Posted on 10/02/2002 5:36:03 AM PDT by BlackRazor
Poll: Pataki lead unchanged
Albany-- McCall unable to cut into double-digit gap month before election
By ELIZABETH BENJAMIN, Capitol bureau
First published: Wednesday, October 2, 2002
A statewide poll released Tuesday found Democratic gubernatorial hopeful H. Carl McCall has failed for three weeks to budge Republican Gov. George Pataki's double-digit lead.
With just over one month to Election Day, Marist College's Institute for Public Opinion found Pataki leading McCall by 16 points -- 48-32 -- among likely voters, with Independence candidate B. Thomas Golisano receiving 9 percent of the vote. Nine percent of the 463 likely voters questioned said they were undecided.
Pataki leads McCall statewide, the poll showed, including in heavily Democratic New York City, where he is ahead 6 points.
The results were basically unchanged from a Sept. 9 poll that had Pataki leading McCall 48-32 percent, 11 percent for Golisano and 7 percent undecided.
"It's uphill from here, there's no doubt," Marist pollster Lee Miringoff said of McCall's fight to unseat the governor.
McCall's camp portrayed the poll as demonstrating McCall is holding his own against the popular, well-financed governor. "Despite an assault of negative attacks -- five in six days -- Carl McCall's support has held firm and voters are now asking why, after eight years, Governor Pataki has nothing positive to say," said McCall's campaign manager, Allen Cappelli.
Pataki's campaign gleefully declared the poll foreshadows the demise of both McCall and Golisano on Nov. 5.
"This poll demonstrates that both the McCall and Golisano campaigns are stuck in the mud," said Pataki spokesman Michael McKeon.
Golisano's campaign had no comment.
Hank Sheinkopf, a veteran political consultant who until recently worked for McCall's campaign, said the poll demonstrates that Pataki's ads hit their mark.
"They obviously had an impact," Sheinkopf said. "They slowed his momentum and created negatives where there were none before. The problem for the McCall campaign is they have to find a way to get the momentum back, and they're running out of time."
Further complicating his campaign, McCall is under fire for writing two letters on official stationery to companies in which the state pension fund is heavily invested, seeking jobs for family members. McCall oversees the fund as state comptroller.
The Marist poll was finished Sept. 26 -- the day before the letter-writing story broke -- so it does not reflect fallout from the incident, which Republicans have dubbed "Lettergate" and insist could cost McCall points in the next poll.
Publicity over the letters, which McCall has defended, and his stagnation in the poll will likely hurt his fund-raising efforts, according to Democratic and Republican strategists. McCall has been trying to catch up to the more well-heeled Pataki since the Sept. 10 primary.
The candidates' latest financial filings with the state Board of Elections are due Friday. Pataki's aides have predicted he will have $10 million on hand. McCall had $2 million just after the primary. His aides have not revealed what his filing will show.
If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!
Sad thing is, Bill Clinton would probably win at a walk.
Note to Pataki: No matter how far you are ahead, do not let up your foot from McCall's neck. Do not worry about offending the black vote by winning too big. There is no such thing as winning too big. Grind McCall into the dust now and worry about patching things up with the black vote later.
With Golisano in the race, things are too unsettled. You may lose 20% of your support to Golisano on election day. You have to be up by that much and more.
You goal should be that McCall comes in third.
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