GOP leading in top two races - Texas Senate and Governor Races

The Dallas Morning News ^ | October 20, 2002 | By WAYNE SLATER / The Dallas Morning News

[MeekOneGOP]

GOP leading in top two races

10/20/2002

By WAYNE SLATER / The Dallas Morning News

AUSTIN - Republicans seeking the state's top offices hold a double-digit lead over their Democratic opponents, but undecided voters still could narrow the gap with less than three weeks until Election Day.

Gov. Rick Perry is favored by 50 percent of likely voters over Laredo businessman Tony Sanchez, backed by 35 percent in the latest poll by The Dallas Morning News.

In the Senate race, Republican John Cornyn leads former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk by 10 points.

The Democrats' best chance in the Nov. 5 election is former Comptroller John Sharp, locked in a dead heat with GOP Land Commissioner David Dewhurst.

By the Numbers

	Voter support for governor, senate
	Voter support for lt. governor, attorney general
	Breakdown by race, gender

The attorney general's race also is close, with Republican Greg Abbott leading Democrat Kirk Watson by 6 percentage points, but more than a quarter of likely voters are undecided.

"It's a good time to be a Republican running for office in Texas," said pollster Micheline Blum.

"What's happened in Texas is that almost half of all likely voters think of themselves now as Republicans," she said. "So you can't win anymore with just the Democrats and a chunk of the independents."

Part of the Democratic political blueprint is to boost turnout among minority voters with a historic ticket. Mr. Kirk would be the first black U.S. senator from the South since Reconstruction, and Mr. Sanchez would be the state's first Hispanic governor.

Coupled with Mr. Sanchez's deep pockets - $54 million of his own money already spent - Democrat leaders hope to energize voters and get them to the polls in record numbers.

Ms. Blum and colleague Julie Weprin said their survey suggests little evidence that the so-called dream team ticket has kindled sufficient enthusiasm to offset its lagging support among whites.

"That's obviously a real blow to Sanchez," Ms. Blum said. "He needs to be taking the overwhelming number of Hispanic votes. Plus he needs the enthusiasm of people getting out in droves to help him do well. And we don't see either one."

She said Mr. Kirk is doing far better among blacks than Hispanics.

"The problem is there isn't a black-Hispanic coalition," she said. "He's not getting anywhere near as much of the Hispanic vote as one might have expected or that he needs to get."

With three weeks to go, the GOP leads could dwindle as voters who say they're still undecided - especially minorities who likely would flow to the Sanchez and Kirk camps - make a decision.

For example, in the governor's race, 21 percent of black voters and 18 percent of Hispanics are undecided. By comparison, only one in 10 white voters has not picked a candidate.

If the undecided voters cast their ballots overwhelmingly for Democrats, the margins would narrow for Mr. Sanchez and Mr. Kirk. But there still wouldn't be enough votes to win without a record-breaking turnout among minorities, the pollsters said.

"Sanchez needs all the undecideds, plus at this point he needs to take a vote away from Perry," Ms. Weprin said. "Perry has his 50 percent."

"Kirk is closer," said Ms. Blum.

The poll, conducted Sunday through Thursday by Blum & Weprin Associates Inc. of New York, interviewed 953 likely voters by telephone. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points, meaning the total for each candidate can vary that much in either direction.

The candidates offered predictably different views of the survey results, Republicans casting them as consistent with their own polling and Democrats dismissing them as flawed.

"This poll, like most public polls, is wrong," said Sanchez spokesman Mark Sanders. He said pollsters are underrepresenting minorities and voter enthusiasm.

"We show this a very, very, very close race," he said.

Ray Sullivan, a Perry spokesman, said the survey mirrors "virtually every independent public poll and is a strong endorsement of Gov. Perry's leadership record."

Cornyn spokesman Dave Beckwith said he's not surprised his candidate is ahead, and he predicted the lead would grow.

Kirk spokesman Justin Lonon said, "There will be a lot of polls between now and Election Day. This will be a close, competitive race, and we look forward to being successful on Election Day."

Mixed results

Among the poll's findings:

Voters are divided over which gubernatorial candidate is better equipped to rein in soaring insurance rates, a cornerstone of Mr. Sanchez's campaign. Of likely voters, 37 percent say Mr. Perry would do a better job, 33 percent pick Mr. Sanchez.

Although Mr. Cornyn, the state attorney general, has touted his support of President Bush, 51 percent of voters say it would not be a factor in their decision.

In a contest marked by millions of dollars of attack ads on television, voters say Mr. Sanchez is running a more negative campaign. According to the survey, 37 percent said Mr. Sanchez was the nastiest, 26 percent said Mr. Perry and 22 percent said they were equally to blame.

Mr. Cornyn and Mr. Kirk have maintained a relatively high positive rating among voters, but Mr. Perry's approval has fallen over the last seven months of the acrimonious campaign. About 57 percent give Mr. Perry a favorable rating compared with 36 percent for Mr. Sanchez.

"Sanchez has got a big problem," Ms. Blum said. "It's so partisan. While Democrats and independents think more favorably of Sanchez, he gets a 17 percent favorable among Republicans."

'Razor-thin' margins

The contest for lieutenant governor is so close either candidate would win, the pollsters said.

"It's razor-thin," Ms. Blum said. "Sharp does well among many more groups than the other Democrats running in any of the other contests."

Even among Republicans, Mr. Sharp gets a relatively high one-fifth of the vote, the survey shows.

"If Sanchez can pull out more Hispanic votes, it helps Sharp more than anybody," she said. "If there's a big Hispanic turnout, it might not put Sanchez over the top, but it could put Sharp over."

Kelly Fero, a Sharp spokesman, said the campaign's polling shows the Democrat with a lead of five to six points over Mr. Dewhurst.

But Nick Voinis of the Dewhurst campaign predicted victory, saying, "The only poll that really matters is on Nov. 5."

The race for attorney general between Mr. Abbott, a former Supreme Court justice, and Mr. Watson, a former Austin mayor, has the most undecided voters.

The pollster said that because of the lack of familiarity with these office-seekers, party identification is the key factor, with independents split and up for grabs.

Staff writer George Kuempel contributed to this report.

E-mail wslater@dallasnews.com

---

Online at: http://www.dallasnews.com/latestnews/stories/102002dntexdmnpoll.3b1f5.html

[Holden Magroin]

Once Sanchez and Kirk start playing the race card, things will change.

[ForGod'sSake]

If the undecided voters cast their ballots overwhelmingly for Democrats, the margins would narrow for Mr. Sanchez and Mr. Kirk.

This sounds like wishful thinking on the reporter's part. Never happen! Most everything I've read indicates pre-election undecideds typically trend conservative when they do finally make up their minds.

"This poll, like most public polls, is wrong," said Sanchez spokesman Mark Sanders. He said pollsters are underrepresenting minorities and voter enthusiasm.

"We show this a very, very, very close race," he said.

I bet. Yo mr. Sanchez, can you say denial???

FGS

[Princeliberty]

No, one the reasons Sanchez and Kirk are losing
is the fact they have run racist campaigns esp.
that loathsome Sanchez who has more business
being in a jail cell than being in the
Governor's mansion.

[KQQL]

I disagree with you.
The hispanic turnout will not be that great..
African American turnout will be excellent
Morales screwed Tony and maybe Sharp too.

I think Dewhurst might pull it off, because of the normal
or below normal hispanic turnout.
You are right the race is 50-50....
But I gave Dewhurst 50.5% chance of winning at this time.

[KQQL]

P.S:
Dallas News polls sucked during the primary and Blum & Weprin Associates Inc. of New York have approx 3%-4% RAt bias from what I can tell through the years.

At this stage the undecided have 50% chance of voting.

[KQQL]

P.S:
Dallas News polls sucked during the primary and Blum & Weprin Associates Inc. of New York have approx 3%-4% RAt bias from what I can tell through the years.

At this stage the undecided have 50% chance of voting.

[Tex_GOP_Cruz]

Morales screwed Tony and maybe Sharp too.
I agree with your turnout assessment, but I'm not sure the whole Morales thing will have much effect, though I wish it did. I think Dewhurst may win b/c lots of people vote straight ticket, at least in the urban counties. Early voting has already started here in Harris Co, so Dewhurst better have an ad blitz to counter potential crossovers, i.e., the Nolan Ryan effect.

[KQQL]

NOLAn is Super RHINo...
Screw him..and let him eat his advil...
Most people will vote down party line,
that;s why Dewhurst might get lucky

[MeekOneGOP]

Once Sanchez and Kirk start playing the race card, things will change.

Well, I haven't seen it from Sanchen yet. But kirk has already....

Ron Kirk, Texas Race-Baiter

At Hip-Hop Summit, Kirk pleads for generation to
vote - John Wiley Price attends Kirk campaign event

[Illbay]

This article downplays the importance of the Lt. Governor's race. In Texas, the Lt. Gov. is rightly called "the most powerful office in the state." He sets the legislative agenda and sees to it that the legislation he favors moves forward, and that which he does not, stalls.

The GOP has possibly blundered in nominating Dewhurst, who has ethical baggage and is not very likeable.

[Illbay]

You haven't been paying attention. That's ALL they've been doing for at least two weeks now.

[KQQL]

http://www.nbc5i.com/politics/1721236/detail.html

This poll mirrors NBC5 poll PArt2...

[LaGrone]

My wife and I plan on voting Monday in Georgetown, Tx; for all Republicans of course. I haven't voted for a Demonrat since 1976.

[Yankereb]

I've met David Dewrhurst. He is our land commissioner. He is very conservative and has done an excellent job as land commissioner. He has done a lot for the veterans of our state. He has opened 4 new vet's nursing homes, 4 new vet's cemetaries, and is in the process of opening 2 more nursing homes for Vet's. He has cut the pork out of this office. He will make an excellent Lt. Governor. Sharp is a liberal who when he was in office tried to enact a state income tax under another name. I wouldn't vote for Sharp on a bet.
Dewhurst is running a great campaign and will beat Sharp. Dewhurst is a conservative in the true sense of the word.
All you Texans out there-- get out and vote for him.

[Alissa]

I just voted a straight Rep ballot this morning!

[Yankereb]

Please don't insult Bob Bullock. He was an honorable man, and a conservative Democrat. He was nothing like John Sharp in anyway, shape or form. Sharp is a Liberal in every sense of the word. The two men have nothing in common except that they called themselves Democrats. Bob Bullock was a great supporter of George W. Bush, and his wife spoke at the Republican Convention supporting the nomination of G.W. Bob Bullock would have done it himself, but he died of cancer.

[Yankereb]

I respectfully disagree with your assessment of David Dewhurst, & Sharp. David Dewhurst grew up poor, on a farm. His dad died when he was about 3 and he was raised by his Mom. He is not a "rich" city boy. His is the American dream come true. He made his own way in this life. Sharp maybe a "good old boy" but he is still a Liberal whose only idea is to raise taxes, and spend it on more social programs which fail. Dewhurst is a true conservative, and has proved it as Texas Land Commissioner. I suggest you research who David Dewhurst is. You will like him.

[Tex_GOP_Cruz]

I think you misunderstood me. I do like Dewhurst and I will be voting for him enthusiastically. I was only pointing out the perception that comes across to voters who, unlike you and me, do not know who the candidates are. Remember, so much of politics is perception and media bites, unfortunately. Thanks for allowing me to make this clarification. :-)

[No dems 2002]

"This poll, like most public polls, is wrong," said Sanchez spokesman Mark Sanders. He said pollsters are underrepresenting minorities and voter enthusiasm.

"We show this a very, very, very close race," he said.

Hmmm. Interesting to note that the Blum and Weprin poll in April had Kirk leading Cornyn 43% to 39%. Now Kirk only gets 37%. Someone told me that one of the recent polls that gave Cornyn 54% had minority turnout quite large. Sanchez and Kirk know they're going to lose. Sanchez has made the big mistake of inadvertently projecting himself as a Hispanic running for office to oust the big bad white man, which, of course, alienates and scares off white voters. Kirk has made the big mistake of assuming that Hispanic voters who turn out for Sanchez will automatically vote for him. I used to live in California, and I know that Hispanics and blacks aren't exactly the best chummies, to say the least. So Kirk is whistling dixie if he thinks that all the Latinos are going to support him. In the last TX Senate race (Nov. 2000), the Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison took between 49 and 52% of the state's Latino vote, even outperforming President Bush. Republican Orlando Sanchez took the overwhelming majority of the Houston Hispanic vote in last year's mayoral race against incumbent dem Lee Brown, and the trend is there, especially in some of the the heavily Hispanic TX counties.

But just one message to TX Republicans: Don't be overconfident. At the beginning of this campaign, that what I thought was the big thing that could kill them, and it's still probably the only thing that could help Kirk and Sanchez. To be honest, the reason the "dream team" hasn't worked is because the GOP took their threat seriously.

[No dems 2002]

Congratulations!

Every time you skip voting for a democrat, you've done a good deed!