"Republican Senate - Republican House" prices JUMP in Iowa futures markets in the last 15 minutes!

Iowa Electronic Markets ^ | 11/05/02 | Iowa Electronic Markets

[IMRight]

See link above for latest market quotes.

Maybe someone can bring the chart into the thread for me?

[IMRight]

In the last fifteen minutes the predicted chances of a Republican Senate (Defined as 51 votes) has jumped from the mid twenties to forty percent.

What news caused this?

[fuente]

Maybe Florida. Looks like 65/35 straight ticket vote with 6% in

[goldstategop]

Real people are voting where their money is. Its a far more reliable indicator of trends than polls where people tell pollsters what they think the pollsters want to hear from them. The Iowa futures markets price jump in the last 15 minutes means investors are expecting very very very good news tonight. It looks like we will have a Republican Congress in our future next year!!!

[Asclepius]

What news caused this?

Cocktail hour. After-dinner brandy and cigars. Crystal meth and sitcoms. It's all about timing when tracking trends.

[Molly Pitcher]

FYI!

[Pontiac]

It looks like we will have a Republican Congress in our future next year!!!

From your keyboard to God’s ear.

[IMRight]

RH-RS numbers now up to 44% (I think that's the highest they've been all year) an rising!

Factor in a 10-20% chance of a single seat gain (which would be RH-NS) and we're now predicting a likely Republican Senate?

[goldstategop]

Hehehe. Money talks my friends and the markets have decided to write off Dick "Poco Loco" Gephardt and Tommy Daschund. I mean it all makes perfect sense - who in their right mind wants to invest in LOOOOSERS? No wonder the Iowa future market prices took a jump at the prospect of GOP sweep tonight.

[jwalsh07]

Check this out!

[Bogey78O]

Just voted in Covington Louisiana. It's a major Republican area and I know when I went in there the rolls were about 50% full with a nice line.

Also the David Tyree show (local Libertarian/large conservative following) had his listeners reporting heavy turnout as well.

Great news in Louisiana.

[billybudd]

The total value of the market is $20,000. It has no predictive power, because it is either a) based on a microscopic sample or b) on petty $1 or $5 bets or c) both. This "market" is not the same as the NYSE or NASDAQ, which have valuations in the trillions of dollars and represent knowledge and decisions of millions of people.

[IMRight]

Yes, but the polls are essentialy closed in many of the important races, so there's no "push" value of investing at this point in the day. This is entirely where the investors expect the market to go, and it moved pretty suddenly (take a look at previous races and you'll se a good indicator).

Also, read it again. I think you'll find it's worth more than $20,000. Remember, this is a "futures" market. I suspect that each of those 20,000 contracts is for more than one "share"

[relee]

Crystal meth and sitcoms

LOL!

[Michael Barnes]

Crystal meth and sitcoms

There's an ugly thought...

[Nonfaction]

No, it's $20,000. 20,000 bundles are in circulation, and each is worth $1 at settlement.

This is obviously a very illiquid market. Prices are all over the place, and bid/ask spreads are huge.

For what it's worth, as of 19:45 CST, the market is estimating the probability of at least 51 Republican seats in the Senate at between 18% (bid) and 41% (offer).

[jrushing]

Seems La voted to bump Mary. Hopefully she is in a runoff??
I voted in Covington this morning & it was too early to know about the polls. I hope we voted her into a runoff.
Love,
jer

[Born to be Wild]

Market Quotes: Cong02

Quotes current as of 20:00:03 CST, Tuesday, November 05, 2002.

Symbol	Bid	Ask	Last	Low	High	Average
RH_RS	0.210	0.376	0.200	0.200	0.439	0.298
RH_NS	0.601	0.819	0.700	0.481	0.849	0.603
NH_RS	0.007	0.009	0.006	0.006	0.033	0.018
NH_NS	0.021	0.090	0.006	0.005	0.149	0.106

[IMRight]

Sorry for the delay in responding, I thought I posted this a couple hours ago, then I lost FR. Looks like you guys were right. Sorry for the miss-information. The IOWA markets are not irrelevant, however. At some point over the next couple days (hopefully tonight), one of those contracts is going to go to 1$. It isn't going to happen in a ten minute span, it will build as the winner becomes more and more obvious and they run out of people willing to sell that contract for <1$. So strong upward moves in a contract could indicate the beggining of that move.

Since I posted to you, the RH-RS number has fluctuated, but is currently at 79%. It's looking pretty good.

Of course, with Republicans winning NH & GA (and holding NC/SC), it looks good in the "real world" as well. :-)

FReegards!

[billybudd]

Yes, now RH_RS looks damn good. I'd like to buy a few shares at the price it was a couple of days ago. The fact that RH_RS is having a strong upward move indicates that the market is not predictive. If the market was predictive, the prices should have remained relatively constant.