved area (in the north) the average rain fall (200-500)mm annually . Mountain area (north eastern area) the average rain ranges between (1000-1300) mm annually. To plant in these areas, the average and the dates of rain must be considered to the irrigation of plants. During the moderate period of the year, the tropic polar and nautical polar winds prevails during the cold winter period, the climate in summer is dry and hot. The moist reaches its minimumý during summer. The dry winds increase the vapor speed, and the winter season is relatively short especially on the plains. The north western winds prevail on the plains, while the western winds prevail on the mountain . The climate is characterized by dusty storms which frequently occur in the moderate and hot period of the year in all country, especially in the middle and southern areas.

[Mixer]

GW is not going to wait any longer. He has done the right thing here and when he gives the orders to let the dogs out there won't be a person that can, in their hearts, say he didn't do it by the book.

[The Great Satan]

We won't have anthrax vaccine for our civilian population until late 2003 at the earliest, ergo we won't be going head-to-head with Saddam until probably about six months before the next Presidential election. Military action which does not directly threaten Saddam's life or hold on power are possible before then, even including land invasions to take territory in the North and South No-Fly zones. However, we are not going to put him on the spot until his ultimate revenge can be blunted. The letters sent to Daschle et al after Saddam's destruction of the WTC last year represent a credible threat to kill millions of people and inflict the total economic loss of the major cities of the US and its allies. Bush understands this -- hence the tripartate stall: the stall on identifying the source of the anthrax; the stall on the Atta-al Ani connection; and the stall on military action to enforce regime change. Powell's comments fit within the general rubric of spinning things out. The subtext is, don't expect military action any time soon.

[Mitchell]

We won't have anthrax vaccine for our civilian population until late 2003 at the earliest

Where does this time estimate come from? I thought it was going to be sooner than that.

[Mitchell]

and the stall on military action to enforce regime change

Regime change isn't really the point, even though that was the phrase in vogue for a while. Notice how lately the focus has instead been on the disarming of Iraq.

The media have generally been interpreting this as a tactical retreat in Pres. Bush's position, but that is not correct. What the U.S. needs to do is remove (or mitigate to whatever extent possible) the danger of the covert delivery of WMD. Regime change without elimination of WMD abilities would be pointless. On the other hand, elimination of WMD without regime change (hypothetically, since it's hard offhand to see how this could happen) would be acceptable, even though we wouldn't be happy about Saddam staying in power.

Other than that, I agree with the general assessment. One interesting question, however, is the possibility that Iraq will engage in a pre-emptive attack before we are ready.