Election Time: What Are the Odds?

Wired ^ | 16 Oct 02 | Joanna Glasner

[white trash redneck]

People who criticize politicians for paying too much attention to the polls may have a point.

According to online wagering sites, would-be public servants could've predicted election outcomes a lot better by looking at the betting odds.

With the 2002 congressional election mere weeks away, campaign managers may heed that advice by perusing the Iowa Electronic Markets, one of the operations with the most experience processing wagers on U.S. voting results.

[white trash redneck]

What the gmablers say about the upcoming elections.

[goldstategop]

Its either a wash or a Republican Congress. Unless we're very lucky, the smart money says it'll be a wash.

[ffrancone]

If you read the detail on the site, it turns out that a Republican Senate = 51 R Senators or more. The 50=50 tie is not considered R control. This changes the odds a lot.

[goldstategop]

Bettors are going to want to play it safe. Its still too early to say how the election will all play out.

[ffrancone]

The only point of my earlier post is that what people are betting for there is not actually control of the Senate, under our constitution.

That said, it's shocking how accurate betting markets can be. Some years ago, I studied the stats on the football spread over a period of 18 years. The average of the spreads on games in that period is virtually equal to the average of the actual results of the games (less than 0.1 points difference). The best single predictor of game outcome among all available stats on prospective performance on Sunday is the betting spread. There's not even a close second.

[lds23]

It's usually a pretty good indicator, because, unlike politicians and phone interviewees, gamblers are willing to put their money where there mouth is.

[Cicero]

If it ends up 50-50, then it's hard to say what the outcome will be.

Lincoln Chaffee is probably too concerned for number one to switch. But the one situation that might tempt him would be a tied senate, when his vote would make all the difference and still leave him in the majority. If not, then Cheney would break the tie.

[itsahoot]

If it ends up 50-50, then it's hard to say what the outcome will be.

Not since that gutless wonder Trent Lott decided to share power with
Daschel, before Jeffords switched.