Hurricane Lili: Major Hurricane to threaten NW Gulf Coast.

NHC | NHC

[dennis1x]

Hurricane Lili Discussion Number 36

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 30, 2002

although flight-level winds do not quite support hurricane intensity...as the peak 850 mb wind reported by the reconnaissance aircraft was 75 kt...of which 80 percent is 60 kt...a GPS dropsonde in the northeast eyewall supports upgrading Lili to a hurricane. This drop had 81 kt at 14 meters elevation...and a low-layer mean wind of 90 kt...which adjusts to about 73 kt at the surface. The advisory intensity is set to 65 kt...and is a compromise between the adjusted values from the aircraft and dropsonde.

The initial motion is 300/9. This heading has been quite constant for the last 12 hours or so although the forward speed has been increasing. The basic steering flow for Lili will be provided by a deep-layer anticyclone that is expected to remain nearly stationary over Florida and the southeastern United States through the three-day forecast period. This anticyclone should maintain Lili on a relatively steady west-northwest to northwestward track for the next couple of days...and focuses the ultimate threat to the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Model guidance remains well clustered. The official forecast has been shifted only slightly to the left of the previous advisory. Lili appears poised for some fairly significant strengthening. The waters in the northwestern Gulf are high-octane...and there is a good inner core structure. All five rapid intensification parameters from the SHIPS model are satisfied. The only negative I can see is a limited outflow pattern to the north. The official forecast has been adjusted upward from the previous advisory...and is in good agreement with the experimental SHIPS model that includes the effect of total ocean heat content. Lili will have favorable waters for about 48 hours...after which the heat content in the northern Gulf is a little less. However...Lili should be moving fast enough not to be affected by the shallower warm layer there. In addition...an upper-level low currently in the western Gulf is expected to continue northwestward over the next 48 hours...and leave a favorable upper-level antycyclonic flow over the entire Gulf. Bottom line is that we should have a major hurricane nearing the Gulf coastline in three days time. Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 30/1500z 19.8n 80.0w 65 kts 12hr VT 01/0000z 20.6n 81.5w 75 kts 24hr VT 01/1200z 21.7n 83.5w 85 kts 36hr VT 02/0000z 23.0n 86.1w 90 kts 48hr VT 02/1200z 24.5n 88.5w 100 kts 72hr VT 03/1200z 28.0n 92.5w 105 kts

[dennis1x]

Heads up in western La., northeastern Tx. This one could be much more serious than Isidore.

[blam]

Hurricane watch bump.

[Quilla]

Bottom line is that we should have a major hurricane nearing the Gulf coastline in three days time.

Doesn't sound too good.

[mhking]

Didn't we do this again a week and a half ago?
Didn't we do this again a week and a half ago?

[Severa]

Here's the latest strike probability map on Lili from www.wunderground.com

[dennis1x]

yep...and the Yucatan saved us a severe blow....might not be that lucky this time.

[alnick]

Here we go again. (sigh)

[ex-Texan]

Track Hurricane Lili:

Hurricane Java Plotter

[fone]

Don't laugh! I know a broad (yes, broad) named Lili. Trust me, if the storm is anything like it's namesake it will be a bi#ch (apologies to any other Lili's out there).

[who knows what evil?]

People along the Gulf Coast are really going to grow to HATE Thursdays...

[mhking]

Current track projection (from WWL-TV/New Orleans):

[who knows what evil?]

If the center passes to the WEST of New Orleans, the counter-clockwise circulation could drive a NASTY storm surge right up the Mississippi River/Delta region. The already-saturated ground isn't going to help, either.

[dennis1x]

current forecast has it about 100 miles south of new orleans at its closest point which would minimize effects.

[CedarDave]

Followed your comments on Isidore -- you were right on the money about it not strengthening in the Gulf. This one appears to be much more dangerous.

Admin moderator -- it would be a good thing to keep this thread near the top of the breaking news list for the next several days; lots of folks will be checking in to see the latest information.

[SoDak]

This thing has me NERVOUS. I'm flying to FLA on Wednesday for 4 days of fishing off the Florida keys. I was under the mistaken impression that if I scheduled in October I would get around hurricane season.

[dennis1x]

Common misconception is that Hurricane season ends in August/September. Peak season is Sep 10th. More likely to have a hurricane during the 1st week of October than the first week of August.

That said, assuming your arent flying out of Houston or New Orleans, you should be fine in the Keys in 4 days.

[Dog Gone]

I wish I knew what he meant by MAJOR hurricane. A Category 1 isn't a major hurricane, in my opinion. It will ruin your day if it's a direct hit on your home, but it's not a killer.

If they expect it to get bigger than that, I'm going to get mighty nervous.

[who knows what evil?]

...current forecast has it about 100 miles south of new orleans at its closest point which would minimize effects.

"Current forecast" being the operative words here...

[dennis1x]

Major hurricane is defined as Cat3 or higher.

[NautiNurse]

Some friends cancelled a trip to Key West last week when Isidore scooted by there. The hotel would not give them a break four days before their scheduled arrival--even though they only planned to delay the trip.

You can keep an eye on marine conditions here:

Florida Keys Marine Forecast

Looks the like worst for Key West waters will be through Wednesday.