Posted on 10/21/2002 12:00:23 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - With the election campaign entering its final two weeks, Democrats need a jolt of momentum to help them reclaim the House of Representatives from Republicans -- and so far they haven't found it.
House Republicans are still favored to hold their six-vote margin of power over Democrats, who are hoping to shift the tide with a late-breaking wave of voter frustration over the economy or a strong get-out-the-vote effort.
But analysts said the political landscape is heavily stacked for Republicans, with Democrats in desperate need of a near-sweep of the dozen or so races that are still too close to call.
"The Democrats need a big burst of wind and it just doesn't seem to be out there," said Amy Walter, a House analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. "They have to protect all of their seats and then go out and win some from Republicans."
Democrats have been unable to cash in on what polls show is widespread anxiety about the economy and turn the national debate to their bread-and-butter issues of jobs, Social Security and health care.
As a result, Republicans hope to defy history. Only three times in the last 100 years -- most recently during the impeachment year of 1998 -- has the party in power in the White House gained seats in mid-term elections.
"I think we're going to see history made again," said Rep. Tom Davis of Virginia, who heads the Republican House campaign committee. "Republicans actually have an opportunity to pick up seats in the House."
But in a campaign year that has routinely defied conventional wisdom -- and when the battle for Senate control is so close and unpredictable no one ventures a plausible prediction on the outcome -- Democrats see plenty of opportunity for an upset.
"These races are very, very close," said Rep. Nita Lowey of New York, chairwoman of the House Democratic campaign committee. With about three dozen competitive races remaining, including the dozen or so considered true toss-ups, she said: "We're optimistic."
Both parties have a couple of endangered incumbents -- Maryland's Connie Morella and Iowa's Jim Leach for Republicans, Minnesota's Bill Luther and Florida's Karen Thurman for Democrats.
But Republicans appear to be in slightly better shape in the four incumbent matchups created by redistricting. In Connecticut, Republican Nancy Johnson has opened up a big lead on Democrat Jim Maloney. In Mississippi, polls show Republican Chip Pickering ahead of Democrat Ronnie Shows.
Two other races among incumbents are close. In Illinois, Republican John Shimkus might have a slight edge on Democrat David Phelps, while in Pennsylvania national Republicans are trying to ride to the rescue of George Gekas, in a tight battle with Democrat Tim Holden.
TASK BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT
If Republicans can win three of those four or even sweep them, the Democratic task would become even more difficult.
The number of competitive races was reduced this year by redistricting, which allowed politicians in many states to redraw boundary lines to protect incumbents. That process and a rash of late primaries meant some House races have just started to heat up, Walter said.
Davis said House Republicans are profiting from the popularity of President Bush, who still hovers in the middle 60s in public opinion polls. Davis said Bush carried 27 of this year's 44 most competitive districts during the 2000 presidential election campaign.
But Lowey said Democrats would benefit from a strong focus on helping those hurt by a weak economy and a Republican fondness for corporate interests -- what she calls "Ritz Carlton vs. Ritz crackers."
Half of the top 40 most economically distressed metro regions are in competitive House districts, she said, giving Democrats an edge.
Walter said Democrats need to pick up enough momentum to shift some of the second-tier races that are currently leaning toward Republicans their way, and "it's hard to see that happening right now."
"It's a very small playing field."
But most of the elections in the last decade have seen unpredicted surges in the final 10 days of the campaign, analysts said, including the 2000 election that saw Democrats win four Senate seats against all predictions and Al Gore score a win in the popular vote against Bush despite trailing in most polls going into the final weekend.
"It's a very, very difficult climb for Democrats," said Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia. "Is it possible Democrats could win? Sure, strange things happen."
They sure do. Especially during and after voting at Rat controlled polling places.
It's good to see that Rep. Davis took time out of his busy schedule of bad-mouthing Republicans to say something positive for once.
The Democrat is, as usual, lying. The two best independent experts, Charlie Cook and Stuart Rothenberg, agreed four weeks ago that 20 races were then in play. A dozen is a correct number to use now.
To retake the House by a margin of just one seat, the Democrats need to gsin eight seats. Only ten, eleven or twelve out of twelve will give the Democrats the necessaty eight seats. The article hints at this, with the words "near sweep" of those races. Perhaps the article was not explicit because neither the writer nor his editor want to state in clear language just how desparate the Democrat position is, in the House.
I stand by my prediction, made on FR almost a year ago, and printed in front of God and everybody in the American Academy of Actuaries magazine two months ago -- Republicans hold the House and gain 5-7 seats. See the second link, below.
Congressman Billybob
Investigation now underway in SD over some of these "opportunities."
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