Friday, 10/11, Market WrapUp (No, Virginia, this isn’t the bottom.)

Financial Sense Online ^ | 10/11/2002 | James J. Puplava

[imawit]

what ever happened to Tom Costello

He's there somewhere. I saw him last week behind a desk but had the mute on so I can only say what I saw.

[STONEWALLS]

as always, thanks Rohry!...

"There is a much higher percentage of novices in the market than at any point in history. In WW II a very small percentage of the public was in the stock market. Before the Gulf War there was a fraction of the people in the market than now. We are in uncharted territory..."

.....I agree....and not only is the territory uncharted but it has the potential to move with a speed that would have been unthinkable in the past.....

Good luck to everybody!

Stonewalls

[sourcery]

They exclude the "one time only" charges (which are occuring every quarter) to achieve their "better than expected earnings."

It should be pointed out that "one time charges" are included in last year's profits, when those are used to compute this year's gains relative to last year's. So the "one time charges" are added to the basis and removed from the current quote, making them look as good as possible. The effect can be quite dramatic.

[steveegg]

Looks like we're going to be "trick or treated" with another "happy days are here again" rally.

I'll take "trick" for 70 shares of Ford, Alex <VBG - as long as I can short them>

[steveegg]

If there's another 3 days of upside, I might believe that there's a rally worth noting. Of course, I'm expecting reality to start hitting on Monday, and by the end of next week, we'll be right back where we were on Wednesday.

[rohry]

"Having personally spoken with Jim many times I can tell you this he is a true "conservative" his passion for gold is based on Americas Founders trust in the noble metal...funny how so many never get this connection...gold = freedom?"

Good post... Thanks.....

[STONEWALLS]

"A new bull market in commodities from oil, grains to precious metals have just begun."

...hmm, grains.....I notice Deere and AGCO both up today on big volume.....this may be a reflection of rising grain prices and the new farm bill....

Good luck to everybody!

Stonewalls

[steveegg]

As a novice in a market (my only positions in the market are my various 401k fund options), I have to agree to a point. While this is technically uncharted territory, it's more a matter of scale than anything else. The unknown is the emotional factor that so many amateurs bring into the market (they're much more emotional than the "pros" that ran the maket before the mid-90s).

It's that overdose of emotion that'll either be the complete collapse or another miraculous recovery of the market. The question is whether the "can-do" attitude of the amateurs left in the market can overcome both the somewhat-negative news of the economy and the forces (read, leftist media and DemonRATs) that seek to drive the emotions off the cliff. Don't look at me to decipher it; I'm horrid at decoding the emotional :-)

[TheLion]

"Clashed"...me thinks you give me too much credit...no pun intended. I have read the aforementioned articles and have to say that he could be right. This opinion could have been compelling many times in our past history. The game may go on for years. Wonder how our expanding population and the fact that most employees don't work for major corporations but smaller businesses, factor into all of this. Also have to factor in the creativity of the same people who came up with the current schemes. In the short run, you may lose capital if you remain in a bond fund while interest rates rise....not if you stay until most notes mature. There have been many who have predicted the collapse of the US financial markets for years. It may indeed come to pass but as to when, no one knows.

[ninenot]

Well--I would like to see a rally in COPPER--which has been on a downtrend since about July. It's still a commodity, isn't it??

[Deuce]

Goodness CNBC was so excited about todays rally I think they had to break out the depends undergarments.

They realize that "selling the rally" in a bear market is the equivalent of "buying the dips" in a bull market. They have to sell the rally, in order to "sell the rally."

[Ken H]

I only know Puplava from the Market Wrapup threads, so I don't know his advice in years past. He has been pretty accurate for the last several months, at any rate.

I think the same concerns about a vested interest in their advice apply to Merrill Lynch, Goldman-Sachs, and Solomon Barney Frank as well.

[Southack]

"Of course, I'm expecting reality to start hitting on Monday, and by the end of next week, we'll be right back where we were on Wednesday."

I'm predicting a perfectly flat market for Monday (since that's probably a Columbus Day holiday off for traders, wink, wink)...

[imawit]

The unknown is the emotional factor that so many amateurs bring into the market (they're much more emotional than the "pros" that ran the maket before the mid-90s).

I've come to the conclusion that the emotional factor is a ploy employed by the big dogs to keep everyone in the dark to what is really going on and keep people guessing, pros and novices. That's not to say it doesn't have an effect but the principal purpose is to keep attention off of the facts and on to mystery.

I have picked stocks that are below this kind of radar yet high volume. To a large degree my pix are immune to the emotion and don't follow the indexes unless there is something major like today. But what happened today was discernable. My shorts were already covered and I took some great new ones. That were already earning at the mid day peaks.

Not trying to brag, just want to say today was predictable. I was amazed at the last half hour though.

[imawit]

gold = freedom

Talking about slavery, read this

http://www.huttoncommentaries.com/Other/MonetaryCrisis/upsetting_of_america.htm

[Huck]

I am halfway through the Storm series. Listen, you may ignore me, but don't do anything crazy like take me off the list. I read these wrap-ups daily and learn from them. Thanks. And yes, I can see that I was wrong about Mr. Puplava.

[STONEWALLS]

..."While this is technically uncharted territory, it's more a matter of scale than anything else."

...isn't that the truth.....time was, 200 million shares traded was a big day...now billion share days are routine..

Good luck to everybody!

Stonewalls

[STONEWALLS]

"Well--I would like to see a rally in COPPER--which has been on a downtrend since about July. It's still a commodity, isn't it??"

I wish you well with copper....anybody that can trade in commodities has more brains and courage than I have...

Stonewalls

[rohry]

"I am halfway through the Storm series. Listen, you may ignore me, but don't do anything crazy like take me off the list."

LOL! I'm impressed that you are that far along! I printed out the Storm Series a year ago and made everyone in my family read it...I guess that makes me a Storm Series Nazi (kind of like the Soup Nazi on Seinfeld).

So, I won't ignore you, but I'm very sensitive to people characterizing these mussings as shallow or "written by a Rat" or written by someone who wants to sell gold or silver. His writings have influenced my family's life considerably...

Thanks for your attention...