Perry ahead in new poll
Posted on 11/02/2002 8:49:42 PM PST by MeekOneGOP
Perry ahead in new poll
Sanchez says survey fails to consider huge get-out-the vote drive
11/03/2002
As the candidates for governor scoured the state for votes Saturday, a new poll gives Republican Rick Perry a comfortable lead in the final days of a bitter and costly race.
Mr. Perry is ahead of Democratic challenger Tony Sanchez 50 percent to 38 percent, according to The Dallas Morning News poll of likely voters.
Mr. Sanchez has moved slightly closer since the last survey two weeks ago but still trails the governor by a margin that pollsters say will be tough to overcome.
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In the survey, Mr. Perry leads in all regions of the state except South Texas, has rolled up the bulk of the support from Republicans and splits independents.
"Sanchez would have to win independents outright to win," Ms. Weprin said.
The Democrat political blueprint depends on a record turnout by minority voters energized by the party's racially diverse ticket, coupled with a good showing among moderate independent voters who traditionally decide elections.
Different ways
Each man stumped Saturday in markedly different ways - the Democrat delivering a populist message in minority neighborhoods and the Republican thanking backers in Lubbock for skipping the first day of hunting season to show support for him.
At stops in the GOP-rich High Plains, Mr. Perry warned against overconfidence.
"Elections have been lost because people thought they had them won," he said in an interview in Amarillo.
"I will celebrate after the election is declared a victory, not before. I've seen too many football games lost in the fourth quarter because they played prevent defense. We're going to play offense until the last vote is cast."
Mr. Sanchez said the survey fails to capture the effects of a massive, largely self-funded get-out-the-vote drive, which he predicted will yield "historic" results.
"The polls are not taking into account the hundreds of thousands of new voters with no voting history," said Mr. Sanchez, who has put $60 million of his own money into a contest that has shattered all state spending records.
"They're not taking into account the turnout, which is going to be record setting," he said.
Covers TV ad
The poll covered a period in which both campaigns lavished the airways with millions of dollars in TV attacks.
Before turning to positive commercials in the campaign's final days, Mr. Perry aired a spot linking his opponent to drug dealers who committed murder. Mr. Sanchez responded with an ad accusing the governor exploiting the death of a drug enforcement agent.
In The News survey, two third of those interviewed said the Perry drug dealer ad made no difference in how they were going to vote.
Blum & Weprin Associates Inc. of New York conducted the telephone poll of 1,002 likely voters Tuesday-Friday. It's margin of error is 3 percentage points, meaning each candidate's total can vary that much in either direction.
Among other findings:
Mr. Perry has the support of two-thirds of white voters, one-fifth of Hispanics and about one in 10 blacks.
Mr. Sanchez, a Laredo oilman and banker who would become Texas' first Hispanic governor, is the clear favorite among minorities.
Blacks and Hispanics who earlier were undecided have begun moving to Mr. Sanchez, but he is only managing to attract only about a quarter of white voters.
There's a gender gap, with nearly 60 percent of men backing Mr. Perry and 34 percent for Mr. Sanchez. Women are divided almost equally between the two candidates.
Hispanic turnout
Pollster Micheline Blum said she expects a large number of minorities will go to the polls, as Democrats promise.
"We do expect a higher Hispanic turnout than has been true in the past, but an awful lot of that is because there are more Hispanic registered voters now in Texas than there have ever been before," she said. "What we're not seeing is the level of enthusiasm that they really need."
With the election in three days, Mr. Sanchez campaigned mostly before black and Hispanic audiences Saturday, accusing the GOP of doing to little to help poor people and minorities.
"If you want to vote Republican, that means you want to keep seeing things the way they are now," he told supporters in Houston.
"We want the government of Texas to look like Texas - all of Texas," he said at another stop. "They are a party that takes care of the rich and powerful only."
His day began at a meeting of black women ministers, where he was introduced by state Rep. Senfronia Thompson, D-Houston.
"We have a president whose popularity has been confirmed by Osama Bin Laden," said Ms. Thompson, who also challenged the legitimacy of Mr. Bush's election to the White House.
Mr. Sanchez, who gave more than $300,000 to the Mr. Bush's gubernatorial and presidential campaigns, endorsed her criticism as "certainly different. And it was true."
Afterward, he stood in the bed of a pickup, using a bullhorn to give a pep talk to van loads of workers and volunteers.
"Campaigning time, as all of you know, is almost over. It's now your time. The responsibility is now on your shoulders," he said.
In Lubbock, Mr. Perry told backers he knew of their sacrifice in choosing to attend a Saturday morning rally on the Texas Tech campus.
"It's the first day of hunting season," he said.
Mr. Perry said that even though he's been outspent more than 2 to 1 in a race with a price tag exceeding $88 million, he will prevail.
"It's been an expensive campaign for Mr. Sanchez," he said of his rival's deep pockets. "You may be able to do that in New York City, but you can't do that in Texas."
E-mail wslater@dallasnews.com and pslover@dallasnews.com
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| Likely voters' picks if the gubernatorial election were held today for:
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| Republican Rick Perry | 50% | ||||
| Democrat Tony Sanchez | 38% | ||||
| Other/Undecided | 12% | ||||
| Voter support for the candidates for governor: | |||||
| Male | Female
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White | Black | Hispanic
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| Perry
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58% | 43% | 64% | 13% | 22% |
| Sanchez
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34% | 42% | 26% | 71% | 63% |
| Other/Undecided | 8% | 15% | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| ABOUT THE POLL: Telephone poll Tuesday-Friday of 1,002 likely voters. Results may not equal 100 percent because of rounding. Margin of error: plus or minus 3 percentage points, meaning the totals for each candidate can vary that much in either direction. | |||||
Go Texas GOP, and Let's Take Back the Senate !!
Hey Texas locals, what is the truth? Some are saying that there is record early rat voting, this article says there is not massive hispanic turnout.
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