Lili bringing wind, rain to Cuba, Jamaica, Caymans

usatoday.com ^ | 9/29/02 | usatoday

[scab4faa]

KINGSTON, Jamaica (AP)

[scab4faa]

Gulf coast lookout!

[terilyn]

Do you want THIS man to speak for you?

Make sure your voice continues to be heard

Donate here by secure server

Or mail checks to
FreeRepublic , LLC
PO BOX 9771
FRESNO, CA 93794

[Dog Gone]

Hmmm, most of the models have the storm aiming straight for Texas. One has it hitting Lousiana.

[Dog Gone]

Tropical Storm Lili Discussion Number 33
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 29, 2002

 
aircraft fixes over the past 12 hours continue to show a slow 
westward motion just offshore the north coast of Jamaica. Lili has a 
tight inner-core circulation with a well-defined eye this is only 8 
to 10 nmi in diameter. Deep convection has continued to develop 
around the low-level center and outer banding features have also 
improved during the day. The highest 850 mb flight-level wind 
reported this afternoon was 66 kt...equal to about 53 kt at
the surface...and a minimum pressure of 995 mb. Upper-level outflow
remains good in all quadrants and it too continues to improve.

 
The initial motion estimate is 270/04. Lili has steadily wobbled 
slowly westward just offshore the north coast of Jamaica today. But 
as mentioned in the previous discussion...a good southwesterly surge 
located south of Jamaica will probably jog Lili northward a little  
once the cyclone clears the western end of Jamaica in about 12 
hours. Beyond that...there is no siginificant change to the previous 
forecast track or reasoning. Lili is expected to move 
west-northwestward around the southern periphery of a strengthening
subtropical high that is expected to extend westward across Florida 
and the southeast U.S...and by 72 hours...into the eastern Gulf of 
Mexico. The NHC model guidance has become more convergent and is in 
excellent agreement on taking Lili across western Cuba in 36 to 48 
hours. The UKMET and NOGAPS models remain on the far left side of 
the model suite...while the AVN/GFS and AVN/GFS ensemble models are 
on the far right side of the guidance envelope. The GFDL has 
actually done the best with the overall track and direction of 
Lili...albeit too fast. The official forecast track is just an 
extension of the previous track and is again similar to the GFDL in 
direction...but slower like the AVN/GFS model. 

 
The intensity forecast remains problematic since Lili has maintained 
a small diameter eye all day. Usually...rapid intensification occurs 
with such systems...and the latest ships intensity model is 
indicating that all five 24-hour rapid intensification criteria have 
been for the first time. However...the close proximity to Jamaica 
will likely prevent rapid intensification from occuring for at least 
the next 12 hours or so. However...upper-level conditions are 
expected to be very favorable for significant strengthening to occur 
in the 24 to 36 hours time frame...and rapid intensification could 
certainly occur at that time. The official intensity forecast 
remains below the ships intensity model...but only because of the 
possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle beginning as alluded to 
by the recon flight crew during their last pass through the center. 
The SHIPS model brings Lili to 94 kt in 72 hours...while the GFDL 
model strengthens Lili to 102 kt in 60 hours. It is also noteworthy 
to mention that the experimental ships upper-ocean heat content 
intensity forecast...which did quite well with Isidore...brings Lili 
up to 111 kt in 72 hours.

 
Forecaster Stewart

[Dog Gone]

[NautiNurse]

This storm is so uncanny in its track...Florida local weather pundits are merely giving a cursory Oh...by the way...

We have all heard about lightning striking twice.

[southernnorthcarolina]

I recall reading that hurricanes rarely originate this late in the season in the Gulf of Mexico. But getting to the Gulf from the Caribbean is something else. The last one almost "threaded the needle" between Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula, but had most of its punch taken out when it drifted south over the Yucatan. Lucky for the U.S. Gulf Coast, but not, of course, for that part of Mexico. Will we be lucky again?

[Ditter]

I have been gone this weekend. Have you heard that there is anything coming like a front, that would give
Texas some protection, like we had from Isidore?

[Dog Gone]

Apparently not. And a high pressure system over the southeast is apparently going to keep it moving northwest. The good thing is that it's moving fast enough that it might not have time to strengthen above a Category 1 hurricane.

Right now, the area between Houston and New Orleans looks most vulnerable.

[NautiNurse]

Satellite loop looks like Lili just took a W-SW jog on the last frame. She's just shy of hurricane strength now.

Can't even imagine how Jamaaica, W Cuba will tolerate this. I imagine the ground is still saturated from Issie.

[Dog Gone]

Tropical Storm Lili Discussion Number 35...Corrected
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 30, 2002
Lili is very near hurricane strength. Lower-layer average winds from GPS dropsondes a few hours ago supported 58 kt. The satellite images after the eclipse blackout show a CDO feature with a loosely-connected band...in the vicinity of Jamaica. Earlier aircraft observations indicated a closed eyewall structure. As the cyclone moves farther west of Jamaica...and over the area of very high upper oceanic heat content south of Cuba...strengthening is likely. I consider the official intensity forecast for the next 1-2 days to be a conservative one. Lili should remain in a weak shear environment as it moves over the Gulf of Mexico in a couple of days...so continued strengthening is likely. Curiously...the GFDL model...which has been known to over-intensify tropical cyclones... only brings Lili to 87 kt over the Gulf. Perhaps that is because the waters over the northern Gulf are not as warm as they are to the south. Analyses from NHC show that there has been some reduction in the oceanic heat content over parts of the Gulf traversed by Isidore last week. Notwithstanding...the official forecast presumes that the Gulf waters are still plenty warm enough to support a strong hurricane. After wobbling toward the west several hours ago...recent satellite images indicate that Lili is now pretty much back on track...with an estimated initial motion of 290/8. A pronounced deep-layer anticyclone is predicted to remain in place over Florida and the southeast United States through the forecast period. Therefore the official forecast track...like the previous ones...shows a motion toward the west-northwest over the next few days. The track guidance models are in fairly good agreement although the U.K. Met office model is slower and farther west then most...whereas the GFS and GFDL are faster and more the north and east. This forecast is closer to the latter two guidance tracks. The 72 hour forecast point obviously implies a threat to the northern or northwestern Gulf of Mexico coast. However...it is still too early to be more specific about the threat since the average error in these 3-day track forecasts is over 200 miles. Forecaster Pasch

[Ditter]

Hi Nautinurse, where can I go to get a look at the hurricane?

[Dog Gone]

You can see the storm here.

[NautiNurse]

This morning, you can see the storm in the GoM view. For some reason, the storm looks more "together" in the Gulf views, than the Caribbean shots.

Infrared Satellite Gulf of Mexico (small)

Visible GoM loop (small)

[NautiNurse]

Latest recon shows a 5 point drop in pressure to 986 MB over 6 hours.

[Ditter]

Thanks ;9}

[Ditter]

Thanks. ;9}