Friday, 10/11, Market WrapUp (No, Virginia, this isn’t the bottom.)

Financial Sense Online ^ | 10/11/2002 | James J. Puplava

[rohry]

"I think the same concerns about a vested interest in their advice apply to Merrill Lynch, Goldman-Sachs, and Solomon Barney Frank as well."

I still laugh whenever I see that reference to Solomon Barney Frank. It should go into the Hall of (In)Fame...

[rohry]

"The problem, imo, is that there are too many big players out there who will sell gold to keep the price down. The gold market is being manipulated in a big way."

The more I read your posts the more I agree with you...

"I feel sorry for people who buy into these web sites cries of doom and gloom and sell out at the bottom of a market and lock in their losses."

Oops, don't agree with that, however...

[Huck]

Well, my problem is plain ignorance. To compensate for it, I see things somewhat the way a rabbit does: everything looks like a predator. Skeptical to a fault, you might say.

So far, it looks as if I have done things properly considering my situation. Since 1999, I saved approximately 40% of my take home pay. That's not counting 401K, which got about 15% over that same time period. At the same time, I reduced all my debts to 0. When I talk to my friends and family, all the say is how the hell do you do it? My grandma told me to pay yourself first. Write yourself a check before you pay anyone else. And so, every payday, sort of as a ritual, I write myself a check for the predetermined amount and deposit it in my money market account. Simple.

I am closing on my first home this month, but I don't believe I have gotten sucked into the real estate bubble. It's a home way up in the northen tip of the state, and it really does appear to be a good value, or else I wouldn't have bought it. It's a 20 year mortgage with 20% down. 6% interest. So it's not a case of easy credit either. The mortgage payment will represent approx. 25% of my take home pay. I think I did ok.

My only remaining concern is liquidity. I am spending most of it to get this house. But I have a savings plan for the next two quarters which should get me back up to a good level of cash reserve(about 4 months income.) I am planning on making some life changes too. I am going to leave my job next year, around February, and start my own small business. It's going to be a microbusiness. Start up for less than 5K, with me as the sole employee. My company is downsizing and downsizing some more, and my department is not long for day, I don't believe. I prefer to be proactive about it, and anyway, I want to be my own boss, and so I will take my chances.

So I really haven't invested in the market at all, besides 401K, and there the company match was as much a rationale as anything else. I invested just enough to get the full benefit of that. I don't know why I am describing my situation online. I guess I am hoping for either a) validation or b) some good pointers. In the meantime, I'll keep on reading these reports.

[Always Right]

I have been reading these articles for quite a while now, and I really enjoy them. But am I the only one who perceives "Financial Sense Online" to be "We Tout Gold and Silver Online"?

I agree 100%. They should pay FreeRepublic for letting them advertise. Their reports are nothing more than sales pitches for gold. The market goes up = buy gold. The market goes down = buy even more gold.

[Huck]

To be honest, I am too dumb to know for sure. I just read through his storm series which seems rather substantive.

[Always Right]

I trust Bob Brinker more than these guys. All he sells is a newsletter. He goes back and forth from being bearish and bullish and has a much better track record.

[gabby hayes]

Will there ever be any accounting of monies expended in Phase One intervention? Do you also think there's any chance the PPT is guilty of illegal insider trading for colluding with, among others, major banksters?

[rohry]

"Well, my problem is plain ignorance."

I don't think so. After reading your investment situation it looks like you are right where I would love to be if I were your age. In fact, it took me 50 years to get to where you are in about half that time (I assume you are under 30)! I was in very poor fiscal shape when I was 30...

As Stonewalls says, Good Luck to you!

[Huck]

I'm actually 34. I was a drifter for a few years. I like to say I gave everyone a 7 year head start, just to make it fair ;-)

[rohry]

"Not trying to brag, just want to say today was predictable."

I worship you for even daring to play with the big boys in this market. I get my head all messed up just watching from the sidelines. You're my new guru...

[EVO X]

I was in very poor fiscal shape when I was 30...

I was debt free at 30, but didn't have any money. At 44 I can do a zero dump all and not worry about getting another job for a couple of years. I wouldn't even have to touch retirement funds.

[rohry]

"I agree 100%. They should pay FreeRepublic for letting them advertise. Their reports are nothing more than sales pitches for gold."

It just shows your ignorance when you post such statements. Anyone who has read a fraction of Puplava's prodigious writings recognizes that your assertion is laughable. Even the original poster of the statement that this is an ad for gold has retracted that statement (see #37).

By the way, I have no connection with Mr. Puplava, have never met him nor talked to him nor corresponded with him. I post this nightly because I believe it is the best free market based analysis of what is going on in the markets.

[rohry]

"I was debt free at 30, but didn't have any money."

I was debt free with no money until I was 27. Then I got married, had two kids, bought a home and proceeded to try to borrow my way to a great fortune...

[arete]

His writings have influenced my family's life considerably...

Mine too -- and I would like to publicly thank you for bringing them to my attention.

Richard W.

[rohry]

Your welcome! Good to have you back...

[rohry]

You're welcome (oops)...

[rohry]

"I trust Bob Brinker more than these guys...and has a much better track record."

I listened to Bob Brinker for quite a few years and got out of the market in January 2000 because of his call. But, did you know that he voted for Clinton twice and supported Bill Bradley for 2000. He's a liberal with some pro-business leanings.
As for his track record, what about his call for a big rise in the QQQs in the Fall of 2000? It never went higher and, in fact, went down (I think, I haven't paid that much attention) over 40%.

[arete]

I trust Bob Brinker more than these guys

I listen to Brinker whenever I can, but that is only because I'm an information junkie. Brinker is pro paper assets and against gold which makes me think that he's missing the big picture. I'll give him credit for not being a buy and holder but lately he has been telling people that it is too late to get out of the market even though there is significant risk of further deterioration of paper asset values. I figure that he has already cost people roughly an additional 20% on the downside with that bad advice over the last few months.

Richard W.

[arete]

Good to have you back...

Thanks. I was out of town for a week. Got back just in time to hit the monsoon a little north of Columbia on I77. It made the last 120 miles an interesting drive.

Richard W.

[EVO X]

I was debt free with no money until I was 27. Then I got married, had two kids, bought a home and proceeded to try to borrow my way to a great fortune...

Count your blessings. I grew up in a neighborhood were the Catholic families had 6 to 8 children.