Friday, 10/11, Market WrapUp (No, Virginia, this isn’t the bottom.)

Financial Sense Online ^ | 10/11/2002 | James J. Puplava

[rohry]

To The Gold Community
from
James Sinclair

     The present reaction in gold and gold shares coming so soon on the heals of the June-September experience has caused many of you, most certainly those new to this field, significant discontent. I understand that. However, I stake my 43 years of experience and my hard won reputation on what I am about to say to you.

     Take heart. This decline is short-term and only a natural reaction in gold shares which will run its course on the downside, IMO, by October 19th to October 23rd. Many of these share will establish new highs thereafter. Four of the five required fundamentals are in for a long term gold bull market. I am convinced that the "5th Element," a long-term top in 30-year US Treasury bonds will join before much longer.

     IMO, having not acted to reduce your exposure by 1/3 on my 9/23 VIP on this site, you should hold your fully paid cash positions in gold equities. I say this because I believe it and I am concerned by your many messages to me seeking my help. My advice to you is my advice to myself.

Regards,

James E. Sinclair
October 10, 2002

[rohry]

Market WrapUp is delivered...

[RightWhale]

Looking at the last two days from the point of the war vote in Congress, the question is whether cries for war affect the market, and if so, how. Would the market respond upward or downward? Since it has been a while, 11 years since the Gulf War and 60 years since WW II, there isn't much data to go on.

The decision has been made, the direction is known. The market likes that. Doesn't mean the market likes war, just that it doesn't like uncertainty. We're all stepping a little more certainly today.

[arete]

Looks like we're going to be "trick or treated" with another "happy days are here again" rally.

Richard W.

[rohry]

"Looking at the last two days from the point of the war vote in Congress, the question is whether cries for war affect the market, and if so, how."

I don't think the war vote was a big factor in the last two day's rally.

"Since it has been a while, 11 years since the Gulf War and 60 years since WW II, there isn't much data to go on."

The data doesn't matter. There is a much higher percentage of novices in the market than at any point in history. In WW II a very small percentage of the public was in the stock market. Before the Gulf War there was a fraction of the people in the market than now. We are in uncharted territory...

[Huck]

I have been reading these articles for quite a while now, and I really enjoy them. But am I the only one who perceives "Financial Sense Online" to be "We Tout Gold and Silver Online"?

If there is one consistent theme over the months, it is that the worst is yet to come, and the smart thing to do is buy gold and silver. How long has this website been around? Are there examples of articles by Mr. Puplava in which he recommends NOT buying gold or silver? Just wondering.

[RightWhale]

I don't think the war vote was a big factor in the last two day's rally.

No, I don't think so, either. The effect, if any, of the war decision will be seen in the months ahead. Uncharted territory as you say.

[EVO X]

The data doesn't matter. There is a much higher percentage of novices in the market than at any point in history. In WW II a very small percentage of the public was in the stock market. Before the Gulf War there was a fraction of the people in the market than now. We are in uncharted territory...

I'd like to see some convergence towards a lack of volatility before I start gambling personal funds. We aren't anywhere near that.

[Cagey]

We are in uncharted territory...

That we are. There were a few solid and better than expected earnings reports in today and that helped. Wall Street has known for some time now that Congress was going to back the President, so I think that had nothing to do with the recent upward movement.

Those who have converted to cash recently may be getting a little antsy now and think about getting back in perhaps. We'll see soon enough.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

to be "We Tout Gold and Silver Online"?

That is the way I read it!

[rohry]

"I have been reading these articles for quite a while now, and I really enjoy them. But am I the only one who perceives "Financial Sense Online" to be "We Tout Gold and Silver Online"?

As I told someone last week, (The Lion) go to the site and research it yourself. Print out the Storm Series (over 100 pages) and see that Jim Puplava has a well-thought-out economic plan, not just "We Tout Gold and Silver Online."

After you read it I will address any questions that you have, until then I will ignore you (in a good way)...

[rohry]

"There were a few solid and better than expected earnings reports in today and that helped."

Have you researched these reports? Most of the current reports are not done by Generally Accepted (accounting) Principles. They exclude the "one time only" charges (which are occuring every quarter) to achieve their "better than expected earnings."

[TheLion]

The problem, imo, is that there are too many big players out there who will sell gold to keep the price down. The gold market is being manipulated in a big way. They may have more clout than the buyers of gold. I feel sorry for people who buy into these web sites cries of doom and gloom and sell out at the bottom of a market and lock in their losses. Should they go into gold, they might get hit with a double whammy, when it goes down. I think you are right on, about the pushing of gold by this site. No one has the edge on predicting markets. If they could be predicted, they wouldn't exist, because everyone would know the outcome.

[jwh_Denver]

*That is the way I read it!

Honestly, is there a better site for market commentary that includes the why's and therefore's of what the market is doing and where it is headed? I'm all ears.

[rohry]

"I feel sorry for people who buy into these web sites cries of doom and gloom and sell out at the bottom of a market and lock in their losses. Should they go into gold, they might get hit with a double whammy, when it goes down."

I guess that you didn't read The Storm Series that I asked you to read the last time we clashed. Too bad...

[teresat]

Goodness CNBC was so excited about todays rally I think they had to break out the depends undergarments.

[evaporation-plus]

Goodness CNBC was so excited about todays rally I think they had to break out the depends undergarments

Yes, mabye their ratings will start to come back with a New bull market........

[Irish Eyes]

I think that they were only excited about GE. Would be happy if they never mentioned GE again, BUT it will not happen.

[teresat]

Too bad there will be no new bull market...Hey does anyone know what ever happened to Tom Costello who used to report for them?

[imawit]

Looks like we're going to be "trick or treated" with another "happy days are here again" rally.

Yup. whether you long or short, short or long, now is the time to have fun.

I liked the part where Puplava says this is not a market for investing but a market for TA & Traders.