Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Hurricane Lili: Major Hurricane to threaten NW Gulf Coast.
NHC | NHC

Posted on 09/30/2002 8:07:02 AM PDT by dennis1x

Hurricane Lili Discussion Number 36

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 30, 2002

although flight-level winds do not quite support hurricane intensity...as the peak 850 mb wind reported by the reconnaissance aircraft was 75 kt...of which 80 percent is 60 kt...a GPS dropsonde in the northeast eyewall supports upgrading Lili to a hurricane. This drop had 81 kt at 14 meters elevation...and a low-layer mean wind of 90 kt...which adjusts to about 73 kt at the surface. The advisory intensity is set to 65 kt...and is a compromise between the adjusted values from the aircraft and dropsonde.

The initial motion is 300/9. This heading has been quite constant for the last 12 hours or so although the forward speed has been increasing. The basic steering flow for Lili will be provided by a deep-layer anticyclone that is expected to remain nearly stationary over Florida and the southeastern United States through the three-day forecast period. This anticyclone should maintain Lili on a relatively steady west-northwest to northwestward track for the next couple of days...and focuses the ultimate threat to the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Model guidance remains well clustered. The official forecast has been shifted only slightly to the left of the previous advisory. Lili appears poised for some fairly significant strengthening. The waters in the northwestern Gulf are high-octane...and there is a good inner core structure. All five rapid intensification parameters from the SHIPS model are satisfied. The only negative I can see is a limited outflow pattern to the north. The official forecast has been adjusted upward from the previous advisory...and is in good agreement with the experimental SHIPS model that includes the effect of total ocean heat content. Lili will have favorable waters for about 48 hours...after which the heat content in the northern Gulf is a little less. However...Lili should be moving fast enough not to be affected by the shallower warm layer there. In addition...an upper-level low currently in the western Gulf is expected to continue northwestward over the next 48 hours...and leave a favorable upper-level antycyclonic flow over the entire Gulf. Bottom line is that we should have a major hurricane nearing the Gulf coastline in three days time. Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 30/1500z 19.8n 80.0w 65 kts 12hr VT 01/0000z 20.6n 81.5w 75 kts 24hr VT 01/1200z 21.7n 83.5w 85 kts 36hr VT 02/0000z 23.0n 86.1w 90 kts 48hr VT 02/1200z 24.5n 88.5w 100 kts 72hr VT 03/1200z 28.0n 92.5w 105 kts


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: hurricane; lili
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-6061-80 ... 301 next last
Heads up in western La., northeastern Tx. This one could be much more serious than Isidore.
1 posted on 09/30/2002 8:07:02 AM PDT by dennis1x
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: dennis1x
Hurricane watch bump.
2 posted on 09/30/2002 8:10:28 AM PDT by blam
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dennis1x
Bottom line is that we should have a major hurricane nearing the Gulf coastline in three days time.

Doesn't sound too good.

3 posted on 09/30/2002 8:11:31 AM PDT by Quilla
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dennis1x
Didn't we do this again a week and a half ago?
Didn't we do this again a week and a half ago?

4 posted on 09/30/2002 8:13:15 AM PDT by mhking
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dennis1x
Here's the latest strike probability map on Lili from www.wunderground.com


5 posted on 09/30/2002 8:14:53 AM PDT by Severa
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: mhking
yep...and the Yucatan saved us a severe blow....might not be that lucky this time.
6 posted on 09/30/2002 8:16:43 AM PDT by dennis1x
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: dennis1x
Here we go again. (sigh)
7 posted on 09/30/2002 8:17:45 AM PDT by alnick
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dennis1x
Track Hurricane Lili:

Hurricane Java Plotter

8 posted on 09/30/2002 8:17:52 AM PDT by ex-Texan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: mhking
Don't laugh! I know a broad (yes, broad) named Lili. Trust me, if the storm is anything like it's namesake it will be a bi#ch (apologies to any other Lili's out there).
9 posted on 09/30/2002 8:18:56 AM PDT by fone
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: dennis1x
People along the Gulf Coast are really going to grow to HATE Thursdays...



10 posted on 09/30/2002 8:19:54 AM PDT by who knows what evil?
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dennis1x
Current track projection (from WWL-TV/New Orleans):


11 posted on 09/30/2002 8:20:06 AM PDT by mhking
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: mhking
If the center passes to the WEST of New Orleans, the counter-clockwise circulation could drive a NASTY storm surge right up the Mississippi River/Delta region. The already-saturated ground isn't going to help, either.



12 posted on 09/30/2002 8:36:38 AM PDT by who knows what evil?
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: who knows what evil?
current forecast has it about 100 miles south of new orleans at its closest point which would minimize effects.
13 posted on 09/30/2002 8:40:07 AM PDT by dennis1x
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: dennis1x; Admin Moderator
Followed your comments on Isidore -- you were right on the money about it not strengthening in the Gulf. This one appears to be much more dangerous.

Admin moderator -- it would be a good thing to keep this thread near the top of the breaking news list for the next several days; lots of folks will be checking in to see the latest information.
14 posted on 09/30/2002 8:41:20 AM PDT by CedarDave
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: dennis1x
This thing has me NERVOUS. I'm flying to FLA on Wednesday for 4 days of fishing off the Florida keys. I was under the mistaken impression that if I scheduled in October I would get around hurricane season.
15 posted on 09/30/2002 8:49:44 AM PDT by SoDak
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoDak
Common misconception is that Hurricane season ends in August/September. Peak season is Sep 10th. More likely to have a hurricane during the 1st week of October than the first week of August.

That said, assuming your arent flying out of Houston or New Orleans, you should be fine in the Keys in 4 days.
16 posted on 09/30/2002 8:53:29 AM PDT by dennis1x
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: dennis1x
I wish I knew what he meant by MAJOR hurricane. A Category 1 isn't a major hurricane, in my opinion. It will ruin your day if it's a direct hit on your home, but it's not a killer.

If they expect it to get bigger than that, I'm going to get mighty nervous.

17 posted on 09/30/2002 8:57:57 AM PDT by Dog Gone
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dennis1x
...current forecast has it about 100 miles south of new orleans at its closest point which would minimize effects.

"Current forecast" being the operative words here...



18 posted on 09/30/2002 8:59:48 AM PDT by who knows what evil?
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: Dog Gone
Major hurricane is defined as Cat3 or higher.
19 posted on 09/30/2002 9:02:26 AM PDT by dennis1x
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: SoDak
Some friends cancelled a trip to Key West last week when Isidore scooted by there. The hotel would not give them a break four days before their scheduled arrival--even though they only planned to delay the trip.

You can keep an eye on marine conditions here:

Florida Keys Marine Forecast

Looks the like worst for Key West waters will be through Wednesday.

20 posted on 09/30/2002 9:03:41 AM PDT by NautiNurse
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-6061-80 ... 301 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson