Posted on 10/02/2002 5:38:22 AM PDT by chemicalman
Batten down the hatches if you're in the path of this storm. Expected to be a Catagory 3 when it makes landfall.
Stay safe and dry!
Richard
Aerial reconnaissance data showed a fairly rapid central pressure fall...to about 954 mb just before 0600z...but a later dropsonde from a NOAA aircraft of 955 mb suggested that the central pressure had levelled. This is probably temporary...and some short-term fluctuations in strength are likely due to internal processes such as eyewalll replacement cycles. However meteorological conditions appear generally favorable for further intensification and Lili is forecast to become a category 3 hurricane later today. The big question is...just how strong Lili will be when it reaches the coast? Water vapor imagery shows some drier air over the western Gulf which could eventually be entrained into the circulation. The upper oceanic heat content is not as high over the northwest Gulf as it is where Lili is presently located...but the relatively fast motion of Lili could minimize the impact of the less favorable waters. However...the vertical shear should remain weak and there is strong upper-level outflow over the area. Given the current state of the science of intensity forecasting...we are forecasting the hurricane to maintain category 3 strength until it moves inland.
There has been a slight increase in forward speed...and lilis motion is now about 300/14. The hurricane continues to be guided by the steering flow on the southwest periphery of a deep-layer anticyclone. In a day or two...a large mid-latitude trough moving into the central U.S. Should erode the western portion of the anticylone somewhat. The net result should be a gradual turn of Lili toward the northwest...and north. After landfall...Lili should accelerate north-northeastward ahead of the trough. This official track forecast is very close to the previous one...and in excellent agreement with the consensus of the dynamical track guidance.
Forecaster Pasch
For later reading
Well, I might cancel the party if it get's to high Cat 3. Will probably join the rest of the clan at Dad's.
I also hope to give live updates as long as the phone lines hold out. I'm sure someone will start a thread tomorrow as it gets closer.
To all South Louisiana Freepers:
It's comin' right for us!
The hurricane and the cold front are going to collide and push the storm east. It's simply a matter of where, and even a couple hours difference either way could make a huge difference in the landfall location.
...Lili becomes major hurricane...continues northwestward toward the Gulf Coast...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from east of High Island Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi River.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Freeport Texas to High Island...and from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border...including New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.
At 10 am CDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Lili was located near latitude 24.8 north...longitude 88.9 west or about 365 miles south-southeast of New Orleans Louisiana.
Lili is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph...and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Reports from an Air Force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph...with higher gusts. This makes Lili a dangerous category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter is 953 mb...28.14 inches.
A storm surge of 8 to 12 feet above normal tide levels is likely near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast. This surge could spread well inland across the low-lying areas of the Hurricane Warning area.
Rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are possible along the track of Lili.
Repeating the 10 am CDT position...24.8 N... 88.9 W. Movement toward...northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds...120 mph. Minimum central pressure... 953 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 PM CDT.
sw
I'm very interested in this situation, for many reasons, not the least of which is the damage that occured from the 'tropical storm' that hit New Orleans last week.
I can't imagine what a Hurricane would do, considering all the new Beach Gulf front Condo construction in the last few years..uggh..albeit they are saying there isn't much rain with this one...:~)
sw
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.